Opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election


2025 Australian federal election
National results
State and territory results

In the lead-up to the 2025 Australian federal election, a number of polling companies are conducting opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, and contain an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.

Graphical summary

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Voting intention

2024

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
13–15 December 2024 Freshwater Strategy[1] Online 1,051 40% 30% 14% — — 16% — 49% 51%
11–15 December 2024 Essential[2] Online 1,151 35% 30% 13% 6% 1% 11% 5% 47% 48%
9–15 December 2024 Roy Morgan[3] Online 1,672 41% 27.5% 12.5% 5% — 14% — 48% 52%
4–8 December 2024 Resolve Strategic[4] Online 1,604 38% 27% 12% 7% — 16% — 49% 51%
2–8 December 2024 Roy Morgan[5] Online 1,653 38% 28% 13% 6.5% — 14.5% — 48% 52%
2–6 December 2024 Newspoll[6] Online 1,258 39% 33% 11% 7% — 10% — 50% 50%
27 November – 1 December 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,123 35% 32% 11% 8% 1% 9% 5% 47% 48%
25 November – 1 December 2024 Roy Morgan[8] Online 1,666 38.5% 30% 12.5% 6.5% — 12.5% — 49% 51%
18–24 November 2024 Roy Morgan[9] Online 1,663 37% 31.5% 12.5% 6.5% — 12.5% — 51% 49%
19–21 November 2024 DemosAU[10] Online 1,038 38% 32% 12% 7% — 11% — 50% 50%
15–21 November 2024 YouGov[11] Online 1,515 38% 30% 13% 9% — 10% — 50% 50%
29 October – 20 November 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[12] Online 4,909 39% 31% 11% — — 19% — 49% 51%
13–18 November 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,206 35% 30% 13% 7% 2% 8% 5% 48% 47%
15–17 November 2024 Freshwater Strategy[13] Online 1,046 40% 30% 14% — — 16% — 49% 51%
11–17 November 2024 Roy Morgan[14] Online 1,675 39% 29% 13.5% 6.5% — 12% — 49% 51%
6–13 November 2024 RedBridge Group[15] Online 2,011 39% 34% 11% — — 16% — 50% 50%
5–10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[16][17] Online 1,621 39% 30% 11% 5% — 15% — 49% 51%
4–10 November 2024 Roy Morgan[18] Online 1,665 37.5% 30.5% 12.5% 6.5% — 13% — 49.5% 50.5%
4–8 November 2024 Newspoll[19] Online 1,261 40% 33% 11% 5% — 11% — 49% 51%
30 October – 3 November 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,131 34% 31% 12% 9% 2% 8% 5% 47% 49%
28 October – 3 November 2024 Roy Morgan[20] Online 1,651 38% 30.5% 14% 6% — 11.5% — 49% 51%
21–27 October 2024 Roy Morgan[21] Online 1,687 37.5% 30% 14% 5.5% — 13% — 50.5% 49.5%
14–25 October 2024 Australian National University[22] Online 3,622 38.2% 31.8% 11.8% — — — 9.5% 50% 50%
18–20 October 2024 Freshwater Strategy[23] Online 1,034 41% 30% 13% — — 16% — 49% 51%
16–20 October 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,140 35% 28% 12% 7% 2% 9% 6% 46% 48%
14–20 October 2024 Roy Morgan[24] Online 1,687 36.5% 32% 13.5% 5.5% — 12.5% — 52% 48%
7–13 October 2024 Roy Morgan[25] Online 1,697 37.5% 30% 14% 6% — 12.5% — 50% 50%
7–11 October 2024 Newspoll[26] Online 1,258 38% 31% 12% 7% — 12% — 49% 51%
2–6 October 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,139 34% 32% 12% 8% 1% 9% 5% 49% 47%
30 September – 6 October 2024 Roy Morgan[27] Online 1,697 37.5% 31.5% 12.5% 5.5% — 13% — 50% 50%
1–5 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[28] Online 1,606 38% 30% 12% 5% — 15% — 50% 50%
23–29 September 2024 Roy Morgan[29] Online 1,668 38% 30% 13.5% 4.5% — 14% — 49% 51%
18–22 September 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,117 35% 29% 12% 8% 2% 9% 5% 47% 48%
16–22 September 2024 Roy Morgan[30] Online 1,662 37.5% 32% 12.5% 5% — 13% — 50.5% 49.5%
16–20 September 2024 Newspoll[31] Online 1,249 38% 31% 13% 6% — 12% — 50% 50%
13–19 September 2024 YouGov[32] Online 1,619 39% 30% 14% 7% — 10% — 50% 50%
13–15 September 2024 Freshwater Strategy[33] Online 1,057 42% 30% 13% — — 15% — 48% 52%
9–15 September 2024 Roy Morgan[34] Online 1,634 37.5% 30.5% 12.5% 5.5% — 14% — 50.5% 49.5%
2–8 September 2024 Roy Morgan[35] Online 1,703 36.5% 30% 14.5% 6% — 13% — 51% 49%
3–7 September 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,132 35% 30% 13% 8% 1% 8% 5% 48% 48%
3–7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[36] Online 1,614 37% 28% 13% 6% 1% 15% — 50% 50%
26 August – 1 September 2024 Roy Morgan[37] Online 1,697 36% 30.5% 13% 6% — 14.5% — 50.5% 49.5%
26–30 August 2024 Newspoll[38] Online 1,263 38% 32% 12% 7% — 11% — 50% 50%
6–29 August 2024 Wolf & Smith[39][40][41] Online 10,239 36% 29% 13% 6% — 15% — 51% 49%
23–28 August 2024 YouGov[42] Online 1,543 37% 32% 13% 8% — 10% — 50% 50%
20–27 August 2024 RedBridge Group[43] Online 2,017 38% 33% 12% — — 17% — 50.5% 49.5%
10 July – 27 August 2024 Accent Research/
RedBridge Group[44][45][46] 		Online 5,976 38% 32% 12% — — 18% — 50% 50%
19–25 August 2024 Roy Morgan[47] Online 1,701 39.5% 29.5% 13% 4% — 14% — 49.5% 50.5%
20–24 August 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,129 33% 29% 13% 7% 1% 11% 6% 48% 46%
16–18 August 2024 Freshwater Strategy[48] Online 1,061 41% 32% 12% — — 15% — 49% 51%
12–18 August 2024 Roy Morgan[49] Online 1,698 38.5% 30.5% 13.5% 4% — 13.5% — 50.5% 49.5%
8–11 August 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,132 34% 28% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 47% 47%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[50] Online 1,607 37% 29% 13% 6% 2% 13% — 50% 50%
5–11 August 2024 Roy Morgan[51] Online 1,671 38% 29.5% 14% 5% — 13.5% — 50% 50%
5–9 August 2024 Newspoll[52] Online 1,266 39% 32% 12% 6% — 11% — 50% 50%
29 July – 4 August 2024 Roy Morgan[53] Online 1,655 37% 30.5% 12% 5.5% — 15% — 51.5% 48.5%
24–28 July 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,137 34% 32% 11% 7% 2% 9% 6% 47% 46%
22–28 July 2024 Roy Morgan[54] Online 1,652 37.5% 30.5% 13% 6.5% — 12.5% — 50.5% 49.5%
19–21 July 2024 Freshwater Strategy[55] Online 1,060 40% 31% 13% — — 16% — 49% 51%
15–21 July 2024 Roy Morgan[56] Online 1,752 39.5% 31.5% 13% 5% — 11% — 49% 51%
15–19 July 2024 Newspoll[57] Online 1,258 38% 33% 13% 6% — 10% — 51% 49%
10–19 July 2024 RedBridge Group[58] Online 1,505 41% 32% 11% — — 16% — 48.5% 51.5%
12–17 July 2024 YouGov[59] Online 1,528 38% 31% 13% 7% — 11% — 51% 49%
