2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma

November 2, 2010

Nominee Tom Coburn Jim Rogers Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 718,482 265,814 Percentage 70.64% 26.13%

County results Coburn:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election Tom Coburn Republican Elected U.S. Senator Tom Coburn Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn won re-election to a second term.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Tom Coburn, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Evelyn Rogers, librarian[1]
• Lewis Kelly Spring, teacher[2]

Results

Republican primary results[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Coburn (incumbent)	223,997	90.4%
	Republican	Evelyn Rogers	15,093	6.1%
	Republican	Lewis Kelly Spring	8,812	3.5%
Total votes			247,902	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Jim Rogers, retired college professor
• Mark Myles, businessman

Results

Democratic primary results[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jim Rogers	157,955	65.4%
	Democratic	Mark Myles	83,715	34.6%
Total votes			241,670	100.0%

General election

Candidates

• Tom Coburn (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Ronald Dwyer (I), activist
• Jim Rogers (D), teacher
• Stephen Wallace (I), businessman[4]

Campaign

Coburn, a very popular incumbent, promised to self-term limit himself to two terms. Despite his popularity, he did release television advertisements. In 2009, Coburn's approval rating in a PPP poll was 59%, including a 39% approval rating among Democrats.[5] His Democratic opponent is a perennial candidate[6] who did little campaigning.[7]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[8]	Solid R	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[9]	Safe R	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[10]	Safe R	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]	Safe R	October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[12]	Safe R	October 26, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Jim Rogers (D)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[13]	June 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	65%	26%	3%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[14]	July 28, 2010	500	± 4.5%	65%	31%	1%	4%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	August 26, 2010	500	± 4.5%	67%	24%	3%	5%
Rasmussen Reports[16]	September 23, 2010	500	± 4.5%	68%	26%	2%	4%
SoonerPoll[17]	October 3–7, 2010	755	± ?	62%	22%	2%	14%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Dan Boren (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	53%	36%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Brad Henry (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	52%	40%	—	8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Coburn (R)	Mark Myles (D)	Other	Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[13]	June 30, 2010	500	± 4.5%	62%	27%	4%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Cole (R)	Dan Boren (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	42%	40%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Cole (R)	Brad Henry (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	44%	43%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	J. C. Watts (R)	Dan Boren (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	46%	41%	—	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	J. C. Watts (R)	Brad Henry (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	May 13–17, 2009	715	± 3.7%	45%	44%	—	11%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Tom Coburn (R)	$1,935,820	$2,103,749	$671,135	$0
Jim Rogers (D)	$0	$0	$0	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Results

United States Senate election in Oklahoma, 2010[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tom Coburn (incumbent)	718,482	70.64%	+17.87%
	Democratic	Jim Rogers	265,814	26.13%	−15.11%
	Independent	Stephen Wallace	25,048	2.46%	N/A
	Independent	Ronald F. Dwyer	7,807	0.77%	N/A
Majority			452,668	44.50%
Total votes			1,017,151	100.00%
	Republican hold		Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Atoka (Largest city: Atoka)
• Bryan (Largest city: Durant)
• Caddo (Largest city: Anadarko)
• Coal (Largest city: Coalgate)
• Cotton (Largest city: Walters)
• Craig (Largest city: Vinita)
• Greer (Largest city: Mangum)
• Harmon (Largest city: Hollis)
• Jefferson (Largest city: Waurika)
• Johnston (Largest city: Tishomingo)
• Kiowa (Largest city: Hobart)
• Le Flore (Largest city: Poteau)
• Love (Largest city: Marietta)
• Marshall (Largest city: Madill)
• Mayes (Largest city: Pryor Creek)
• Murray (Largest city: Sulphur)
• Nowata (Largest city: Nowata)
• Okfuskee (Largest city: Okemah)
• Osage (Largest city: Hominy)
• Pittsburg (Largest city: McAlester)
• Pushmataha (Largest city: Antlers)
• Seminole (Largest city: Seminole)
• Sequoyah (Largest city: Sallisaw)
• Tillman (Largest city: Frederick)
• Cherokee (Largest city: Tahlequah)
• Choctaw (Largest city: Hugo)
• Haskell (Largest city: Stigler)
• Hughes (Largest city: Holdenville)
• Latimer (Largest city: Wilburton)
• McIntosh (Largest city: Checotah)
• Muskogee (Largest city: Muskogee)
• Okmulgee (Largest city: Okmulgee)
• Ottawa (Largest city: Miami)
• Delaware (Largest city: Grove)
• Adair (Largest city: Stilwell)

References

General

1. "Candidate - Evelyn Rogers". Our Campaigns. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
2. http://www.springforussenate.com/Spring.cfm^[permanent dead link‍]
3. "Oklahoma Primary Results". Politico. July 27, 2010. Retrieved July 27, 2010.
4. "Wallace". Wallace4senate.com. Archived from the original on September 3, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
5. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2009_Archives/PPP_Release_OK_519.pdf ^[dead link‍]
6. GOP may dominate elections statewide | Tulsa World
7. "Tom Coburn cruises to a second and final term in the U.S. Senate | News OK". Archived from the original on August 9, 2014. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
8. "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
9. "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
10. "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
11. "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
12. "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
13. Rasmussen Reports
14. Rasmussen Reports
15. Rasmussen Reports
16. Rasmussen Reports
17. SoonerPoll
18. Public Policy Polling
19. "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Oklahoma". fec.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2010.^[permanent dead link‍]
20. "SUMMARY RESULTS: General Election - November 2, 2010". Archived from the original on August 5, 2012. Retrieved November 26, 2010.

Specific

• Official candidate list Archived September 14, 2010, at the Wayback Machine, Government of Oklahoma

External links

"Election Results" (PDF). Oklahoma State Election Board. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 16, 2010. Retrieved November 16, 2010.

• Oklahoma State Election Board
• U.S. Congress candidates for Oklahoma at Project Vote Smart
• Oklahoma U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
• 2010 Oklahoma Polls graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Election 2010: Oklahoma Senate from Rasmussen Reports
• 2010 Oklahoma Senate Coburn vs. Rogers from Real Clear Politics
• 2010 Oklahoma Senate Race from CQ Politics
• Race profile from The New York Times
• News coverage from The Oklahoman

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Tom Coburn for U.S. Senate
• Mark Myles for U.S. Senate