2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State
Registered	2,196,566
President before election; Muhammadu Buhari; APC	Elected President ; Bola Tinubu; APC

The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.^[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.

Background

Adamawa State is a large, diverse northeastern state in the process of recovering from the worst of the Boko Haram insurgency. The state also has to contend with an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector and low education rates along with continued security challenges from Boko Haram and ISWAP to sustained conflict between herders and farmers.

Politically, the 2019 Adamawa elections were a swing back to the PDP as its presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state back from Buhari and Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri unseated APC Governor Bindo Jibrilla. Legislatively the PDP also gained ground, winning two Senate seats, five House of Representatives seats, and control of the House of Assembly.

Polling

Polling organisation/client	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Others	Undecided	Undisclosed	Not voting
			Tinubu APC	Obi LP	Kwankwaso NNPP	Abubakar PDP

BantuPage	December 2022	N/A	17%	7%	2%	44%	–	24%	2%	4%
Nextier (Adamawa crosstabs of national poll)	27 January 2023	N/A	33.8%	30.8%	6.3%	29.2%	–	–	–	–
SBM Intelligence for EiE (Adamawa crosstabs of national poll)	22 January-6 February 2023	N/A	9%	11%	–	76%	5%	–	–	–

Projections

Source	Projection		As of
Africa Elects^[a]^[2]	Safe Abubakar		24 February 2023
Dataphyte^[b]^[3]
	Tinubu:	24.51%	11 February 2023
	Obi:	20.60%
	Abubakar:	37.55%
	Others:	17.34%
Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence^[c]^[4]	Abubakar		17 February 2023
SBM Intelligence^[d]^[5]	Abubakar		15 December 2022
ThisDay^[e]^[6]
	Tinubu:	20%	27 December 2022
	Obi:	10%
	Kwankwaso:	5%
	Abubakar:	60%
	Others/Undecided:	5%
The Nation^[f]^[7]^[8]	Battleground		12-19 February 2023

General election

Results

2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State
Party		Candidate	%
	A	Christopher Imumolen
	AA	Hamza al-Mustapha
	ADP	Yabagi Sani
	APP	Osita Nnadi
	AAC	Omoyele Sowore
	ADC	Dumebi Kachikwu
	APC	Bola Tinubu
	APGA	Peter Umeadi
	APM	Princess Chichi Ojei
	BP	Sunday Adenuga
	LP	Peter Obi
	NRM	Felix Johnson Osakwe
	New Nigeria Peoples Party	Rabiu Kwankwaso
	PRP	Kola Abiola
	PDP	Atiku Abubakar
	SDP	Adewole Adebayo
	YPP	Malik Ado-Ibrahim
	ZLP	Dan Nwanyanwu
Total votes			100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			N/A
Turnout

By senatorial district

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial district	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Adamawa Central Senatorial District^[g]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Adamawa North Senatorial District^[h]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Adamawa South Senatorial District^[i]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By federal constituency

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal constituency	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Demsa/Numan/Lamurde Federal Constituency^[j]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Fufore/Song Federal Constituency^[k]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Gombi/Hong Federal Constituency^[l]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Guyuk/Shelleng Federal Constituency^[m]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Madagali/Michika Federal Constituency^[n]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Maiha/Mubi North/Mubi South Federal Constituency^[o]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Mayo Belwa/Ganye/Toungo/Jada Federal Constituency^[p]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Yola North/Yola South/Girei Federal Constituency^[q]	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD

By local government area

The results of the election by local government area.

Local government area	Bola Tinubu APC		Atiku Abubakar PDP		Peter Obi LP		Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP		Others		Total valid votes	Turnout (%)
									Others
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Demsa^[9]^[10]	5,746	17.89%	17,166	53.46%	7,962	24.80%	199	0.62%	1,037	3.23%	32,110	34.80%
Fufore^[11]^[12]	12,633	31.03%	26,059	64.01%	897	2.20%	508	1.25%	615	1.51%	40,712	32.88%
Ganye^[13]^[14]	10,112	29.93%	21,672	64.15%	1,069	3.16%	191	0.57%	739	2.19%	33,783	34.76%
Girei^[15]^[16]	8,531	27.89%	17,557	57.40%	3,748	12.25%	254	0.83%	500	1.63%	30,590	37.17%
Gombi^[17]	8,341	%	21,744	%	2,628	%	541	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Guyuk^[18]^[19]	5,904	20.56%	13,942	48.55%	8,165	28.43%	91	0.32%	615	2.14%	28,717	%
Jada^[20]	8,479	%	28,561	%	984	%	186	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Lamurde^[21]^[22]	3,645	15.05%	9,912	40.94%	9,744	40.24%	188	0.78%	724	2.99%	24,213	38.90%
Madagali^[23]	4,935	%	18,077	%	4,034	%	201	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Maiha^[24]	7,335	%	14,088	%	440	%	146	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Michika^[25]	7,062	%	28,328	%	6,047	%	177	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Mubi North^[26]	10,078	%	21,528	%	12,261	%	1,253	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Mubi South^[27]	9,399	%	15,463	%	2,936	%	519	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Numan^[28]^[29]	5,115	%	8,984	%	10,229	%	168	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Shelleng^[30]	6,213	27.64%	14,765	65.67%	1,028	4.57%	69	0.31%	407	1.81%	22,482	%
Song^[31]^[32]	10,993	26.05%	20,406	48.36%	8,506	20.16%	1,223	2.90%	1,065	2.53%	42,193	39.97%
Toungo^[33]^[34]	4,163	%	7,401	%	651	%	59	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Yola North^[35]	15,885	%	32,136	%	9,925	%	584	%	TBD	%	TBD	%
Yola South^[36]	13,552	27.08%	31,774	63.49%	3,469	6.93%	379	0.76%	873	1.74%	50,047	32.68%
Totals	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%	TBD	%