10–14 July 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,122 33% 29% 13% 8% 3% 9% 6% 46% 48%
8–14 July 2024 Roy Morgan[60] Online 1,758 37.5% 31% 12.5% 5% — 14% — 49.5% 50.5%
10–13 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[61] Online 1,603 38% 28% 13% 6% 1% 13% — 50% 50%
1–7 July 2024 Roy Morgan[62] Online 1,723 39.5% 28.5% 13.5% 5% — 13.5% — 48% 52%
26–30 June 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,141 33% 30% 12% 7% 1% 10% 7% 46% 47%
24–30 June 2024 Roy Morgan[63] Online 1,708 36.5% 31.5% 13% 4.5% — 14.5% — 51% 49%
24–28 June 2024 Newspoll[64] Online 1,260 36% 32% 13% 7% — 12% — 51% 49%
17–23 June 2024 Roy Morgan[65] Online 1,696 37% 31.5% 13% 6% — 12.5% — 51% 49%
14–16 June 2024 Freshwater Strategy[66] Online 1,060 40% 32% 13% — — 15% — 50% 50%
12–16 June 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,181 32% 31% 13% 8% 1% 9% 6% 48% 46%
10–16 June 2024 Roy Morgan[67] Online 1,724 38% 29.5% 13.5% 5% — 14% — 50% 50%
11–15 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[68] Online 1,607 36% 28% 14% 6% 1% 15% — 51% 49%
3–9 June 2024 Roy Morgan[69] Online 1,687 35% 30.5% 15.5% 5.5% — 13.5% — 53.5% 46.5%
3–7 June 2024 Newspoll[70] Online 1,232 39% 33% 11% 7% — 10% — 50% 50%
31 May – 4 June 2024 YouGov[71] Online 1,500 38% 30% 14% 8% — 10% — 50% 50%
29 May – 2 June 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,160 36% 32% 13% 5% 3% 8% 4% 48% 48%
27 May – 2 June 2024 Roy Morgan[72] Online 1,579 36% 31% 14% 4.5% — 14.5% — 52% 48%
20–26 May 2024 Roy Morgan[73] Online 1,488 37% 28.5% 15% 6% — 13.5% — 48.5% 51.5%
17–19 May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[74] Online 1,056 40% 32% 14% — — 14% — 50% 50%
16–19 May 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,149 34% 31% 10% 8% 1% 8% 6% 46% 47%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[75] Online 1,602 36% 29% 12% 7% 2% 14% — 50% 50%
13–19 May 2024 Roy Morgan[76] Online 1,674 37% 30.5% 14.5% 5.5% — 12.5% — 50.5% 49.5%
16–18 May 2024 Newspoll[77] Online 1,280 37% 34% 13% 7% — 9% — 52% 48%
10–14 May 2024 YouGov[78] Online 1,506 38% 30% 13% 8% — 11% — 50% 50%
6–12 May 2024 Roy Morgan[79] Online 1,654 37% 32% 13.5% 5.5% — 12% — 52% 48%
1–5 May 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,150 34% 31% 13% 7% 1% 7% 7% 46% 47%
29 April – 5 May 2024 Roy Morgan[80] Online 1,666 37% 30% 13% 6% — 14% — 52% 48%
22–28 April 2024 Roy Morgan[81] Online 1,719 36.5% 31.5% 14% 5.5% — 12.5% — 52% 48%
19–23 April 2024 YouGov[82] Online 1,514 36% 33% 13% 8% — 10% — 52% 48%
17–21 April 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,145 35% 31% 11% 9% 1% 9% 4% 47% 49%
17–21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[83] Online 1,610 36% 30% 13% 5% 2% 14% — 50% 50%
15–21 April 2024 Roy Morgan[84] Online 1,617 35.5% 30.5% 16% 5.5% — 12.5% — 52% 48%
12–21 April 2024 RedBridge Group[85] Online 1,529 37% 33% 12% 7% — 11% — 52% 48%
15–18 April 2024 Newspoll[86] Online 1,236 38% 33% 12% 7% — 10% — 51% 49%
12–14 April 2024 Freshwater Strategy[87] Online 1,055 40% 31% 13% — — 16% — 50% 50%
8–14 April 2024 Roy Morgan[88] Online 1,706 38.5% 30% 13.5% 5.5% — 12.5% — 49% 51%
13 April 2024 The Liberals are re-elected in the 2024 Cook by-election
3–7 April 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,165 34% 29% 14% 6% 2% 8% 6% 48% 46%
1–7 April 2024 Roy Morgan[89] Online 1,731 38% 29.5% 13.5% 6% — 13% — 49.5% 50.5%
25–31 March 2024 Roy Morgan[90] Online 1,677 37.5% 30% 15.5% 3.5% — 13.5% — 51% 49%
22–27 March 2024 YouGov[91] Online 1,513 38% 32% 13% 7% — 10% — 51% 49%
21–24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[92] Online 1,610 35% 32% 13% 5% 2% 13% — 53% 47%
20–24 March 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,150 36% 29% 11% 7% 3% 7% 6% 44% 50%
18–24 March 2024 Roy Morgan[93] Online 1,633 38% 31.5% 14% 4.5% — 12% — 50% 50%
18–22 March 2024 Newspoll[94] Online 1,223 37% 32% 13% 7% — 11% — 51% 49%
11–17 March 2024 Roy Morgan[95] Online 1,710 37% 31.5% 12.5% 5.5% — 13.5% — 51.5% 48.5%
8–10 March 2024 Freshwater Strategy[96] Online 1,051 39% 31% 14% — — 16% — 51% 49%
4–10 March 2024 Roy Morgan[97] Online 1,714 38% 32% 13% 4% — 13% — 51.5% 48.5%
5–9 March 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,126 35% 32% 11% 8% 2% 8% 5% 48% 47%
24 February – 5 March 2024 YouGov[98] Online 1,539 37% 32% 15% 6% — 10% — 52% 48%
26 February – 3 March 2024 Roy Morgan[99] Online 1,679 36.5% 34% 13.5% 3.5% — 12.5% — 53.5% 46.5%
2 March 2024 Labor is re-elected in the 2024 Dunkley by-election
21–25 February 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,145 35% 30% 13% 7% 2% 8% 4% 47% 48%
19–25 February 2024 Roy Morgan[100] Online 1,682 38% 31.5% 12% 5% — 13.5% — 50% 50%
21–24 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[101] Online 1,603 37% 34% 11% 6% 1% 13% — 52% 48%
19–23 February 2024 Newspoll[102] Online 1,245 36% 33% 12% 6% — 13% — 52% 48%
16–18 February 2024 Freshwater Strategy[103] Online 1,049 38% 31% 14% — — 17% — 51% 49%
12–18 February 2024 Roy Morgan[104] Online 1,706 37% 34% 13% 4% — 12% — 52.5% 47.5%
7–11 February 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,148 34% 31% 14% 7% 1% 9% 5% 50% 46%
5–11 February 2024 Roy Morgan[105] Online 1,699 37% 34.5% 12% 4.5% — 12% — 52% 48%
2–7 February 2024 YouGov[106] Online 1,502 36% 32% 14% 8% — 10% — 52% 48%
30 January – 7 February 2024 RedBridge Group[107] Online 2,040 38% 33% 13% — — 16% — 51.2% 48.8%
29 January – 4 February 2024 Roy Morgan[108] Online 1,709 37% 33% 12% 5% — 13% — 53% 47%
31 January – 3 February 2024 Newspoll[109] Online 1,245 36% 34% 12% 7% — 11% — 52% 48%
24–28 January 2024 Essential[7] Online 1,201 34% 32% 13% 7% 2% 7% 5% 48% 46%
22–28 January 2024 Roy Morgan[110] Online 1,688 37.5% 31% 13% 5.5% — 13% — 50.5% 49.5%
15–21 January 2024 Roy Morgan[111] Online 1,675 36% 32.5% 12.5% 5% — 14% — 52.5% 47.5%
12–17 January 2024 YouGov[112] Online 1,532 37% 32% 13% 7% — 11% — 52% 48%
8–14 January 2024 Roy Morgan[113] Online 1,727 37% 31.5% 12% 4.5% — 15% — 51.5% 48.5%
10–11 January 2024 Freshwater Strategy[114][115][116] Online 1,007 39% 31% 13% — — 16% — 50% 50%
2–7 January 2024 Roy Morgan[117] Online 1,716 39% 29% 13% 5% — 14% — 49% 51%

