|
2025 Australian federal election
The 2025 Australian federal election will be held on or before 17 May 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. 150 (compared with 151 in the last two elections) seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton, minor parties such as the Greens, and independents. BackgroundPrevious electionAt the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The Liberal–National Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents.[1] In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation.[2] Composition of parliamentThe 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison.[3] On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats.[4] On 16 January 2023, Liberal Senator Jim Molan died, he was replaced by Maria Kovacic in May that year. On 6 February 2023, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe resigned from the party to sit as an Independent. On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election.[5] As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56. In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney.[6] On 15 June 2023, Liberal senator David Van was expelled from the party following sexual misconduct allegations by former LNP Senator Amanda Stoker and Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, continuing his term as an Independent. On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench.[7] November also saw Dave Sharma return to parliament this time as a Liberal Senator, after the resignation of party veteran Marise Payne.[8][9] On 4 December 2023, Labor MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, reducing Labor to 77 seats, though the party's share was restored to 78 seats on 2 March 2024, when candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley at the by-election. Similarly the Liberal Party fell by one seat on 28 February 2024, when former prime minister and MP Scott Morrison resigned from the seat of Cook, though Liberal candidate Simon Kennedy retained the seat for the party at the April 2024 by-election. Labor Senator Pat Dodson resigned from the Senate in January 2024 while undergoing cancer treatment; his vacancy was filled by Varun Ghosh. Senator Linda White of Labor died in March 2024 and was replaced by Lisa Darmanin, while Greens senator Janet Rice resigned the following month and was replaced by Steph Hodgins-May. Party-compositional changes occurred when Senator Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an independent on 28 March 2024, and Labor senator Fatima Payman left the party and joined the crossbench as an independent in July 2024, citing disagreement with the party's position concerning the Israel-Gaza conflict. Three months later Payman established Australia's Voice party, stating she intended the party to field candidates in both houses of parliament at this election. The Senate composition changed once again on 25 August 2024 when Liberal National Senator Gerard Rennick resigned from the party and moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent following a preselection defeat. Like Payman, he too announced his intention to establish a political party, named the People First Party, in order to have his name featured above the line on the election ballot paper.[10] Events of the 47th ParliamentAs of November 2024, both major parties have retained their leaders throughout the duration of the 47th Parliament, with Anthony Albanese expected to have served one full term as Prime Minister and a second consecutive term as leader of the Labor Party, while Peter Dutton is on track to complete his first full term as Opposition Leader and leader of the Liberal Party. The Albanese ministry was reshuffled once in July 2024, while the shadow ministry of Peter Dutton was reshuffled twice in April 2023 and March 2024. The 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum featured prominently in political discourse during the first half of the parliamentary term. First proposed in the 2017 Uluru Statement from the Heart, an Indigenous Voice to Parliament was supported by the Labor Party as part of its 2022 election platform. The 'Yes' campaign in support of the Voice initially attracted some bipartisan support, including Coalition figures such as the aforementioned Andrew Gee, former Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt, and then-Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians Julian Leeser.[11] However, the National Party came out against the Voice in November 2022, as did the Liberal Party in April 2023. Newly elected Country Liberal Party Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, who succeeded Leeser as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians, took on a prominent role in the 'No' campaign.[12] In August 2023, Albanese announced the referendum would be held on 14 October 2023. 60% of voters, including a majority in all six states, voted against the proposed constitutional changes. The death and state funeral of Elizabeth II, the long-serving head of state of Australia and other Commonwealth realms, took place in September 2022, followed by the coronation of Charles III and Camilla in May 2023. Charles visited Australia in October 2024, the first visit by a ruling monarch since 2011. Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, who had resigned from the Greens in February 2023 over disagreements regarding the proposed Voice to Parliament, attracted significant media attention for shouting at Charles during an event at Parliament House in Canberra.