The governor of Katsina State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Katsina State is a highly populated, northwestern state mainly inhabited by two ethnic groups Hausas and Fulanis. It has a growing economy that is faced by rising insecurity, desertification, and low education rates.
Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Bello Masari won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees. At the beginning of his term, Bello Masari said his administration would focus on security, agriculture, water resource management, and education.[6] In terms of his performance, Bello Masari was praised for increasing his government's diversity but was heavily criticized for his response to rising insecurity.[7][8][9][10][11]
Primary elections
The primary election took place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][12] According to some activists from the state's northern senatorial district, an informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the north to produce the next governor as since the 1999 return of democracy, all Katsina governors have come from either the Central or South senatorial districts.[13] On the other hand, groups from Katsina South Senatorial District were pushing for the office to be retained by their district by claiming that Katsina Central Senatorial District produced the governor for four terms and thus Katsina South should as well.[14]
All Progressives Congress
In early April 2022, articles suggested that the state APC zoned its nomination to the Katsina Central Senatorial District, but this claim was swiftly denied by Bello Masari media aide who said no decision on zoning had been made by the party.[15]
Pre-primary analysis centered around which candidate would receive Bello Masari's endorsement or tacit support.[14] On the primary date, the candidates contested an indirect primary at the Muhammadu Dikko Stadium in Katsina that ended with former federal agency head Umar Dikko Radda emerging as the APC nominee after results showed him narrowly defeating Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and Abbas Umar Masanawa with about 29% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Dikko Radda praised the primary organizers and called for unity with his former opponents.[5][16] Inuwa initially publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda;[17] however, he later decried the results amid mass defections of his supporters to the NNPP.[18] Post-primary analysis noted the potential bribery of delegates during the primary along with the internal party crisis as Inuwa and others kicked while Dikko Radda had threatened to remove officeholders that did not support him.[19] Dikko Radda initially picked Yusuf Aliyu Musawa as his running mate but Aliyu Musawa withdrew and was replaced by Faruk Lawal Jobe in mid-August.[20] In October, Inuwa defected to the PDP.[21]
On the primary date, the four candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Garba Yakubu Lado—former Senator and the party's 2019 nominee—winning the nomination after results showed him defeating runner-up Salisu Yusuf Majigiri by a 44% margin. In his acceptance speech, Lado praised the primary organizers and thanked the delegates while Yusuf Majigiri publicly conceded and pledged to support Dikko Radda.[4]
Post-primary analysis focused on the respective strengths of Radda and Lado but also noted the divides within the state APC that Radda had to contend with.[40] As the general election campaign began in July and August, reporting also pointed out other potential factors like the strength of the APC's incumbency, APC members aggrieved by contentious party primaries, and Lado's southern origin along with the more prominent minor party nominees—Muhammad Nura Khalil (NNPP), Imrana Jino (PRP), and Ibrahim Zakkari (SDP).[41][42][43] One of these factors—fallout from the APC primary, dominated much of the pre-campaign period as politicians like Khalil and Lado met with APC primary runner-up Mustapha Muhammad Inuwa and attempted to woo him into their parties; in response, the APC sent its vice presidential nominee Kashim Shettima and others to convince Inuwa to support Radda.[44][45] However, the Shettima visit failed to prevent Inuwa's defection as he joined the PDP in mid-October with APC sources noting that the defection was likely to hurt the party in the general election.[46][47] On the other hand, Lado also faced internal issues as a split emerged in the state PDP in early November as his camp attempted to remove state party chair Yusuf Salisu Majigiri, who's backed by former Governor Ibrahim Shema. Lado and his allies accused Salisu Majigiri of supporting the APC and journalists noted rumors that Salisu Majigiri planned to suspend Lado from the party.[48] Although Lado was suspended, Salisu Majigiri claimed that he had already stepped down as party chairman due to his candidacy for the House of Representatives; in an attempt to avoid further rifts, acting party chairman Salisu Lawal Uli ended Lado's suspension but it was too late as Lado's faction claimed Magaji Lawal was the rightful party chairman.[49][50][51] To worsen the situation for the PDP, Shema reportedly met with Radda in a move that fueled rumors that his bloc may tacitly support the APC nominee.[52]