2023

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
15–17 December 2023 Freshwater Strategy[118] Online 1,109 39% 31% 13% — — 16% — 50% 50%
11–17 December 2023 Roy Morgan[119] Online 1,109 38% 32% 11.5% 4.5% — 14% — 50% 50%
11–15 December 2023 Newspoll[120] Online 1,219 36% 33% 13% 7% — 11% — 52% 48%
6–11 December 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,102 34% 31% 13% 6% 2% 9% 5% 49% 46%
6–11 December 2023 RedBridge Group[121] Online 2,010 35% 33% 13% — — 19% — 52.8% 47.2%
1–5 December 2023 YouGov[122][123] Online 1,555 36% 29% 15% 7% — 13% — 51% 49%
29 November – 3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[124][125] Online 1,605 34% 35% 12% 5% 1% 12% — 55% 45%
27 November – 3 December 2023 Roy Morgan[126] — 1,730 37.5% 32.5% 12.5% 5% — 12.5% — 51% 49%
22–26 November 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,151 34% 31% 13% 7% 1% 8% 6% 48% 47%
20–26 November 2023 Roy Morgan[127] — 1,379 35% 32% 13.5% 5% — 14.5% — 52.5% 47.5%
20–24 November 2023 Newspoll[128] Online 1,216 38% 31% 13% 6% — 12% — 50% 50%
13–19 November 2023 Roy Morgan[129] — 1,401 37.5% 29.5% 13.5% 6.5% — 13% — 49.5% 50.5%
10–14 November 2023 YouGov[130] Online 1,582 36% 31% 13% 7% — 13% — 51% 49%
8–12 November 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,150 34% 32% 12% 7% 2% 8% 5% 49% 47%
6–12 November 2023 Roy Morgan[131] — 1,397 36.5% 30% 13% 6% — 14.5% — 50% 50%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[132] Online 1,602 30% 35% 13% 7% 2% 13% — 57% 43%
30 October – 3 November 2023 Newspoll[133] Online 1,220 37% 35% 12% 6% — 10% — 52% 48%
27 October – 2 November 2023 RedBridge Group[134] Online 1,205 35% 34% 14% — — 17% — 53.5% 46.5%
25–29 October 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,149 34% 32% 10% 7% 3% 9% 6% 48% 46%
23–29 October 2023 Roy Morgan[135] — 1,375 35% 32.5% 15% — — 17.5% — 53% 47%
16–22 October 2023 Roy Morgan[136] — 1,383 36% 32% 14% 4.5% — 13.5% — 49.5% 50.5%
14 October 2023 The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum is defeated
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll[137] Online 2,638 35% 36% 12% 6% — 11% — 54% 46%
6–10 October 2023 YouGov[138] Online 1,519 36% 33% 14% 6% — 11% — 53% 47%
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll[139][140] Online 1,225 36% 34% 12% 5% — 13% — 53% 47%
22 September – 4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[141][142] Online 4,728 31% 37% 12% 7% 2% 11% — 57% 43%
27 September – 1 October 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,125 32% 33% 14% 6% 2% 7% 5% 50% 45%
25–29 September 2023 YouGov[143][144] Online 1,563 35% 33% 13% — — 19% — 53% 47%
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy[145] Online 1,003 37% 33% 13% — — 17% — 51% 49%
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll[146][147] Online 1,239 36% 36% 11% 6% — 11% — 54% 46%
13–17 September 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,135 32% 31% 13% 8% 2% 8% 6% 49% 45%
4–10 September 2023 Roy Morgan[148] — 1,382 37% 32% 13.5% — — 17.5% — 52.5% 47.5%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[149][150] Online 1,604 34% 36% 12% 5% 2% 11% — 55.5% 44.5%
30 August – 4 September 2023 RedBridge Group[151] Online 1,001 36% 37% 13% — — 14% — 54.1% 45.9%
30 August – 3 September 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,151 32% 31% 15% 7% 2% 7% 6% 51% 43%
28 August – 3 September 2023 Roy Morgan[152] — 1,404 37.5% 33.5% 13% — — 16% — 53% 47%
28 August – 1 September 2023 Newspoll[153] Online 1,200 37% 35% 13% 7% — 8% — 53% 47%
16–20 August 2023 Essential[7][154] Online 1,151 33% 33% 14% 5% 3% 7% 6% 51% 43%
10–14 August 2023 RedBridge Group[155] Online 1,010 32% 38% 10% — — 21% — 55.6% 44.4%
9–13 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[156][157] Online 1,603 33% 37% 11% 5% 2% 12% — 56% 44%
2–6 August 2023 Essential[7][158] Online 1,150 30% 33% 12% 8% 2% 8% 6% 52% 42%
19–23 July 2023 Essential[7][159] Online 1,150 32% 31% 14% 7% 1% 9% 6% 50% 45%
15 July 2023 LNP is re-elected in the 2023 Fadden by-election
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[160][161] Online 1,610 30% 39% 11% 6% 1% 11% — 59% 41%
12–15 July 2023 Newspoll[162][163] Online 1,570 34% 36% 12% 7% — 11% — 55% 45%
5–9 July 2023 Essential[7][164] Online 2,248 32% 32% 14% 8% 1% 8% 5% 51% 44%
21–25 June 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,148 30% 32% 14% 7% 2% 11% 6% 52% 42%
16–24 June 2023 Newspoll[165][166] Online 2,303 35% 38% 11% 6% — 10% — 54% 46%
7–11 June 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,123 32% 32% 16% 5% 1% 9% 5% 52% 42%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[167][168] Online 1,606 30% 40% 12% 6% 2% 10% — 60% 40%
31 May – 3 June 2023 Newspoll[169][170] Online 1,549 34% 38% 12% 6% — 10% — 55% 45%
24–28 May 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,138 31% 34% 15% 6% 2% 7% 5% 52% 43%
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[171][172] Online 1,005 37% 34% 12% — — 17% — 52% 48%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[7][173] Online 1,080 31% 35% 14% 5% 1% 8% 5% 53% 42%
11–13 May 2023 Newspoll[174][175] Online 1,516 34% 38% 11% 7% — 10% — 55% 45%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[176][177] Online 1,610 30% 42% 12% 5% 2% 8% 2% 61% 39%
26–30 April 2023 Essential[7][178] Online 1,130 32% 33% 14% 5% 2% 8% 5% 53% 41%
19–22 April 2023 Newspoll[179][180] Online 1,514 33% 38% 11% 7% — 11% — 56% 44%
12–16 April 2023 Essential[7][181] Online 1,136 31% 34% 14% 6% 3% 9% 4% 52% 43%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[182][183] Online 1,609 28% 42% 12% 6% 1% 11% — 61.5% 38.5%
29 March – 2 April 2023 Essential[7][184] Online 1,133 30% 33% 14% 6% 2% 10% 5% 53% 42%
29 March – 1 April 2023 Newspoll[185] Online 1,500 33% 38% 10% 8% — 11% — 55% 45%
1 April 2023 Labor wins the 2023 Aston by-election
15–20 March 2023 Essential[7][186] Online 1,124 31% 34% 14% 5% 2% 9% 5% 52% 43%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[187][186] Online 1,600 30% 39% 13% 5% 1% 11% — 60% 40%
1–5 March 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,141 32% 32% 12% 7% 2% 10% 7% 49% 44%
27 February – 5 March 2023 Roy Morgan — — 33.5% 38% 11.5% — — 17% — 54.5% 45.5%
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll[188] Online 1,530 35% 37% 10% 7% — 11% — 54% 46%
20–26 February 2023 Roy Morgan — — 34.5% 37% 13.5% — — 15% — 56.5% 43.5%
15–19 February 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,044 30% 33% 14% 6% 3% 8% 8% 51% 42%
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[189][190] Online 1,604 31% 40% 10% 5% 1% 11% — 58% 42%
13–19 February 2023 Roy Morgan Online/Telephone — 33% 37% 13% — — 17% — 58.5% 41.5%
1–6 February 2023 Essential[7] Online 1,000 30% 33% 17% 6% 1% 15% 5% 55% 40%
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll[191][192] Online 1,512 34% 38% 11% 6% 1% 10% — 55% 45%
23–29 January 2023 Roy Morgan — — 33.5% 37.5% 11.5% — — 17.5% — 57% 43%
18–22 January 2023 Essential[7][193] Online 1,050 31% 34% 14% 8% 1% 7% 5% 53% 42%
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[194][193] Online 1,606 29% 42% 11% 6% 2% 11% — 60% 40%

