The primaries, scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022, resulted in Yahaya being renominated by the All Progressives Congress unopposed on 26 May while the Peoples Democratic Party nominated businessman Mohammed Jibrin Barde on 25 May.[4][5]
Electoral system
The Governor of Gombe State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Gombe State is a small, diverse northeastern state with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, desertification, and some inter-ethnic violence.
Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized by a large swing towards the state APC. In federal elections, Buhari held the state for the APC while the APC swept all senate seats by gaining two PDP-held seats. Similarly, the APC gained two PDP-held House seats to sweep all House of Representatives elections. On the state level, the APC gained the governorship and the majority in the House of Assembly. The 2019 elections also bridged the political divide between the diverse, Christian-majority Southern region and the mainly Hausa and Fulani, Muslim-majority Northern and Central regions as the former region moved towards the APC in tandem with the latter two regions.[6] During the 2019 to 2023 term, defections rose the PDP's numbers in the federal House while increasing APC numbers in the state assembly.
Over the course of Yahaya's term, his administration stated focuses included education, security, healthcare, and agriculture development. In terms of his performance, Yahaya was praised for healthcare development and high ease of doing business but was criticized for do-nothingness during his first year in office, lack of regular and clean drinking water, the arrests of his critics, and poor handling of the 2021 Mai Tangale appointment which led to deadly religious clashes in Billiri.[7][8][9][10][11][12]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][13]
All Progressives Congress
The year ahead of the APC primary was categorized by a party crisis as the state APC was split between supporters of Senator and former Governor Mohammed Danjuma Goje on one side and the other side supporting incumbent Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya.[14] The crisis forced party officials to take a side and even became violent when an attack on Goje's convoy killed 5 people in November 2021.[15] The crisis also led to some defections from the party, notably when 2019 gubernatorial candidate Jamil Isyaku Gwamna and House of Representatives member Yaya Bauchi Tango both went to the PDP. Although neither Goje nor Yahaya themselves defected, analysts stated that the prolonged party crisis and others' defections could to hurt the APC in the general election.[16][17]
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[18] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[19] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[20][21][22][23]
On the primary date, Yahaya was the sole candidate and won the nomination by voice vote unopposed.[4] In his acceptance speech, Yahaya thanked the party and PresidentMuhammadu Buhari while pledging to continue the work of his administration.[24]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[27] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[28][29]
Ahead of the primary, the main questions were around which candidate would receive the support of de facto Gombe PDP leader Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo along with those perceived as having helped the party since entering opposition in 2019.[30] On the primary date, the six candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Mohammed Jibrin emerging as the PDP nominee after results showed Jibrin winning just under 50% of the delegates' votes.[5] In late June, Jibrin picked Timothy Danlele—a retired civil servant—as his running mate.
Immediately after the primaries in June 2022, observers stated that the nominees were focusing on unifying their respective parties. Although the main feud between Yahaya and Senator Mohammed Danjuma Goje ended before the primaries, Goje's indifference to campaigning for Yahaya if he remained aggrieved began to be viewed as a potential liability for the APC by pundits while analysts noted that the PDP was concerned about the internal APC truce.[37] A few months later in November, analysis again focused on internal party divides as Goje remained absent from Yahaya's campaign while Jibrin had sided with Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike in his dispute with PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar.[38] The PDP divide had greatly escalated after a leaked audio alleged showed Jibrin insulting opposing PDP figures coupled with pre-existing tension between Jibrin and primary runner-up Jamil Isyaku Gwamna.[39] Despite reconciliation attempts, Gwamna left the PDP in early December with groups of supporters to rejoin the APC amid a wave of departures from the PDP throughout December.[40][41]
Just days after the presidential election—in which PDP nominee Atiku Abubakarwon Gombe State, Yahaya issued a broad apology to the state's Christian community during a meeting organised by the Gombe CAN chapter. In the presidential election, predominantly Christian areas like Billiri had mainly voted for PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar and LP nominee Peter Obi in the wake of years of criticism of the Gombe APC for alleged anti-Christian discrimination, most notably during the 2020 Chief Judge scandal[a] and the 2021 Mai Tangale crisis.[b][42] Nevertheless, the EiE-SBM forecast projected Jibrin to win based on "events in the presidential election and the end of Muhammadu Buhari’s influence on northern politics."[43] On the other hand, a piece from Leadership noted that Khamisu Mailantarki (NNPP) could split the opposition vote.[44]
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[46] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[47]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[e] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[f] – Final day of the official campaign period
^The Yahaya administration allegedly refused to nominate the state's most senior judge — Justice Beatrice Iliya — to be state Chief Judge due to her Christian faith.
^Yahaya's selection of a Muslim to become traditional leader over a mainly-Christian area which sparked months of protests and unrest.
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[48]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[49]