Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the All Progressives Grand Alliance nominating former Secretary to the State Government Bernard Odoh on 29 May while both the All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party had two separate parallel primaries.[4] For the APC, one primary nominated Speaker of the House of Assembly Francis Nwifuru on 26 May while another was won by former Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission chairman Elias Mbam on the same day;[5][6][7] in the PDP, one primary nominated businessman Ifeanyi Odii on 30 May as a different primary nominated Senator for Ebonyi Central Joseph Ogba on 6 June.[8][9] By July, INEC recognised Nwifuru as the APC nominee while the PDP nomination was awarded to Odii by the Supreme Court in September.[10][11]
Electoral system
The Governor of Ebonyi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Ebonyi State is a small, Igbo-majority southeasternstate with a growing economy and vast natural areas but facing an underdeveloped yet vital agricultural sector, rising debt, and a low COVID-19 vaccination rate.
Politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a continuation of the PDP's control as Umahi won with over 81% of the vote and the party won every seat in the House of Assembly along with all three senate seats. However, the PDP did lose one House of Representatives seat to the APC after a court ruling and although the state was easily won by PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar, it still swung towards Buhari compared to 2015 and had lower turnout. In the interim between 2019 and 2023, the state's political landscape drastically changed as Umahi defecting to the APC in November 2020 set in motion a wave of other defections that gave the APC control of the House of Assembly. While the defections massively improved the APC's southeastern standing, the legal ramifications are still unknown as a high court briefly removed Umahi and all assemblymembers who also defected from office in March 2022 until the decision was overturned on appeal; it has been appealed further.[citation needed]
Ahead of his second term, Umahi stated focuses included agriculture, economic development, and resource development; however, he was criticized for authoritarian-esque actions. Alarms were raised after Umahi's defection when he ordered security forces to lock the state PDP secretariat in 2021 and when the state PDP spokesman was arrested for criticizing Umahi in 2022; he was also accused of using security forces to harass critics and political opponents.[12][13][14][15][16] At other points during his administration, Umahi was given praise for economic diversification and increasing government transparency while receiving further criticism for blaming IPOB attacks on politicians without evidence and ranting against the judiciary.[17][18][19][20]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][21] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Ebonyi North Senatorial District to have the next governor as Ebonyi North has not held the governorship since 2007.[22] However, some groups such as the Association of Ebonyi State Indigenes in the Diaspora claimed that as one full rotation of districts would be complete in 2023, further zoning was unnecessary.[23][24][25] On the other hand, some leaders in the Izzi subgroup of the Igbo people claim that not only should the governorship be zoned to Ebonyi North, it should go to the Izzi as former Governor Sam Egwu was from a non-Izzi area of Ebonyi North. Meanwhile, some leaders in the Ezaa subgroup of the Igbo people called for their group to hold the governorship as the Ezaa are one of the largest subgroups in the state.[26]
Eventually, the PDP settled on zoning to the "Abakaliki bloc" (the North and Central Senatorial Districts) while APGA and the APC declined to formally zone their nominations.[27]
All Progressives Congress
Ahead of the primary, the state APC constituted a zoning committee that submitted its report in April 2022; along with the zoning committee, Umahi also asked leaders from both the Ezaa and Izzi subethnic groups to put forward candidates.[28][29] While Ezaa APC leaders settled on former Senator Julius Ucha at a meeting in Onueke, the Izzi process was much more contentious as Izzi stakeholders were reportedly divided between backing RMFAC Chairman Elias Mbam or Assembly Speaker Francis Ogbonna Nwifuru.[30][31] After Mbam eventually won out, Nwifuru supporters rushed to endorse him anyway while other Izzi leaders chastised the supportive statement.[31][32][33]
Another cause of intraparty strife were rumours that Umahi was personally supporting Nwifuru. This speculation was confirmed on 23 April 2022 when Umahi endorsed Nwifuru while at a funeral.[34][35][36] Ucha and other candidates derided Umahi's endorsement of Nwifuru as 'undemocratic imposition' that was characteristic of his "high-handed" party leadership style.[37][38] In response, an Umahi aide claimed the endorsement was based on the wide support Nwifuru received from stakeholders and that Umahi's would not prevent internal democracy during the primary.[31]
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[39] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[40] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[41][42][43][44]
On the primary date, two separate factional primaries were held with the grouping backed by Umahi and the state party holding an indirect primary at the Pa Ngele Oruta Township Stadium while the faction supported by Mbam held an indirect primary at Mbam's campaign office. After both primaries were peacefully held, the Stadium primary ended in Nwifuru winning by a wide margin while the Mbam factional primary resulted in his victory.[5][6] Nwifuru was recognized as the legitimate nominee in July by INEC.