2022

Date Brand Interview mode Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
23 December 2022 Andrew Gee leaves the Nationals to become an Independent
16–18 December 2022 Freshwater Strategy[195][196][197] Online 1,209 37% 37% 12% 4% 1% 9% — 54% 46%
7–11 December 2022 Essential[7] Online 1,042 30% 35% 13% 6% 3% 8% 5% 51% 44%
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[198][199] Online 1,611 30% 42% 11% 4% 2% 8% — 60% 40%
30 November – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[200] Online 1,508 35% 39% 11% 6% 1% 9% — 55% 45%
23–27 November 2022 Essential[200][201] Online 1,042 31% 33% 13% — — 17% 6% 51% 43%
27–30 October 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[202] Online 1,500 35% 38% 11% 6% 1% 9% — 55% 45%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[203][202] Online 1,611 32% 39% 13% 4% 1% 11% — 58% 42%
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[204][205] Online 1,604 30% 39% 12% 5% 3% 11% — 58.5% 41.5%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[206][207] Online 1,607 32% 39% 10% 6% 2% 11% — 56.5% 43.5%
31 August – 3 September 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[208][209] Online 1,505 31% 37% 13.5% 7% 2% 10% — 57% 43%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[210][211] Online 2,011 28% 42% 12% 5% 2% 11% — 61% 39%
27–30 July 2022 Newspoll-YouGov[212][213] Online 1,508 33% 37% 12% 6% 2% 10% — 56% 44%
14–17 June 2022 Dynata[214] Online 1,001 31% 34% 12% 4% 4% 7% 9% 52.2% 47.8%
13–19 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] Online/telephone 1,401 37% 36% 11% 4% 0.5% 11.5% — 53% 47%
29 May 2022 Peter Dutton elected unopposed as Leader of the Liberal Party[216]
21 May 2022 Election[217][218] 35.7% 32.6% 12.2% 5.0% 4.1% 10.4% — 52.1% 47.9%
  1. ^ a b c Resolve Strategic Poll 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election by the Poll Bludger and Kevin Bonham.

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling

Graphical summary

The following graphical summaries illustrate results from opinion polling for preferred Prime Minister and their respective approval ratings based on data below that is documented in the tables.

