Opinion polling for the next Estonian parliamentary election

In the run-up to the next Estonian parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Estonia. Results of such polls are displayed in this Wikipedia page.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election held on 5 March. Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

Poll trackers

Trackers of voting intentions and other election-related polling:

Graphical summary

Local regression chart of poll results

Polling results

There are 101 seats in the Riigikogu in total. Parties are denoted with an em dash if no indication is given of their level in polls.

2024

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample
size 		Ref EKRE Kesk E200 SDE Isamaa EÜVP Koos Parem EER ERK Others Lead Gov. Opp.
9 Dec–15 Dec Norstat 1,000 15.8 15.8 14.7 3.2 15.0 25.5 — 1.2 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.9 9.8 34 66
2 Dec–8 Dec Norstat 1,000 21.0 13.4 13.8 2.9 12.5 28.3 — 0.5 5.6 1.6 0.1 0.3 7.3 36.4 63.6
25 Nov–2 Dec Norstat 1,000 21.3 13.8 12.3 3.3 14.3 27.0 — 1.2 3.9 1.1 1.3 0.5 5.7 38.9 61.1
21–30 Nov Turu-uuringute AS 887 19 14 13 4 13 22 0 2 7 1 1 2 3 36 62
18–24 Nov Norstat 1,000 21.3 12.1 13.5 4.5 15.1 24.6 — 1.0 4.4 1.1 2.3 0.1 3.3 40.9 59.1
14–21 Nov Kantar Emor 1,516 17.4 13.7 14.8 4.3 13.9 24.1 — 2.3 6.4 1.4 1.6 — 6.7 35.6 64.3
11–17 Nov Norstat 1,000 18.0 12.3 13.4 3.8 15.2 27.5 — 0.6 5.3 1.2 2.2 0.5 9.5 37.0 63.0
4–10 Nov Norstat 1,000 17.6 13.5 17.2 4.8 12.6 26.9 — 1.3 2.9 2.1 0.3 0.8 9.3 35.0 65.0
28 Oct–3 Nov Norstat 1,000 17.1 12.6 11.7 3.6 12.8 32.7 — 1.0 5.5 1.6 1.0 0.5 15.6 33.5 66.5
24–30 Oct Turu-uuringute AS 894 18 10 14 6 16 25 0 2 6 1 1 1 7 40 60
21–28 Oct Norstat 1,000 16.4 12.3 14.3 3.7 12.8 30.9 — 1.1 5.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 14.5 32.9 67.1
14–21 Oct Norstat 1,000 20.1 12.0 13.0 3.8 15.7 27.5 — 0.9 4.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 7.4 39.6 60.4
10–16 Oct Kantar Emor 1,505 17.0 13.3 14.4 2.8 14.9 24.4 — 1.9 6.4 1.9 2.3 — 7.4 34.7 64.6
7–14 Oct Norstat 1,000 18.2 12.4 11.1 4.7 13.7 31.4 — 0.5 4.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 13.2 36.6 63.4
1–10 Oct Turu-uuringute AS 886 18 11 9 4 16 27 0 3 6 1 2 3 9 38 62
30 Sep–6 Oct Norstat 1,000 18.1 13.2 14.9 4.0 13.5 27.2 — 0.7 6.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 9.1 35.6 64.4
