As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.[2]
Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats.[3] Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview.[4] The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62–65 seats.[5]
On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."[7]
In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."[8]
On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."[10]
In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "…the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."[11]
In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.[12]
In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.[13]
Election ratings
Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Most election ratings use:
Tossup: no advantage
Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
Lean: clear advantage
Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
Safe: outcome is nearly certain
The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.
^Rothenberg Political Report (November 1, 2010). "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 24, 2010. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
^Larry J. Sabato; Isaac Wood (November 1, 2010). "Election Eve Special". centerforpolitics.org/. University of Virginia. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
^Nate Silver (November 7, 2010). "House Race Ratings". nytimes.com/. FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 7, 2010. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
