The Governor of Yobe State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Yobe State is a large, diverse northeastern state in the process of recovering from the worst of the Boko Haram insurgency. Still facing threats from Boko Haram and ISWAP, the state also has to contend with an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and low education rates.
Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed Yobe's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Buni won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, house of representatives, and house of assembly levels were carried by APC nominees.
Over the course of Buni's term, his administration stated focuses included rebuilding the state's educational system, timely payment of civil servant salaries, and upgrading and repairing transportation infrastructure.[6][7] However, Buni's political situation changed about 13 months into his term when he was appointed National Caretaker Chairman of All Progressives Congress; choosing to serve in the Abuja-based position while continuing as governor was controversial, even more so after he admitted to spending only "three or four days in Yobe" every month.[8] Questioned by the PDP over the constitutionality of holding the second job, Buni remained at the helm of the APC until the party's March 2022 convention. After leaving office, analysts questioned if Buni could successfully return to his state after withdrawing to Abuja for nearly two years and, supposedly, lobbying to become the party's vice presidential nominee instead of returning to the governorship.[9]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][10]
All Progressives Congress
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[11] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[12] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[13][14][15][16]
On the primary date, Buni was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed. In his acceptance speech, Buni thanked the party while pledging to continue the work of his administration.[4]
Nominated
Mai Mala Buni: Governor (2019–present) and APC Caretaker National Chairman (2020–present)[4]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[17] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[18][19]
On primary day, three candidates contested an indirect primary at the August 27th Stadium in Damaturu that ended with Sharif Abdullahi emerging as the PDP nominee after results showed him winning about 55% of the delegates' votes.[5]
In the months after the primaries, analysts noted the relative weakness of the PDP in Yobe along with several major defections from the party as reasons it would be difficult to challenge the strong APC hold on the state. However, the PDP claimed Abdullahi had mass grassroots support and would shock the APC while the APC used infrastructural projects as evidence of Buni's impact during his term in office.[22]
By 2023, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Yobe State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 52.5% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 40.0%. The result—which was labeled as an upset as projections had favored Tinubu—led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race and its potential competitiveness. Gubernatorial campaign analysis from after the presidential election noted that PDP had gained momentum from the presidential results while a surprised APC was renewing campaign efforts.[23] Nevertheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Buni to win while a Vanguard piece predicted that Buni was favoured but "may need to work harder for re-election."[24][25]
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[27] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[28]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[29]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[30]
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