23–29 Sep Norstat 1,000 21.6 13.6 12.4 3.8 13.3 27.4 — 0.8 4.0 1.1 1.8 0.2 5.8 38.7 61.3
16–23 Sep Norstat 1,000 16.7 11.7 13.9 4.2 14.3 30.3 — 1.1 4.2 1.1 2.0 0.5 13.6 35.2 64.8
12–18 Sep Kantar Emor 1,553 18.1 9.5 13.9 3.9 16.0 24.5 — 3.2 5.3 1.3 3.6 — 6.4 38.0 61.3
9–14 Sep Norstat 1,000 18.1 12.1 13.8 5.0 12.5 28.3 — 1.9 3.9 1.8 1.9 0.7 10.2 35.6 64.4
29 Aug–12 Sep Turu-uuringute AS 885 18 12 13 6 16 23 0 1 6 1 3 2 5 40 60
2–8 Sep Norstat 1,000 20.2 14.6 12.7 4.1 11.1 29.0 — 0.7 5.1 0.8 1.7 0.1 8.8 35.4 64.6
26 Aug–1 Sep Norstat 1,000 19.9 11.0 11.0 4.3 16.4 28.3 — 1.3 3.9 1.3 2.2 0.1 8.4 40.6 59.4
19–25 Aug Norstat 1,000 19.9 11.5 11.4 2.9 18.3 27.3 — 1.1 4.5 0.8 1.9 0.1 7.4 41.1 58.9
15–21 Aug Kantar Emor 1,528 17.5 9.9 13.6 3.8 18.0 23.0 — 1.9 7.1 1.5 3.6 0.0[a] 5.5 39.3 60.7
12–19 Aug Norstat 1,000 17.4 16.0 12.7 2.9 16.2 27.4 — 0.8 2.7 1.2 2.7 3.5 10.0 36.5 63.5
5–11 Aug Norstat 1,000 20.1 11.6 12.1 3.3 17.9 27.1 — — 6.2 0.6 — 1.1 7.0 41.3 58.7
1–9 Aug Turu-uuringute AS 893 16 11 12 3 17 25 0 3 6 2 3 3 8 36 64
23 Jul–4 Aug Norstat 1,000 16.6 13.0 11.3 3.2 18.2 29.7 — — 5.3 0.9 — 1.8 11.5 38 62
22–29 Jul Norstat 1,000 15.2 15.0 13.0 2.7 17.8 29.4 — — 4.5 0.9 — 1.5 11.6 35.7 64.3
15–22 Jul Norstat 1,000 15.6 12.6 13.6 2.6 17.0 30.2 — — 4.5 1.6 — 2.3 13.2 35.2 64.8
11–17 Jul Kantar Emor 1,512 16.0 12.6 13.8 2.6 17.1 27.5 0.4 2.9 5.4 0.6 — 0.0[b] 10.4 35.7 64.3
8–12 Jul Norstat 1,000 19.4 11.2 12.5 3.8 16.4 30.3 — — 3.8 0.5 — 2.3 10.9 39.6 60.4
1–5 Jul Norstat 1,000 15.2 11.0 12.2 3.3 15.4 33.7 — — 5.8 1.9 — 1.5 18.3 33.9 66.1
17–24 Jun Norstat 1,000 16.4 13.0 13.6 3.7 16.1 30.0 — — 4.7 1.2 — 1.3 13.6 36.2 63.8
10–17 Jun Kantar Emor 1,557 16.0 12.8 14.1 2.6 17.5 27.1 0.4 — 8.4 1.2 — — 9.6 36.1 64.0
10–17 Jun Norstat 1,000 15.6 11.8 12.5 2.4 17.8 30.5 — — 6.1 1.3 — 2.0 12.7 35.8 64.2
1–11 Jun Turu-uuringute AS 889 20 15 11 4 17 23 0 2 5 1 — 2 3 41 59
3–10 Jun Norstat 1,000 17.8 16.3 10.0 2.9 14.1 29.6 — — 6.9 0.8 — 1.6 11.8 34.8 65.2
9 Jun EP election — 17.9 14.9 12.4 2.6 19.3 21.5 — 3.1 6.8 0.6 — 0.8 2.2 39.8 60.1
27 May–1 Jun Norstat 1,000 19.3 13.6 10.0 5.6 14.2 29.0 — — 5.9 0.7 — 1.7 9.7 39.1 60.9
20–27 May Norstat 1,000 19.4 17.6 13.3 5.3 16.2 23.5 — — 2.8 0.6 — 1.3 4.1 40.9 59.1
9–21 May Turu-uuringute AS 897 17 16 8 6 19 22 0 2 5 2 — 3 3 42 58
13–20 May Norstat 1,000 19.4 12.7 12.3 7.5 12.1 27.7 — — 4.9 2.1 — 1.3 8.3 39.0 61.0
6–15 May Kantar Emor 1,471 17.5 17.0 12.7 4.9 18.0 21.5 1.0 — 5.4 2.0 — — 3.5 40.4 59.6