Preferred prime minister

Leadership approval ratings

Albanese

Dutton

Preferred prime minister and leadership polling table

2024
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
13–15 December 2024 Freshwater Strategy[1] Online 1,051 46% 43% 11% 3% 34% 51% 15% −17% 37% 40% 23% −3%
11–15 December 2024 Essential[2] Online 1,151 — — — — 39% 50% 11% −11% 44% 41% 15% +3%
4–8 December 2024 Resolve Strategic[4] Online 1,604 35% 35% 30% 0% 31% 57% 12% −26% 40% 42% 18% −2%
2–6 December 2024 Newspoll[6] Online 1,258 45% 38% 17% 7% 40% 54% 6% −14% 39% 51% 10% −12%
15–21 November 2024 YouGov[11] Online 1,515 42% 39% 19% 3% 36% 56% 8% −20% 40% 48% 12% −8%
13–18 November 2024 Essential[219] Online 1,206 — — — — 43% 48% 10% −5% 42% 41% 16% +1%
15–17 November 2024 Freshwater Strategy[13] Online 1,046 43% 42% 15% 1% 33% 50% 17% −17% 37% 41% 22% −4%
5–10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[16][17] Online 1,621 37% 37% 26% 0% 37% 51% 12% −14% 45% 40% 15% +5%
4-8 November 2024 Newspoll[19] Online 1,261 45% 41% 14% 4% 40% 55% 5% −15% 40% 51% 9% −11%
18–20 October 2024 Freshwater Strategy[23] Online 1,034 44% 43% 13% 1% 35% 49% 16% −14% 37% 39% 24% −2%
16–20 October 2024 Essential[220] Online 1,140 — — — — 44% 48% 8% −4% 45% 39% 16% +6%
4–16 October 2024 RedBridge Group[221] Online 2,315 — — — — 34% 53% 13% −19% 39% 42% 19% −3%
7–11 October 2024 Newspoll[26] Online 1,258 45% 37% 18% 8% 40% 54% 6% −14% 38% 52% 10% −14%
1–5 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[28] Online 1,606 38% 35% 27% 3% 35% 52% 13% −17% 41% 41% 18% 0%
18–22 September 2024 Essential[222] Online 1,117 — — — — 42% 47% 11% −5% 42% 42% 16% 0%
16–20 September 2024 Newspoll[31] Online 1,249 46% 37% 17% 9% 43% 51% 6% −8% 37% 52% 11% −15%
13–19 September 2024 YouGov[32] Online 1,619 42% 39% 19% 3% 36% 58% 6% −22% 40% 50% 10% −10%
13–15 September 2024 Freshwater Strategy[33] Online 1,057 45% 41% 14%[a] 4% 34% 49% 17% −15% 34% 38% 28% −4%
3–7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[36] Online 1,614 35% 34% 31% 1% 35% 53% 12% −18% 41% 42% 17% −1%
26–30 August 2024 Newspoll[38] Online 1,263 45% 37% 18% 8% 41% 54% 5% −13% 39% 52% 9% −13%
23–28 August 2024 YouGov[42] Online 1,543 43% 38% 19% 5% 41% 52% 7% −11% 42% 47% 11% −5%
20–24 August 2024 Essential[223] Online 1,129 — — — — 40% 50% 10% −10% 42% 41% 16% +1%
16–18 August 2024 Freshwater Strategy[48] Online 1,061 45% 41% 14%[b] 4% 35% 45% 20% −10% 37% 40% 23% −3%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[50] Online 1,607 35% 36% 29% 1% 34% 51% 15% −17% 41% 38% 21% +3%
5–9 August 2024 Newspoll[52] Online 1,266 46% 39% 15% 7% 43% 51% 6% −8% 40% 50% 10% −10%
24–28 July 2024 Essential[224] Online 1,137 — — — — 43% 46% 11% −3% 42% 41% 17% +1%
19–21 July 2024 Freshwater Strategy[225] Online 1,060 45% 39% 16%[c] 6% 34% 48% 18% −14% 36% 39% 25% −3%
15–19 July 2024 Newspoll[225] Online 1,258 46% 39% 15% 6% 44% 51% 5% −7% 41% 49% 10% −8%
12–17 July 2024 YouGov[59] Online 1,528 45% 37% 18% 8% 42% 52% 6% −10% 42% 46% 12% −4%
10–13 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[61] Online 1,603 34% 35% 31% 1% 32% 54% 14% −22% 39% 40% 21% −1%
26–30 June 2024 Essential[226] Online 1,141 — — — — 40% 49% 11% −9% 41% 42% 17% −1%
24–28 June 2024 Newspoll[64] Online 1,260 46% 38% 16% 8% 42% 53% 5% −11% 38% 54% 8% −16%
14–16 June 2024 Freshwater Strategy[66] Online 1,060 43% 41% 16%[d] 2% 34% 46% 20% −12% 35% 40% 25% −5%
11–15 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[68] Online 1,607 35% 36% 29% 1% 36% 50% 14% −14% 42% 40% 19% +2%
3–7 June 2024 Newspoll[70] Online 1,232 46% 38% 16% 8% 43% 50% 7% −7% 39% 49% 12% −10%
31 May – 4 June 2024 YouGov[71] Online 1,500 47% 36% 17% 9% 41% 53% 6% –12% 38% 51% 11% −13%
29 May – 2 June 2024 Essential[227] Online 1,160 — — — — 43% 47% 11% −4% 41% 42% 17% −1%
17–19 May 2024 Freshwater Strategy[74] Online 1,056 46% 37% 16%[e] 9% 37% 46% 18% −9% 31% 40% 29% −9%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[75] Online 1,602 40% 32% 28% 8% 39% 49% 12% −10% 39% 42% 19% −3%
16–18 May 2024 Newspoll[77] Online 1,280 52% 33% 15% 19% 47% 47% 6% 0% 38% 50% 12% −12%
10–14 May 2024 YouGov[78] Online 1,506 44% 37% 19% 7% 41% 53% 6% −12% 42% 48% 10% −6%
17–21 April 2024 Essential[228] Online 1,145 — — — — 43% 48% 9% −5% 44% 41% 15% +3%
17–21 April 2024 YouGov[f][229] Online 1,092 37% 45% 18% 8% — — — — — — — —
17–21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[83] Online 1,610 41% 32% 27% 9% 43% 45% 12% −2% 40% 42% 17% −2%
15–18 April 2024 Newspoll[86] Online 1,236 48% 35% 17% 13% 44% 50% 6% −6% 36% 51% 13% −15%
12–14 April 2024 Freshwater Strategy[87] Online 1,055 45% 39% 16%[g] 6% 38% 45% 17% −7% 32% 41% 27% −9%
22–27 March 2024 YouGov[91] Online 1,513 46% 34% 20% 12% 41% 52% 7% −11% 38% 49% 13% −11%
21–24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[92] Online 1,610 40% 30% 30% 10% 38% 49% 13% −11% 36% 44% 20% −8%
18–22 March 2024 Newspoll[94] Online 1,223 48% 34% 18% 14% 44% 51% 5% −7% 37% 52% 11% −15%
8–10 March 2024 Freshwater Strategy[96] Online 1,051 47% 38% 15%[h] 9% 37% 45% 18% −8% 30% 43% 27% −13%
24 February – 5 March 2024 YouGov[98] Online 1,539 48% 34% 18% 14% 44% 50% 6% −6% 39% 49% 12% −10%
21–25 February 2024 Essential[230] Online 1,145 — — — — 42% 47% 10% −5% 40% 44% 16% −4%
21–24 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[101] Online 1,603 39% 32% 29% 7% 41% 47% 12% −6% 35% 45% 20% −10%
19–23 February 2024 Newspoll[102] Online 1,245 47% 35% 18% 12% 43% 51% 6% −8% 37% 51% 12% −14%
16–18 February 2024 Freshwater Strategy[231] Online 1,049 42% 38% 19%[i] 4% 38% 45% 18% −7% 32% 41% 28% −9%
2–7 February 2024 YouGov[106] Online 1,502 45% 38% 17% 7% — — — −16% — — — −8%
31 January – 3 February 2024 Newspoll[109][232] Online 1,245 46% 35% 19% 11% 42% 51% 7% −9% 37% 50% 13% −13%
24–28 January 2024 Essential[233] Online 1,201 — — — — 41% 47% 12% −6% 38% 43% 19% −5%
12–17 January 2024 YouGov[112] Online 1,532 45% 35% 20% 10% — — — −13% — — — −11%
10–11 January 2024 Freshwater Strategy[114][115][116] Online 1,007 47% 38% 15%[j] 9% 38% 43% 19% −5% 31% 40% 30% −9%
2023
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
15–17 December 2023 Freshwater Strategy[118] Online 1,109 43% 39% 18%[k] 37% 42% 20% −5% 34% 36% 30% −2%
11–15 December 2023 Newspoll[120] Online 1,219 46% 35% 19% 42% 50% 8% −8% 39% 48% 13% −9%
1–5 December 2023 YouGov[122][123] Online 1,555 46% 36% 18% 39% 55% 6% −16% 39% 48% 13% −9%
29 November – 3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[124] Online 1,605 42% 28% 30% 37% 48% 15% −11% 34% 42% 24% −8%
22–26 November 2023 Essential[234] Online 1,151 — — — 42% 47% 12% −5% 39% 42% 19% −3%
20–24 November 2023 Newspoll[128] Online 1,216 46% 35% 19% 40% 53% 7% −13% 37% 50% 13% −13%