The PDP party crisis continued into the new year, as analysts labeled the scandals as actively hurtful to Lado's campaign by January 2023.[53] In a Daily Trust article from mid-January, the crisis was labeled as the Lado's biggest issue while the largest problem of the Dikko Radda campaign was the unpopularity of incumbent APC administrations.[54] The month also hosted two debates, the first one conducted by Media Trust Group on 14 January and attended by Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, Lado, and Zakari;[55] while the second debate was organized by BBC Hausa on 22 January and only Dikko Radda, Khalil, Jino, and Lado were invited to participate. Held at the Local Government Service Commission in the city of Katsina, the BBC debate reviewed topics ranging from education to security.[56] After the debates, the APC continued its attempts to woo Shema into the party, with the state government even withdrawing its corruption case against Shema in a move criticized as politically motivated.[57]
The next month, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Katsina State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 46.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 45.6% and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) at 6.6%. The result—considered a surprise as Katsina is Buhari's hame state, led to increased attention on the gubernatorial race. Campaign analysis in the wake of the presidential election from Vanguard noted that the APC had retained most downballot offices and appeared to be in a strong position.[58] On the other hand, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Lado to win due to the presidential election results and Masari's unpopularity.[59]
Election debates
2022 Katsina State gubernatorial election debates
Date
Organisers
P Present[a] S Surrogate[b] NI Not invited A Absent invitee
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[61] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[62]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[e] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[f] – Final day of the official campaign period
Pre-election
Due to widespread insecurity in the state, civil society groups raised concern about the safe conduct of the election in heavily insecure areas.[65]
^Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee attending the event.
^Denotes a party gubernatorial nominee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[63]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[64]
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, OCTOBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. We also take cognizance of the appointment of an Imo State indigene, Prince Uche Okonkwo by Governor Masari as his Special Assistant on Nigerian Indigenous Christians. This, we believe, will help build and deepen a culture of diversity in the state and engender a more inclusive government.
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, AUGUST, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. For many, the deteriorating security situation in Katsina is nothing but a failure of leadership on the part of Governor Masari. In our view, he failed to show capacity and provide needed leadership for the security agencies in the state
^"RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, SEPTEMBER, 2019: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. Though we note Masari's latest efforts at dealing with the challenge, by interfacing with some bandits, he takes the ultimate blame for allowing the issue to fester, allowing it to grow into a monster before responding.
^"NIGERIAN GOVERNORS: Fumbling, wobbling dominate June 2020 performance". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. Governor Aminu Masari of Katsina looks to be gradually losing his hold on the state, as bandits relentlessly attack communities and displace citizens, so much so that the governor within the month confessed that attacks by bandits, and not COVID-19, is the problem the state is facing. We are concerned that Masari's peace moves have not only come to nought but emboldened the bandits, leaving the governor helpless and seemingly without new ideas on what to do.
^Ajaja, Tunde; Ede, Raphael; Odogwu, Ted; Odey, Patrick; Tyopuusu, Justin; Oyelude, Olaide; Ochei, Matthew; Naku, Dennis; Wakaso, Aisha; Nwakanma, Sunday; Nnachi, Edward; Abraham, James (23 April 2022). "2023: Ganduje, Okowa, Ikpeazu, Ortom, Wike others in succession crisis". The Punch. Retrieved 23 April 2022. In Katsina State, there is agitation from Katsina North that the zone has not produced the governor before and should be allowed this time. The incumbent, Aminu Masari, has, however, not shown preference for any aspirant. A Daura-based lawyer, Ado Lalu, said despite having the highest number of local governments at 12, the zone should be allowed to produce Masari's successor.
^ abcOdufowokan, 'Dare. "2023: The battle to succeed Masari in Katsina". The Nation. Retrieved 23 April 2022. The four APC guber aspirants and the Local Government Areas they hail from are: Mustapha Mohammed Inuwa, currently the Secretary to the State Government (SSG) in the State, who is from Dan Musa LGA; Ahmed Musa Dangiwa from Kankia LGA; Alhaji Diko Radda from Charanchi LGA and Farouk Lawal Jobe from Kankara LGA.
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