Notes

^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore, Girei, Gombi, Hong, Song, Yola North, and Yola South.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Ganye, Guyuk, Jada, Lamurde, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Shelleng, and Toungo.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Numan, and Lamurde.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Fufore and Song.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Gombi and Hong.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Guyuk and Shelleng.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Madagali and Michika.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Maiha, Mubi North, and Mubi South.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Mayo-Belwa, Ganye, Toungo, and Jada.
^ Comprising the local government areas of Yola North, Yola South, and Girei.

References

^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Demsa LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "DEMSA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Fufore LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "FUFORE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Ganye LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GANYE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "Girei LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GIREI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "GOMBI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Guyuk LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GUYUK LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "JADA LGA (ATIKU ABUBAKAR'S HOMETOWN)" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Lamurde LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "Lamurde LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MADAGALI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "And we're back on. MAIHA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MICHIKA LGA, Adamawa state" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI SOUTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PETER OBI WINS LGA IN ADAMAWA PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Numan LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "NUMAN LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Shelleng LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Song LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "SONG LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Toungo LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "TUNGO[sic] LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "YOLA NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
^ Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "YOLA SOUTH" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[2] AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".

[4] Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[6] EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.

[8] SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).

[10] ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.

[12] The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."

[15] Comprising the local government areas of Fufore, Girei, Gombi, Hong, Song, Yola North, and Yola South.

[16] Comprising the local government areas of Madagali, Maiha, Michika, Mubi North, and Mubi South.

[17] Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Ganye, Guyuk, Jada, Lamurde, Mayo-Belwa, Numan, Shelleng, and Toungo.

[18] Comprising the local government areas of Demsa, Numan, and Lamurde.

[19] Comprising the local government areas of Fufore and Song.

[20] Comprising the local government areas of Gombi and Hong.

[21] Comprising the local government areas of Guyuk and Shelleng.

[22] Comprising the local government areas of Madagali and Michika.

[23] Comprising the local government areas of Maiha, Mubi North, and Mubi South.

[24] Comprising the local government areas of Mayo-Belwa, Ganye, Toungo, and Jada.

[25] Comprising the local government areas of Yola North, Yola South, and Girei.

[New_Dates-1] Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.

[Africa_Elects_state_ratings-3] Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.

[Dataphyte_February_projections-5] "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. Retrieved 11 February 2023.

[EiE-SBM_February_projections-7] "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[9] "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[ThisDay_December_projections-11] "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.

[TN_February_projections-13] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[14] Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.

[26] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Demsa LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[27] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "DEMSA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[28] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Fufore LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[29] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "FUFORE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[30] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Ganye LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[31] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GANYE LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[32] TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "Girei LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[33] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GIREI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[34] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "GOMBI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[35] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Guyuk LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[36] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "GUYUK LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[37] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "JADA LGA (ATIKU ABUBAKAR'S HOMETOWN)" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[38] TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Lamurde LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[39] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "Lamurde LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[40] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MADAGALI LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[41] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "And we're back on. MAIHA LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[42] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MICHIKA LGA, Adamawa state" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[43] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[44] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "MUBI SOUTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[45] TheCable [@thecableng] (26 February 2023). "PETER OBI WINS LGA IN ADAMAWA PRESIDENTIAL RESULT Numan LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[46] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "NUMAN LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[47] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Shelleng LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[48] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Song LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[49] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "SONG LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[50] TheCable [@thecableng] (27 February 2023). "Toungo LGA, Adamawa" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[51] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "TUNGO[sic] LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[52] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (27 February 2023). "YOLA NORTH LGA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

[53] Yemisi Adegoke [@briticoyemo] (26 February 2023). "YOLA SOUTH" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

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2023 Nigerian presidential election in Adamawa State

Background

Polling

Projections

General election

Results

By senatorial district

By federal constituency

By local government area

See also

Notes

References

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