10–14 November 2023 YouGov[130][235] Online 1,582 48% 34% 18% 43% 50% 7% −7% 40% 47% 13% −7%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[132] Online 1,602 40% 27% 33% 39% 46% 15% −7% 36% 40% 25% −4%
30 October – 3 November 2023 Newspoll[133] Online 1,220 46% 36% 18% 42% 52% 6% −10% 37% 50% 13% −13%
11–14 October 2023 Essential[236] Online 1,125 — — — 46% 43% 11% +3% 36% 43% 21% −7%
4–12 October 2023 Newspoll[137] Online 2,638 51% 31% 18% 46% 46% 8% 0% 35% 53% 12% −18%
6–10 October 2023 YouGov[138][235] Online 1,519 50% 34% 16% 45% 48% 7% −3% 38% 50% 12% −12%
3–6 October 2023 Newspoll[139][140] Online 1,225 50% 33% 17% 45% 46% 9% −1% 37% 50% 13% −13%
22 September – 4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[141][142] Online 1,604 47% 25% 28% 43% 43% 14% 0% 30% 45% 25% −15%
25–29 September 2023 YouGov[143][235] Online 1,563 50% 33% 17% — — — — — — — —
22–24 September 2023 Freshwater Strategy[145] Online 1,003 46% 37% 17%[l] 38% 41% 21% −3% 30% 40% 30% −10%
18–22 September 2023 Newspoll[146][147] Online 1,239 50% 30% 20% 47% 44% 9% +3% 32% 52% 16% −20%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[149][150] Online 1,604 43% 28% 29% 40% 47% 13% −7% 35% 43% 22% −8%
30 August – 3 September 2023 Essential[237] Online 1,151 — — — 46% 43% 10% +3% 38% 43% 19% −5%
28 August – 1 September 2023 Newspoll[153] Online 1,200 50% 31% 19% 46% 47% 7% −1% 38% 49% 13% −11%
9–13 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[156][157] Online 1,603 46% 25% 29% 44% 42% 14% +2% 31% 44% 24% −13%
19–23 July 2023 Essential[159][238] Online 1,150 — — — 48% 41% 11% +7% 37% 43% 20% −6%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[160][161] Online 1,610 51% 21% 28% 51% 34% 15% +17% 31% 47% 23% −16%
12–15 July 2023 Newspoll[162] Online 1,570 54% 29% 17% 52% 41% 7% +11% 36% 49% 15% −13%
16–24 June 2023 Newspoll[165] Online 2,303 52% 32% 16% 52% 42% 6% +10% 38% 49% 13% −11%
29 May – 12 June 2023 CT Group[239] Online 3,000 — — — 42% 36% 22% +6% — — — —
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[167][168] Online 1,606 53% 22% 25% 53% 35% 13% +18% 28% 48% 24% −20%
31 May – 3 June 2023 Newspoll[169] Online 1,549 55% 28% 17% 55% 37% 8% +18% 36% 50% 14% −14%
15–17 May 2023 Freshwater Strategy[171][172] Online 1,005 51% 33% 16%[m] 42% 37% 21% +5% 30% 42% 28% −12%
10–14 May 2023 Essential[240] Online 1,125 — — — 54% 35% 11% +19% 36% 45% 19% −9%
11–13 May 2023 Newspoll[174][175] Online 1,516 56% 29% 15% 57% 38% 5% +19% 36% 51% 13% −15%
10–13 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[176][177] Online 1,610 53% 20% 27% 56% 29% 14% +27% 28% 49% 23% −21%
19–22 April 2023 Newspoll[179][180] Online 1,514 54% 28% 18% 53% 37% 10% +16% 33% 52% 15% −19%
12–16 April 2023 Essential[241] Online 1,136 — — — 51% 36% 12% +15% 36% 44% 20% −8%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[182][183] Online 1,609 55% 21% 24% 56% 29% 14% +27% 26% 54% 19% −28%
29 March – 2 April 2023 Essential[242] Online 1,133 — — — 52% 35% 13% +17% — — — —
29 March – 1 April 2023 Newspoll Online 1,500 58% 26% 16% 56% 35% 9% +21% 35% 48% 21% −13%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[187][186] Online 1,600 51% 22% 27% 55% 31% 13% +24% 32% 44% 25% −12%
1–4 March 2023 Newspoll Online 1,530 54% 28% 18% 55% 38% 7% +17% 37% 48% 15% −11%
15–21 February 2023 Morning Consult — — — — — 57% 31% 12% +26% — — — —
15–19 February 2023 Essential[243] Online 1,044 — — — 53% 34% 13% +19% — — — —
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[189][190] Online 1,604 55% 23% 22% 56% 30% 13% +26% 29% 45% 26% −16%
1–4 February 2023 Newspoll[191][192] Online 1,512 56% 26% 18% 57% 33% 10% +24% 36% 46% 18% −10%
18–22 January 2023 Essential[244] Online 1,050 — — — 55% 31% 13% +24% — — — —
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[194][193] Online 1,606 55% 20% 25% 60% 25% 15% +35% 28% 46% 26% −18%
2022
Date Firm Interview mode Sample Preferred prime minister Albanese Dutton
Albanese Dutton Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Net
16–18 December 2022 Freshwater Strategy[195][196][197] Online 1,209 55% 29% 16%[n] – – – – – – – –
7–11 December 2022 Essential[245] Online 1,042 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[198][199] Online 1,611 54% 19% 27% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 43% 29% –15%
30 November – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[200] Online 1,508 59% 24% 17% 62% 29% 9% +33% 36% 45% 19% –9%
16–22 November 2022 Morning Consult[246] Online — – – – 56% 31% 25% +25% – – – –
9–14 November 2022 Essential[247] Online 1,035 – – – 60% 27% 13% +33% – – – –
27–30 October 2022 Newspoll[202] Online 1,500 54% 27% 19% 59% 33% 8% +26% 39% 46% 15% –7%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[203][202][248] Online 1,611 53% 19% 28% 57% 28% 16% +29% 29% 41% 30% –12%
13–16 October 2022 Freshwater Strategic[o][249] Online 1,042 – – – 50% 26% 24% +24% 33% 34% 33% –1%
11–16 October 2022 Essential[250] Online 1,122 – – – 58% 26% 15% +32% – – – –
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[204][205] Online 1,604 53% 18% 29% 60% 25% 15% +35% 30% 41% 28% –11%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[206][207] Online 1,607 53% 19% 28% 60% 24% 16% +36% 28% 40% 32% –12%
31 August – 4 September 2022 Essential[251] Online 1,070 — — — 59% 25% 15% +34% — — — —
31 August – 3 September 2022 Newspoll[208] Online 1,505 61% 22% 17% 61% 29% 10% +32% 35% 43% 22% –8%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[210][211] Online 2,011 55% 17% 28% 61% 22% 17% +39% 30% 37% 32% –7%
3–7 August 2022 Essential[252] Online 1,075 — — — 55% 28% 18% +27% — — — —
27–30 July 2022 [Newspoll][212] Online 1,508 59% 25% 16% 61% 26% 13% +35% 37% 41% 22% –4%
7–11 July 2022 Essential[253] Online 1,097 — — — 56% 24% 20% +32% — — — —
8–12 June 2022 Essential[254] Online 1,087 — — — 59% 18% 23% +41% — — — —
23–31 May 2022 Morning Consult[255] Online 3,770 — — — 51% 24% 25% +27% — — — —
  1. ^ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  2. ^ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  3. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  4. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  5. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  6. ^ Polling conducted in Queensland.
  7. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  8. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  9. ^ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 16% "Neither"
  10. ^ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  11. ^ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 13% "Neither"
  12. ^ Total of 3% "Unsure" + 14% "Neither"
  13. ^ Total of 5% "Unsure" + 11% "Neither"
  14. ^ Total of 4% "Unsure" + 12% "Neither"
  15. ^ Polling conducted in NSW.