6–13 May Norstat 1,000 18.0 15.7 12.3 6.1 14.1 29.1 — — 2.3 1.7 — 0.7 11.1 38.2 61.8
29 Apr–6 May Norstat 1,000 17.8 17.5 11.9 4.2 15.9 27.6 — — 2.8 1.8 — 0.4 9.8 37.9 62.0
22–29 Apr Norstat 1,000 19.7 19.8 8.3 4.6 14.4 26.5 — — 3.9 2.2 — 0.6 6.7 38.7 61.3
15–22 Apr Norstat 1,000 20.5 17.9 10.7 4.2 12.6 27.1 — — 4.2 2.2 — 0.6 6.6 37.3 62.7
9–17 Apr Kantar Emor N/A 18.8 18.3 13.8 4.8 14.2 22.1 1.2 — 4.6 2.2 — — 3.3 37.8 62.2
8–15 Apr Norstat 1,000 15.2 16.7 10.8 7.8 16.4 28.7 — — 2.3 1.1 — 1.0 12.0 39.4 60.6
4–11 Apr Turu-uuringute AS 871 19 15 10 5 13 27 0 1 4 2 — 3 8 37 62
1–8 Apr Norstat 1,000 18.6 20.2 8.9 4.9 14.3 26.9 — — 3.8 1.3 — 1.1 6.7 37.8 62.2
25–29 Mar Norstat 1,000 17.3 17.4 12.8 4.5 14.3 27.9 — — 3.5 1.0 — 1.3 10.5 36.1 63.9
18–25 Mar Norstat 1,000 18.0 19.2 11.2 4.5 15.2 28.5 — — 1.8 1.0 — 0.6 9.3 37.7 62.3
14–20 Mar Kantar Emor 1,567 15.0 16.1 13.9 3.6 17.6 26.7 0.6 — 4.5 1.9 — — 9.1 36.2 63.7
11–18 Mar Norstat 1,000 17.8 19.7 10.0 6.7 13.7 26.8 — — 2.0 2.1 — 1.2 7.1 38.1 61.9
7–18 Mar Turu-uuringute AS 909 17 19 10 6 15 25 0 1 3 1 — 1 6 38 60
4–8 Mar Norstat 1,000 16.2 16.3 10.5 6.6 15.2 30.9 — — 2.1 2.1 — 0.1 14.6 38.0 62.0
26 Feb–4 Mar Norstat 1,000 14.9 19.8 12.8 5.8 13.0 29.3 — — 2.0 1.4 — 1.0 9.5 33.7 66.3
19–23 Feb Norstat 1,000 19.7 20.1 10.2 5.1 11.6 29.2 — — 2.1 1.6 — 0.4 9.1 36.4 63.6
12–19 Feb Norstat 1,000 16.2 18.0 13.7 5.8 13.3 28.7 — — 2.5 1.3 — 0.5 10.7 35.3 64.7
8–19 Feb Turu-uuringute AS 889 18 17 8 7 16 24 0 2 3 2 — 2 6 41 60
7–14 Feb Kantar Emor 1,579 16.7 15.2 11.8 5.3 17.2 27.0 0.7 — 3.2 2.9 — — 9.8 39.2 60.8
5–9 Feb Norstat 1,000 20.0 16.4 8.1 3.0 17.1 31.3 — — 2.8 0.8 — 0.5 11.3 40.1 59.9
28 Jan–2 Feb Norstat 1,000 17.2 18.9 9.7 4.5 16.1 29.1 — — 1.7 1.7 — 1.1 10.2 37.8 62.2
22–26 Jan Norstat 1,000 13.5 21.5 12.5 6.5 17.1 25.3 — — 1.5 1.1 — 1.0 3.8 37.1 62.9
18–25 Jan Turu-uuringute AS 872 16 16 12 5 18 25 0 2 3 1 — 2 7 39 61
17–24 Jan Kantar Emor 1,498 18.7 17.4 14.0 3.9 17.2 22.1 0.6 — 3.7 2.4 — — 3.4 39.8 60.2
15–22 Jan Norstat 1,000 18.8 17.9 11.0 6.8 17.5 23.5 — — 2.3 1.5 — 0.7 4.7 43.1 56.9
8–12 Jan Norstat 1,000 17.5 15.3 12.3 5.3 16.1 27.3 — — 2.8 2.8 — 0.6 9.8 38.9 61.1
2-8 Jan Norstat 1,000 19.5 17.6 15.1 5.7 11.7 26.2 — — 2.2 1.6 — 0.4 6.7 36.9 63.1
5 March 2023 election N/A 31.2 16.1 15.3 13.3 9.3 8.2 2.4 2.3 1.0 — 3.3 15.1 53.8 46.2
37 17 16 14 9 8 0 0 0 — 0 19 60 41