[13] Israel–Hamas war protests in Australia began in October 2023; responses to the war, particularly among local Jewish and Muslim communities, were perceived as a significant threat to peaceful discourse in Australia. Incidents of antisemitism and Islamophobia also increased, prompting the government to appoint three "special envoys": in July 2024, Jillian Segal as Special Envoy to Combat Antisemitism, and Labor MP Peter Khalil as Special Envoy for Social Cohesion; and in September 2024, Aftab Malik as Special Envoy to Combat Islamophobia.[14][15] Climate change also remained a prominent issue, partly due to the impact of natural disasters, including the 2022 south eastern Australia floods and the 2023–24 Australian bushfire season, which led to seven deaths and ten deaths respectively, as well as Cyclone Jasper, which caused significant property damage in Far North Queensland in December 2023. Changes to government infrastructure included: the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in July 2023; the launch of the Housing Australia Future Fund in November 2023;[16] the replacement of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal with the Administrative Review Tribunal in October 2024; and the passage of the Online Safety Amendment Bill in November 2024. Current standingsParties are listed according to their vote share at the last federal election
Electoral systemMembers of the House of Representatives are elected by full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member. Senators are elected by single transferable vote and proportional representation. In states senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts. Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.[17][18] RedistributionThe Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives. The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the 2025 federal election.[19] In May and June 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission released its draft proposals for electorate changes, recommending the creation of the Division of Bullwinkel (Western Australia) in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth, and the abolition of the Division of Higgins (Victoria) in Melbourne's inner south-east (held by Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah) and the Division of North Sydney (New South Wales) in Sydney's inner north-east (held by teal independent Kylea Tink).[20] In addition, the commission proposed altering the boundaries of several seats in all three states. The Western Australia and Victoria-based changes were confirmed by the commission on 5 September 2024,[21][22] with the new boundaries gazetted on 24 September[23] and 17 October[24] respectively. The New South Wales changes were confirmed on 12 September[25] and were gazetted on 10 October 2024.[26] According to Antony Green, some of the more significant changes to existing electorates included: the Division of Hasluck, losing much of its area to the new seat of Bullwinkel and shifting westwards into Perth's northeastern suburbs;[27] in Melbourne, the Divisions of Melbourne and Wills moving to the south, and the Divisions of Chisholm and Menzies moving westwards;[28] the Division of Riverina shifting south-east and losing the towns of Parkes and Forbes; and the Division of Hume losing the majority of its area in the south, including the town of Goulburn.[29] There was also a small adjustment to the Northern Territory's two federal electorates, with the Division of Solomon gaining some of the eastern suburbs of Palmerston from the Division of Lingiari.[30] Voter registrationEnrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[31] Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[32] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[33] Election date
The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[34] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, as of 21 January 2025[update], the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 1 March 2025.[35] The latest that a half-Senjate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election.[36] Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 17 May 2025.[37] A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[38] That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025.[35] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart. The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[39][40]
On 5 September 2024, during former leader of the Labor Party and current Minister for National Disability Insurance Scheme and Government Services Bill Shorten's announcement of his impending resignation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggested that he may schedule the election to be held at a date later than Shorten's departure from Parliament in February 2025, while noting that the election is due by May 2025. In November 2024, while announcing candidates for the election, Albanese told reporters that it would be held in April or earlier.[47][48] CampaignIn early January 2025, both Albanese and Dutton made public appearances interpreted by the media as "unofficial" campaign launches. Albanese visited electorates in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia.[49] Dutton gave a speech in Melbourne where he launched the Liberal party slogan for the campaign, "Let's get Australia back on track", and focused on the topics of nuclear power, housing, and immigration.[50] CandidatesRetiring membersThe seat of Maribyrnong (Victoria) will be vacant at the federal election following the resignation of Bill Shorten (Labor) on 20 January 2025 and no by-election will be held for the seat.[51] Labor
Liberal
Nationals
Independent
Opinion pollingPrimary vote Two-party preferred See alsoNotes
References
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
.jpg)
.png)
.jpg)