Sub-national polling

New South Wales

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
4–8 December 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 509 38% 27% 13% 9% — 11% 2% 49% 51%
5–10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 515 38% 30% 10% 6% — 13% 3% 50.5% 49.5%
1–5 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 510 39% 31% 10% 5% — 11% 4% 49.5% 50.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024 Newspoll[256] 1,592 38% 30% 12% 7% — — 13% 49% 51%
3–7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 513 37% 30% 12% 6% 1% 12% 3% 50.5% 49.5%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 510 39% 29% 12% 4% 2% 9% 4% 49% 51%
10–13 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 509 39% 27% 13% 6% 1% 12% 2% 48.5% 51.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024 Newspoll[256] 1,567 40% 33% 11% 6% — — 10% 49% 51%
11–16 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 510 37% 29% 12% 5% 2% 12% 3% 50% 50%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 511 35% 31% 10% 7% 1% 13% 2% 51% 49%
17–21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 511 35% 31% 11% 6% 1% 12% 4% 51.5% 48.5%
21–24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 511 35% 33% 11% 6% 2% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
31 January – 22 March 2024 Newspoll[256] 1,152 38% 32% 12% 7% — — 11% 50% 50%
21–24 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 509 37% 34% 10% 4% 1% 10% 4% 52% 48%
31 October – 15 December 2023 Newspoll[256] 1,139 37% 32% 13% 7% — — 11% 51% 49%
29 November – 3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 510 35% 35% 12% 5% 1% 10% 2% 54.5% 45.5%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 509 31% 37% 14% 6% 1% 8% 4% 58% 42%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 1,565 34% 38% 13% 5% — — 10% 56% 44%
22 September – 4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[141] 1,502 32% 34% 13% 8% 2% 10% 2% 55% 45%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[149] 509 36% 39% 8% 6% 2% 7% 3% 54% 46%
9–12 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[156] 509 34% 42% 11% 4% 1% 8% 1% 58% 42%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[160] 511 32% 39% 10% 9% 0% 8% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[167] 510 33% 39% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[176] 511 30% 46% 9% 5% 1% 7% 2% 61% 39%
21 April 2023 Mark Speakman is elected leader of the NSW Liberal Party
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 511 30% 43% 9% 6% 1% 8% 2% 59.5% 40.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023 Newspoll[256] 1,414 35% 38% 10% 7% — — 10% 55% 45%
25 March 2023 Labor wins a minority government at the state election
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 508 35% 39% 11% 5% 1% 7% 2% 55.5% 44.5%
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 509 31% 41% 10% 6% 1% 9% 2% 58.5% 41.5%
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 512 31% 40% 10% 8% 2% 7% 2% 57.5% 42.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[256] 512 33% 38% 12% 5% 3% 8% 2% 56.5% 43.5%
27 July – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[256] 1,817 35% 38% 11% 6% — — 10% 55% 45%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[203] 512 32% 41% 10% 6% 1% 8% 2% 57.9% 42.1%
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[204] 509 32% 39% 12% 6% 3% 7% 2% 57% 43%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[206] 510 29% 41% 9% 7% 3% 9% 3% 58.5% 41.5%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[210] 639 29% 42% 11% 5% 2% 8% 3% 60.5% 39.5%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] — — — — — — — — 46.5% 53.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.5% 33.4% 10% 4.8% 4% 7.6% 3.7% 51.4% 48.6%
  1. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales.

Victoria

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
L/NP ALP GRN UAP ONP IND OTH ALP L/NP
4–8 December 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 404 38% 26% 12% — 5% 12% 7% 50% 50%
5–10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 409 38% 31% 14% — 4% 10% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
1–5 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 405 37% 29% 14% — 5% 9% 5% 50.5% 49.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024 Newspoll[256] 1,263 38% 31% 13% — 6% — 12% 52% 48%
3–7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 407 36% 29% 13% 2% 4% 12% 4% 51.5% 48.5%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 405 33% 30% 13% 1% 6% 13% 3% 53.5% 46.5%
10–13 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 404 36% 30% 15% 2% 5% 11% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024 Newspoll[256] 393 36% 33% 15% — 6% — 10% 54% 46%
11–16 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 405 32% 29% 15% 1% 7% 11% 4% 54% 46%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 34% 29% 14% 2% 6% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
17–21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 34% 32% 11% 4% 5% 12% 2% 52.5% 47.5%
21–24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 35% 35% 13% 2% 5% 9% 2% 54.5% 45.5%
31 January – 22 March 2024 Newspoll[256] 926 34% 33% 16% — 5% — 12% 55% 45%
21–24 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 404 34% 32% 13% 2% 4% 8% 7% 54% 46%
31 October – 15 December 2023 Newspoll[256] 917 34% 34% 15% — 5% — 12% 55% 45%
29 November – 3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 405 34% 37% 11% 1% 4% 9% 4% 55.5% 44.5%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 404 25% 37% 14% 3% 8% 9% 4% 60.5% 39.5%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 887 35% 36% 13% — 4% — 12% 54% 46%
Daniel Andrews resigns as Premier of Victoria, replaced by Jacinta Allan
22 September – 4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[141] 1,192 30% 39% 11% 2% 6% 8% 2% 58% 42%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[149] 404 32% 40% 13% 2% 3% 8% 2% 58.5% 41.5%
9–12 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[156] 404 30% 38% 14% 1% 3% 10% 4% 59.5% 40.5%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[160] 406 26% 42% 13% 2% 5% 9% 3% 58% 42%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[167] 405 25% 40% 15% 3% 6% 7% 4% 62.5% 37.5%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[176] 406 25% 48% 12% 1% 4% 7% 2% 66% 34%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 32% 39% 11% 2% 3% 11% 3% 57.5% 42.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023 Newspoll[256] 1,193 33% 41% 11% — 4% — 11% 58% 42%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 403 29% 43% 9% 1% 6% 8% 4% 60% 40%
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 404 27% 40% 14% 2% 3% 11% 2% 62% 38%
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 31% 41% 13% 2% 3% 7% 4% 59.5% 40.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[256] 406 27% 46% 11% 2% 2% 7% 5% 63.5% 36.5%
26 November 2022 Labor wins a third term at the state election
27 July – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[256] 1,448 33% 37% 13% — 5% — 12% 57% 43%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[203] 406 32% 39% 12% 2% 2% 11% 3% 58% 42%
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[204] 404 30% 40% 10% 5% 4% 9% 3% 58% 42%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[206] 405 30% 38% 14% 2% 3% 8% 5% 59.5% 40.5%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[210] 507 24% 42% 11% 3% 5% 10% 5% 63% 37%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] — — — — — — — — 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 33.1% 32.9% 13.7% 4.7% 3.8% 6.5% 5.3% 54.8% 45.2%
  1. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Victoria.

