en Electorate opinion polling for the 2025 Australian federal election

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2025 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

New South Wales

Cook

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP	GRN
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	57%	25%	6%	—	12%	64%	36%	—
13 April 2024	By-election			62.7%	—	16.4%	5.7%	15.2%	71.3%	—	28.7%
28 March 2024	uComms^[a]	914	± 3.6%	53%	—	17%	12%	10%	65%	—	35%
21 May 2022	Election			55.3%	25.0%	9.9%	—	9.8%	62.4%	37.6%	—

Gilmore

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	44%	29%	9%	—	—	18%	44%	56%
21 May 2022	Election			42.0%	36.0%	10.2%	4.0%	4.2%	3.6%	50.2%	49.8%

Mackellar

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2cp vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	OTH	UND	IND	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	43%	—	11%	7%	39%	—	53%	47%
5 February 2024	uComms^[a]	602	±3.85%	35.3%	30.4%	13.2%	5.8%	4.5%	10.8%	54.0%	46.0%
21 May 2022	Election			41.4%	38.1%	8.6%	6.1%	6.1%	—	52.5%	47.5%

Paterson

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	ALP	LIB	GRN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	32%	42%	9%	—	17%	46%	54%
21 May 2022	Election			40.7%	36.7%	7.6%	8.2%	6.9%	53.3%	46.7%

Wentworth

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2cp vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	OTH	UND	IND	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	40%	—	17%	9%	33%	—	55%	45%
5 February 2024	uComms^[a]	643	±3.85%	35.5%	32.1%	13.1%	10.0%	2.9%	6.3%	57.0%	43.0%
21 May 2022	Election			40.5%	35.8%	10.7%	8.3%	4.6%	—	54.2%	45.8%

Victoria

Aston

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	47%	30%	11%	—	11%	56%	44%
1 April 2023	By-election			39.1%	40.9%	10.1%	7.0%	2.9%	46.4%	53.6%
21 May 2022	Election			43.1%	32.6%	12.1%	—	12.3%	52.8%	47.2%

Dunkley

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	ALP	LIB	GRN	LP	OTH	ALP	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	38%	36%	9%	—	18%	53%	47%
2 March 2024	By-election			41.1%	39.2%	6.4%	2.5%	10.8%	52.7%	47.3%
15–22 February 2024	YouGov^[3]	394	± 6.1%	33%	40%	9%	3%	15%	49%	51%
5–6 February 2024	uComms^[a]	626	± 3.9%	40.1%	39.3%	8.2%	1.6%	10.8%	52.0%	48.0%
21 May 2022	Election			40.2%	32.5%	10.3%	2.5%	16.9%	56.3%	43.7%

Goldstein

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	OTH	IND	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	49%	—	17%	6%	29%	47%	53%
21 May 2022	Election			40.4%	34.5%	11.0%	7.8%	6.3%	52.9%	47.1%

Jagajaga

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	L/NP	ALP	GRN	IND	OTH	L/NP	ALP
29 Oct 2024 - 20 Nov 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group	—	±4.0%	37%	41%	12%	—	10%	44%	56%
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	±3.5%	35%	40%	16%	—	9%	41%	59%
Feb 2024 - May 2024	RedBridge Group	—	±3.3%	33%	39%	18%	—	10%	39%	61%
21 May 2022	2022 Federal Election			29.2%	40.9%	16.7%	3.1%	10.1%	37.6%	62.4%

Kooyong

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2cp vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	OTH	UND	IND	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	43%	—	12%	4%	41%	—	53%	47%
5 February 2024	uComms^[a]	647	±3.9%	36.8%	32.5%	12.1%	6.8%	2.0%	9.7%	56.0%	44.0%
24–25 July 2023	uComms^[a]	821	±3.4%	40.3%	31.6%	12.4%	5.6%	2.9%	7.2%	51.0%	49.0%
21 May 2022	Election			42.7%	40.3%	6.9%	6.3%	3.8%	—	52.9%	47.1%

Western Australia

Curtin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	IND	ALP	GRN	OTH	IND	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	46%	—	23%	8%	22%	47%	53%
21 May 2022	Election			41.3%	29.5%	14.0%	10.4%	4.9%	51.3%	48.7%

Tasmania

Lyons

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	LIB	ALP	GRN	JLN	ONP	OTH	ALP	LIB
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	41%	25%	9%	—	—	24%	46%	54%
21 May 2022	Election			37.2%	29.0%	11.4%	10.9%	5.4%	6.1%	50.9%	49.1%

Northern Territory

Lingiari

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	ALP	CLP	GRN	ONP	IND	OTH	ALP	CLP
10 July – 27 August 2024	Accent Research/RedBridge Group^[1]^[2]	—	—	30%	36%	12%	—	—	22%	47%	53%
21 May 2022	Election			36.6%	34.7%	11.0%	5.4%	3.0%	9.4%	51.0%	49.0%

Notes

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Sponsored by the Australia Institute

References

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 18 December 2024.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m "Labor facing minority with Liberals competitive in teal seats: poll". Australian Financial Review. 8 September 2024. Retrieved 18 December 2024.
^ "Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 51-49 in upcoming by-election | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Archived from the original on 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.

[uComms-3] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f Sponsored by the Australia Institute

[:0-1] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". The Poll Bludger. Retrieved 18 December 2024.

[:1-2] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m "Labor facing minority with Liberals competitive in teal seats: poll". Australian Financial Review. 8 September 2024. Retrieved 18 December 2024.

[4] "Dunkley seat poll shows Liberals lead 51-49 in upcoming by-election | YouGov". au.yougov.com. Archived from the original on 27 February 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2024.

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