Nominated
Francis Nwifuru: House of Assembly member for Izzi West (2011–present) and Speaker of the House of Assembly (2015–present)[45][46][5]
Elias Mbam: Chairman of the Revenue Mobilization Allocation and Fiscal Commission (2010–2015; 2019–2022) and former commissioner (1999–2005)[26][47][48][49][50][6]
In early April 2022, state APGA Chairman Ricky Okorouka announced that the state party would not zone its gubernatorial nomination.[53]
On 25 March 2022, the national APGA announced its primary schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦3 million and the nomination form price at ₦12 million with a 50% discount for women candidates and candidates with disabilities.[54] Forms are to be sold from 29 March to 11 April; after the purchase of forms, gubernatorial candidates are to be screened by a party committee on 22 and 23 April while the screening appeal process is slated for 5 May. Ward congresses are set for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 29 May, in concurrence with all other APGA gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made on 31 May.[55][56]
On the primary date, former Secretary to the State Government Bernard Odoh was the sole candidate and won the nomination unopposed. In his acceptance speech, Odoh derided the APC and PDP along with pledging to lead APGA to victory.[4]
In late September 2021, State PDP Chairman Fred Udeogu announced that the state party had zoned its gubernatorial nomination to the "Abakaliki bloc" (the North and Central Senatorial Districts).[60]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[61] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[62][63]
On the primary date, the national PDP abruptly cancelled the gubernatorial primary along with all other Ebonyi PDP primaries due to court ruling over state party leadership.[64][65] Before the national leadership set a new primary date, a party faction led by ousted state chairman Silas Onu held its own election, nominating businessman Ifeanyi Chukwuma Odii by a wide margin.[8] The national party and its recognized state chairman, Tochukwu Okorie, rejected the primary and held their own primary on 6 June; it was won by Senator Joseph Ogba.[9] However, the next day, a Federal High Court annulled the Okorie factional primary and declared the Odii-won primary as legitimate.[66] The court battle continued afterwards until 14 September when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Odii and declared him the legitimate nominee.[67][11] INEC briefly removed Odii as recognized nominee in December 2022 due to renewed litigation but he was returned to the list of candidates by late January.[68][69]
Joseph Ogba: Senator for Ebonyi Central (2015–present), former Commissioner for Youths and Sports (2002–2003), and former Ishielu Local Government Chairman[75][70][9]
Much of the general election campaign was dominated by internal party disputes that often led to extensive legal battles. The nominations of both Nwifuru and Odii were challenged by the winners of their parties' parallel primaries with the PDP case rising to the Supreme Court.[11] For the state PDP, the court cases were only a part of its wider internal crisis.[79] By 2023, attention mainly switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Ebonyi State voted for Peter Obi (LP); Obi won the state with 79.8% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu (APC) at 13.0% and Atiku Abubakar (PDP) at 4.2%. Although the result was unsurprising—Ebonyi is in Obi's southeastern stronghold and projections had favored him—the result led to increased attention on the chances of LP gubernatorial nominee Edward Nkwegu as opposed to Nwifuru, Odoh, or Odii. However, the LP nomination itself was embroiled in legal action which culminated in the removal of Nkwegu as nominee. In the wake of the presidential election and the court ruling sacking Nkwegu, analysts focused on various factors including regional strength by candidate, internal party relations, and zoning dynamics.[80][81]
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[84] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[85]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[86]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[87]
^Ajaja, Tunde; Ede, Raphael; Odogwu, Ted; Odey, Patrick; Tyopuusu, Justin; Oyelude, Olaide; Ochei, Matthew; Naku, Dennis; Wakaso, Aisha; Nwakanma, Sunday; Nnachi, Edward; Abraham, James (23 April 2022). "2023: Ganduje, Okowa, Ikpeazu, Ortom, Wike others in succession crisis". The Punch. Retrieved 23 April 2022. In Ebonyi State, the APC stakeholders of the Izzi clan, comprising Ebonyi, Abakaliki and Izzi local government areas, disagreed over who would succeed Dave Umahi in 2023. They expressed their opposition to the rumoured support of the governor for the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Francis Nwifuru.