2023

There are 101 seats in the Riigikogu in total. Parties are denoted with an em dash if no indication is given of their level in polls.

Fieldwork date Polling firm Sample
size 		Ref EKRE Kesk E200 SDE Isamaa EÜVP Koos Parem EER Others Lead Gov. Opp.
18–22 Dec Norstat 1,000 16.3 19.6 14.9 6.6 10.5 27.1 — — 2.8 1.4 0.8 7.5 33.4 66.6
11–18 Dec Norstat 1,000 16.4 20.4 14.2 5.8 10.7 26.7 — — 2.8 1.6 1.4 6.3 32.9 67.1
6–13 Dec Kantar Emor 1,497 15.2 19.8 15.2 6.1 11.8 24.9 0.4 — 4.1 2.7 — 5.1 33.1 67.1
4–8 Dec Norstat 1,000 16.8 22.5 16.2 5.5 10.4 25.4 — — 1.6 0.9 0.7 2.9 32.7 67.3
30 Nov–6 Dec Turu-uuringute AS 871 18 16 12 6 13 26 0 2 4 1 3 8 37 62
27 Nov–1 Dec Norstat 1,000 17.0 19.9 15.7 6.5 10.9 26.5 — — 1.5 1.4 0.6 6.6 34.4 65.6
20–24 Nov Norstat 1,000 18.2 20.8 14.0 6.9 10.6 25.8 — — 1.5 1.7 0.5 5.0 35.7 64.3
16–22 Nov Kantar Emor 1,494 16.1 20.6 13.4 6.3 12.9 24.8 0.4 — 3.3 2.1 — 4.2 35.3 64.6
13–17 Nov Norstat 1,000 16.3 19.3 14.4 5.5 9.4 30.6 — — 1.8 1.5 1.2 11.3 31.2 68.8
6–10 Nov Norstat 1,000 17.3 24.0 10.1 6.1 11.6 26.7 — — 2.3 1.1 0.8 2.7 35.0 65.0
30 Oct–6 Nov Norstat 1,000 16.7 24.1 14.3 5.0 9.2 25.6 — — 2.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 30.9 69.1
26 Oct–6 Nov Turu-uuringute AS 899 18.0 20.5 10.9 5.1 10.0 25.9 0.5 1.9 3.7 1.1 2.3 5.0 33.1 66.8
23–27 Oct Norstat 1,000 20.3 22.1 14.7 6.1 11.0 21.6 — — 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.5 37.4 62.6
16–20 Oct Norstat 1,000 18.3 24.6 13.1 6.6 10.1 22.6 — — 2.9 1.1 0.7 2.0 35.0 65.0
13–18 Oct Kantar Emor 1,486 19.7 17.4 14.3 7.2 14.8 18.5 1.2 — 4.1 2.8 — 1.2 41.7 58.3
10–13 Oct Norstat 1,000 20.4 22.3 15.9 6.2 9.6 20.1 — — 2.8 1.8 0.9 1.9 36.2 63.8
3–9 Oct Norstat 1,000 20.4 24.0 15.1 6.2 10.9 17.0 — — 3.4 1.8 1.2 3.6 37.5 62.5
28 Sep–6 Oct Turu-uuringute AS 879 23 19 14 8 10 16 1 2 4 2 1 4 41 59
26 Sep–2 Oct Norstat 1,000 23.2 21.8 14.4 6.8 10.2 18.0 — — 3.2 1.7 0.7 1.4 40.2 59.8
