The Republican Party flipped the 1st and 4th districts, defeating incumbent Democrats Travis Childers and Gene Taylor, respectively. Two incumbents were re-elected; DemocratBennie Thompson of the 2nd district and RepublicanGregg Harper of the 3rd district.[6] In total, three Republicans and one Democrat were elected, marking the first time since 1996 that the Republican Party won a majority of Mississippi's congressional districts, and only the second time since Reconstruction.[7] A total of 788,549 votes were cast, of which 423,579 (54 percent) were for Republican candidates, 350,695 (44 percent) were for Democratic candidates, 6,560 (1 percent) were for an independent candidate, 4,292 (1 percent) were for Reform Party candidates, 2,188 (0.3 percent) were for Libertarian Party candidates and 1,235 (0.2 percent) were for a Constitution Party candidate.[8]
Overview
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi by district:[9]
Childers raised $1,817,037 and spent $1,796,376. Nunnelee raised $1,739,384 and spent $1,617,120. Green raised $40,296 and spent the same amount. Pang raised no money and spent $6,900. Giaramita raised $12,730 and spent $12,913.[24]
In a poll of 303 likely voters, conducted in June 2010 by the Tarrance Group for Nunnelee's campaign, 50 percent of respondents supported Nunnelee while 42 percent favored Childers and 8 percent were undecided.[25] In an Anzalone-Liszt poll of 400 likely voters, conducted in August and September 2010, Childers led with 46 percent to Nunnelee's 41 percent.[26] Republican internal polls of 300 likely voters by Tarrance, conducted in September and October 2010, found Nunnelee leading Childers by 48 percent to 41 percent and by 51 percent to 40 percent respectively.[27] A poll of 603 likely voters, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland in October 2010, found Nunnelee leading Childers by 44 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided.[28]
On election day Nunnelee was elected with 55 percent of the vote to Childers's 41 percent.[29] Nunnelee was re-elected in 2012[30] and 2014.[31] Childers unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014.[32]
Republican primary results
Mississippi's 1st congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[33]
Democrat Bennie Thompson, who took office in 1993, was the incumbent. Thompson was re-elected in 2008 with 69 percent of the vote.[34] In 2010 the Republican nominee was Bill Marcy, a former police officer.[36] George Bailey and Richard Cook, a teacher, also ran in the Republican primary.[37] Ashley Norwood ran as the Reform Party nominee.[36]
Thompson raised $1,808,681 and spent $1,343,456. Marcy raised $47,933 and spent $40,847.[38] In a poll of 442 registered voters and likely voters, conducted by JMC Enterprises in September 2010, 35 percent of respondents intended to vote for Thompson while 34 percent intended to vote for Marcy and 31 percent were undecided.[39] A JMC poll of 441 registered voters and likely voters conducted in October 2010 found Thompson leading with 42 percent to Marcy's 41 percent, while 17 percent were undecided.[40] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Thompson a 99 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 57 percent of the vote to Marcy's 40 percent.[41]
On election day Thompson was re-elected with 61 percent of the vote to Marcy's 38 percent.[42] Thompson was re-elected in 2012[43] and 2014.[31] Marcy ran again in the 2nd district in 2012 and sought the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2014.[44]
Republican primary results
Mississippi's 2nd congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[33]
Republican Gregg Harper, who was first elected in 2008, was the incumbent. In 2008 Harper received 63 percent of the vote.[46] In 2010 the Democratic nominee was Joel Gill, the mayor of Pickens.[48] James D. Jackson, a sociology professor; and Shawn O'Hara, a frequent candidate for office, also sought the Democratic nomination.[49] O'Hara's sister, Tracella Lou O'Hara Hill, also ran as the Reform Party nominee.[50]
Harper raised $715,014 and spent $688,959.[51] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Harper a 100 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 70 percent of the vote to Gill's 28 percent.[52] On election day Harper was re-elected with 68 percent of the vote to Gill's 31 percent.[53] Gill unsuccessfully ran for Mississippi Agriculture Commissioner in 2011, and died in a car accident in October 2012.[54] Harper was again re-elected in 2012[55] and 2014.[31]
Democratic primary results
Mississippi's 3rd congressional district Democratic primary, June 1, 2010[56]
Taylor raised $855,983 and spent $968,943. Palazzo raised $1,079,453 and spent $1,026,476.[63] Tegerdine raised $74,586 and spent $74,500.[64]
In a poll by the Tarrance Group, conducted for Palazzo's campaign in September 2010, 45 percent of respondents supported Taylor while 41 percent favored Palazzo.[65] In October 2010 Taylor said his own internal polling showed him leading Palazzo by eight percentage points.[66] Another poll by Tarrance for Palazzo's campaign, conducted later in October 2010 with a sample size of 300 likely voters, Palazzo led with 43 percent to Taylor's 41 percent, while 3 percent supported other candidates and 12 percent were undecided.[67]
In October 2010 The Cook Political Report rated the race as a "toss up"[3] and CQ Politics rated the race as a "tossup".[4] In November 2010 The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race as "Pure Toss-up".[5] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Palazzo a 59 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 50 percent of the vote to Taylor's 48 percent.[68]
On election day Palazzo was elected with 52 percent of the vote to Taylor's 47 percent.[69] Palazzo was re-elected in 2012[70] and 2014.[31] In 2014 Taylor unsuccessfully challenged Palazzo in the Republican primary in the 4th district.[71]
Republican primary results
Mississippi's 4th congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[33]
Lansford, Tom (2011). "Mississippi District 4 Race (Palazzo v. Taylor): A Conservative Democrat Loses to a More Conservative Republican". In Foreman, Sean D.; Dewhirst, Robert (eds.). The Roads to Congress 2010. Lanham, Maryland: Lexington Books. pp. 55–66.
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