Queensland

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary votes.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
LNP ALP GRN ONP UAP IND OTH LNP ALP
4–8 December 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 38% 25% 13% 9% — 8% 7% 54% 46%
5–10 November 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 330 43% 29% 8% 6% — 8% 6% 56% 44%
26 October 2024 State Election 41.5% 32.6% 9.9% 8.0% — 1.7% 6.3% 53.8% 46.2%
26 October 2024 LNP wins a majority government at the state election
4–16 October 2024 RedBridge Group[221] 2,315 41% 28% 13% 10% — — 8% 54.5% 45.5%
1–5 October 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 42% 25% 12% 6% — 13% 2% 55.5% 44.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024 Newspoll[256] 1,053 43% 30% 12% 8% — — 7% 54% 46%
3–7 September 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 328 40% 27% 13% 9% 2% 9% 1% 53.5% 46.5%
7–11 August 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 41% 24% 11% 10% 2% 8% 4% 56% 44%
10–13 July 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 44% 23% 10% 7% 0% 14% 1% 57.5% 42.5%
15 April – 26 June 2024 Newspoll[256] 328 40% 27% 13% 10% — — 10% 54% 46%
11–16 June 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 40% 24% 13% 8% 1% 11% 3% 54.5% 45.5%
15–19 May 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 43% 26% 12% 8% 3% 8% 1% 55.5% 44.5%
17–21 April 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 40% 25% 14% 9% 2% 8% 2% 54% 46%
21–24 March 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 36% 30% 14% 7% 1% 9% 2% 49% 51%
31 January – 22 March 2024 Newspoll[256] 772 41% 29% 12% 7% — — 11% 53% 47%
21–24 February 2024 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 44% 32% 9% 9% 2% 3% 1% 54.5% 45.5%
Annastacia Palaszczuk resigns as Premier of Queensland, replaced by Steven Miles
31 October – 15 December 2023 Newspoll[256] 764 41% 27% 12% 8% — — 12% 54% 46%
29 November – 3 December 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 38% 33% 12% 8% 2% 8% 0% 49.5% 50.5%
1–5 November 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 36% 31% 12% 11% 1% 6% 3% 50% 50%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 887 39% 30% 11% 9% — — 11% 52% 48%
22 September – 4 October 2023 Resolve Strategic[141] 961 34% 33% 11% 9% 1% 10% 1% 48% 52%
6–9 September 2023 Resolve Strategic[149] 326 35% 29% 16% 9% 2% 7% 2% 49% 51%
9–12 August 2023 Resolve Strategic[156] 326 40% 28% 9% 8% 2% 10% 3% 54% 46%
12–15 July 2023 Resolve Strategic[160] 327 36% 33% 12% 6% 2% 10% 1% 48% 52%
6–11 June 2023 Resolve Strategic[167] 327 31% 38% 10% 11% 2% 7% 1% 45% 55%
14–16 May 2023 Resolve Strategic[176] 327 39% 27% 17% 7% 3% 6% 2% 51.5% 48.5%
12–16 April 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 327 29% 37% 15% 8% 2% 7% 2% 42.5% 57.5%
1 February – 3 April 2023 Newspoll[256] 995 39% 33% 10% 8% — — 10% 50% 50%
12–16 March 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 325 24% 39% 14% 6% 1% 14% 2% 38.5% 61.5%
15–19 February 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 326 35% 39% 10% 9% 1% 0% 5% 46% 54%
17–22 January 2023 Resolve Strategic[256] 328 30% 38% 11% 9% 1% 8% 2% 43.5% 56.5%
30 November – 4 December 2022 Resolve Strategic[256] 328 34% 43% 7% 6% 1% 6% 2% 44% 56%
27 July – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[256] 1,207 40% 33% 12% 6% — — 9% 51% 49%
26–30 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[203] 328 32% 36% 16% 4% 2% 6% 4% 43% 57%
5–9 October 2022 Resolve Strategic[204] 326 38% 31% 14% 6% 2% 7% 2% 50% 50%
14–18 September 2022 Resolve Strategic[206] 327 31% 42% 7% 10% 2% 7% 2% 44% 56%
17–21 August 2022 Resolve Strategic[210] 409 31% 37% 16% 6% 2% 6% 3% 42.5% 57.5%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] — — — — — — — — 50% 50%
21 May 2022 Election 39.6% 27.4% 12.9% 7.5% 5.1% 2.1% 5.4% 54% 46%
  1. ^ Resolve Strategic 2PP calculated based on preference flows at the 2022 Australian federal election in Queensland.

Western Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
ALP L/NP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
30 October – 4 November 2024 DemosAU[257] 948 34% 38% 14% 6% — 8% — 52% 48%
1–10 October 2024 Redbridge[258] 1,514 35% 34% — — — — — 54.5% 45.5%
15 July – 20 September 2024 Newspoll[256] 36% 39% 11% 4% — 10% — 52% 48%
15 April – 26 June 2024 Newspoll[256] 156 34% 37% 11% 5% — 13% — 52% 48%
31 January – 22 March 2024 Newspoll[256] 368 34% 39% 8% 6% — 13% — 49% 51%
31 October – 15 December 2023 Newspoll[256] 364 37% 37% 11% 5% — 10% — 54% 46%
6–13 December 2023 RedBridge[259] 1,203 39% 37% 12% 5% — 7% — 55.2% 44.8%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 620 38% 38% 10% 6% — 8% — 53% 47%
Mark McGowan resigns as Premier of Western Australia, replaced by Roger Cook
1 February – 3 April 2023 Newspoll[256] 474 40% 33% 11% 6% — 14% — 57% 43%
Libby Mettam replaces David Honey as the WA Liberal leader
27 July – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[256] 575 39% 34% 9% 7% — 11% — 55% 45%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] 144 — — — — — — — 50.5% 49.5%
21 May 2022 Election 36.8% 34.8% 12.5% 4% 2.3% 9.6% — 55% 45%

South Australia

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for primary voting.
Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP UAP OTH UND ALP L/NP
15 July – 20 September 2024 Newspoll[256] 374 35% 36% 9% 10% — 10% — 54% 46%
15 April – 26 June 2024 Newspoll[256] 368 34% 34% 11% 12% — 9% — 53% 47%
31 January – 22 March 2024 Newspoll[256] 278 33% 35% 11% 10% — 11% — 54% 46%
31 October – 15 December 2023 Newspoll[256] 277 35% 38% 10% 6% — 11% — 55% 45%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 362 30% 40% 10% 11% — 9% — 57% 43%
1 February – 3 April 2023 Newspoll[256] 362 35% 38% 12% 5% — 10% — 56% 44%
27 July – 3 December 2022 Newspoll[256] 449 35% 40% 12% 6% — 7% — 57% 43%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] 103 — — — — — — — 60.5% 39.5%
21 May 2022 Election 35.54% 34.46% 12.77% 4.83% 3.89% 8.51% — 53.97% 46.03%

Tasmania

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of opinion polls for two-party preferred.
Polling
Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN JLN UAP IND OTH ALP L/NP
23 March 2024 State Election 36.7% 29% 13.9% 6.7% — 8% 5.7%
28 August – 12 October 2023 Newspoll[256] 366 25% 30% 13% — — 27% 57% 43%
21 June 2022 Roy Morgan[215] — — — — — — — — 63% 37%
21 May 2022 Election 32.9% 27.3% 12% - 11.2% 10.8% 54.3% 45.7%

Northern Territory

Graphical summary

Polling

Date Firm Sample
size 		Primary vote 2pp vote[a]
CLP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH ALP CLP
23 March 2024 Territory Election 48.9% 28.8% 8.1% — 14.2% — 42.6% 57.4%
16–18 November 2023 Redbridge Group[261] 601 40.4% 22.2% 11.1% 11.7% 7.2% 7.4% 43.9% 56.1%
21 May 2022 Election 29.4% 38.2% 13.1% 5.4% 1.3% 12.7% 55.5% 44.5%

Individual seat polling

Occasionally, opinion polling is conducted in individual electoral divisions.

Main article: Electorate opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Constituency Projections

Date Brand Sample Size Seat Tally Most Likely Outcome
L/NP ALP GRN OTH
29 October - 20 November 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[262] 4,909 71 65 4 10 Coalition Minority
10 July - 27August 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[263] 5,976 68 69 3 10 Labor Minority
February - May 2024 Accent Research/RedBridge Group[264] 4,040 60 77 3 11 Labor Majority
21 May 2022 2022 Federal Election 58 77 4 12 Labor Majority

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Some polling forms do not release two-party-preferred results. Results shown for polls conducted by these firms are manually calculated using preference flows in 2022.[260]

References

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  38. ^ a b Benson, Simon (1 September 2024). "Newspoll: PM gets a performance review. It's bad". The Australian.
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