18–25 Sep Norstat 1,000 23.2 24.8 15.0 6.2 9.7 16.9 — — 2.4 1.0 0.8 1.6 39.1 60.9
14–20 Sep Kantar Emor 1,491 24.2 20.6 16.4 7.3 11.9 12.8 0.5 — 4.1 2.2 — 3.6 43.4 56.6
11–18 Sep Norstat 1,000 25.1 21.2 15.5 6.1 10.7 15.2 — — 2.7 2.3 1.1 3.9 41.9 58.0
4–11 Sep Norstat 1,000 25.8 24.1 16.6 6.6 10.1 13.1 — — 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.7 42.5 57.5
31 Aug–10 Sep Turu-uuringute AS 891 23 20 18 6 10 14 1 — 4 2 1 3 39 60
29 Aug–4 Sep Norstat 1,000 25.2 25.2 16.8 6.2 8.6 13.3 — — 1.4 2.8 0.5 Tie 40.0 60.0
21–28 Aug Norstat 1,000 27.2 22.5 16.6 7.6 10.5 11.2 — — 2.7 1.0 0.8 4.7 45.3 54.8
14–21 Aug Norstat 1,000 24.1 23.5 19.0 8.9 10.6 9.5 — — 2.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 43.6 56.3
10–16 Aug Kantar Emor 1,494 25.3 17.6 17.0 7.4 13.8 10.6 1.5 — 4.1 2.7 — 7.7 46.5 53.5
7–14 Aug Norstat 1,000 24.9 25.2 17.9 8.2 9.2 9.9 — — 2.5 1.3 1.0 0.3 44.0 56.0
3–13 Aug Turu-uuringute AS 877 23 24 16 8 13 9 1 — 3 1 2 1 44 56
31 Jul–7 Aug Norstat 1,000 23.8 23.8 18.1 8.5 11.1 10.0 — — 2.5 1.2 1.0 Tie 43.4 55.6
24–31 Jul Norstat 1,000 25.1 20.2 19.1 9.0 12.0 9.4 — — 1.5 2.7 1.1 4.9 46.1 53.9
18–23 Jul Norstat 1,000 29.5 21.2 17.5 8.0 9.5 9.8 — — 2.2 1.5 0.7 8.3 47.0 52.9
10–20 Jul Kantar Emor 1,486 26.3 20.2 16.2 9.8 11.5 8.5 1.4 — 3.5 2.6 — 6.1 47.6 52.4
11–17 Jul Norstat 1,000 28.3 22.6 18.4 6.9 8.9 10.1 — — 2.6 1.1 1.0 5.7 44.1 55.9
4–10 Jul Norstat 1,000 25.7 23.8 17.7 7.3 9.8 10.1 — — 2.1 1.4 2.1 1.9 42.8 57.2
26–30 Jun Norstat 1,000 29.3 24.2 16.1 5.9 9.2 10.0 — — 1.8 1.9 1.7 5.1 44.4 55.6
12–20 Jun Norstat 1,000 28.6 20.4 15.8 9.3 8.6 12.0 — — 2.3 2.1 1.0 8.2 46.5 53.6
8–14 Jun Kantar Emor 1,476 24.9 21.2 16.8 9.4 11.9 9.1 0.6 — 3.9 2.4 — 3.7 46.2 54.0
7–13 Jun Turu-uuringute AS 871 26 20 17 10 10 9 1 — 3 2 2 6 46 54
6–12 Jun Norstat 1,000 24.0 25.4 15.4 8.3 11.7 10.0 — — 3.1 0.9 1.1 1.4 44.0 56.0
29 May–6 Jun Norstat 1,000 27.7 21.8 15.1 9.7 9.2 10.3 — — 2.7 2.1 1.3 5.9 46.6 53.3
23–29 May Norstat 1,000 25.0 26.3 18.1 8.3 9.3 8.1 — — 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.3 42.6 57.4
15–22 May Norstat 1,000 25.1 24.5 17.0 10.6 9.7 8.1 — — 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.6 46.4 53.6
10–17 May Kantar Emor 1,501 22.7 22.5 17.6 12.6 10.4 8.0 1.2 — 2.7 2.4 — 0.2 45.7 54.4
8–15 May Norstat 1,000 23.3 27.0 20.1 8.8 7.9 7.8 — — 2.0 1.7 1.4 3.7 40.0 60.0
4–15 May Turu-uuringute AS 879 23 20 16 14 10 8 1 — 3 3 2 3 47 53
2–6 May Norstat 1,000 24.0 24.0 18.6 13.5 7.7 6.9 — — 2.1 1.1 2.0 Tie 45.2 54.7
25 Apr–1 May Norstat 1,000 24.6 22.0 15.7 15.1 9.2 6.5 — — 3.2 2.0 1.6 2.6 48.9 51.1
18–24 Apr Norstat 1,000 24.4 22.1 14.7 15.8 7.8 9.0 — — 3.2 1.7 1.4 2.3 48.0 52.0
10–19 Apr Kantar Emor 1,495 23.2 16.5 16.5 16.5 12.1 6.6 1.0 — 4.2 3.2 — 6.7 51.8 48.2
17 Apr Kaja Kallas' third cabinet is formed by Reform, E200 and SDE[1]
10–17 Apr Norstat 1,000 21.6 24.6 17.2 14.2 9.3 7.3 — — 2.1 2.0 1.6 3.0 45.1 54.9
3-11 Apr Turu-uuringute AS 1,174 24 19 13 17 10 8 1 — 4 1 1 5 51 49
3–10 Apr Norstat 1,000 23.8 18.2 19.3 16.1 10.1 8.3 — — 2.6 0.8 0.9 4.5 50.0 50.1
27 Mar–3 Apr Norstat 1,000 26.8 18.3 18.0 14.7 8.4 8.0 — — 2.2 1.2 2.3 8.5 49.9 50.1
20–27 Mar Norstat 1,000 24.8 18.6 17.3 16.0 10.2 7.7 — — 1.8 1.7 1.9 6.2 51.0 49.0
14–20 Mar Norstat 1,000 29.3 17.1 14.2 15.5 11.9 7.5 — — 1.9 1.0 1.7 12.2 56.7 43.3
9–17 Mar Kantar Emor 1,586 29.3 15.7 15.4 16.3 11.6 5.9 1.5 — 2.9 1.6 — 12.7 57.2 42.8
7–13 Mar Norstat 1,000 30.2 13.5 14.9 17.5 9.2 8.6 — — 3.0 1.3 1.7 13.0 56.9 43.1
5 March 2023 election N/A 31.2 16.1 15.3 13.3 9.3 8.2 2.4 2.3 1.0 3.3 15.1 53.8 46.2
37 17 16 14 9 8 0 0 0 0 19 60 41

Notes

  1. ^ Estonian Free Party – 0.0
  2. ^ Estonian Free Party – 0.0

References

  1. ^ ERR (2023-04-17). "Reformierakonna, Eesti 200 ja Sotsiaaldemokraatide valitsus astus ametisse". ERR (in Estonian). Retrieved 2023-04-17.