2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
	County results ; Kitzhaber: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% Dudley: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
Governor before election; Ted Kulongoski; Democratic	Elected Governor ; John Kitzhaber; Democratic

The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.^[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
Bill Bradbury, former Oregon Secretary of State
Roger Obrist

Polling

Poll source	Date administered	John Kitzhaber	Bill Bradbury	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall	May 8–10, 2010	53%	23%	22%
Survey USA	May 7–9, 2010	59%	25%	12%

Results

Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	242,545	64.78
	Democratic	Bill Bradbury	110,298	29.46
	Democratic	Roger Obrist	16,057	4.29
	Democratic	Write-ins	5,504	1.47
Total votes			374,404	100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Chris Dudley, former professional basketball player
Allen Alley, businessman and deputy chief of staff to Governor Ted Kulongoski
Clark Colvin, business executive
William Ames Curtright
Bob Forthan
Darren Karr, small business owner
John Lim, former Oregon State Senator and unsuccessful nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998
Bill Sizemore, 1998 Republican nominee for Governor of Oregon
Rex O. Watkins, real estate agent

Polling

Poll source	Date administered	Chris Dudley	Allen Alley	John Lim	Bill Sizemore	Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall	May 8–10, 2010	33%	23%	8%	6%	24%
Survey USA	May 7–9, 2010	42%	24%	8%	8%	14%

Results

Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chris Dudley	122,855	39.11
	Republican	Allen Alley	99,753	31.76
	Republican	John Lim	47,339	15.07
	Republican	Bill Sizemore	23,522	7.49
	Republican	William Ames Curtright	12,497	3.98
	Republican	Rex O. Watkins	3,060	0.97
	Republican	Write-ins	2,001	0.64
	Republican	Clark Colvin	1,206	0.38
	Republican	Darren Karr	1,127	0.36
	Republican	Bob Forthan	727	0.23
Total votes			314,087	100.00

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.^[1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.^[4] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,^[5] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.^[6] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.^[4]

Candidates

John Kitzhaber, former Governor of Oregon
Jerry Wilson, businessman
Richard Esterman, photographer

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	850	38.39
	Independent Party	Richard Esterman	438	19.78
	Independent Party	Write-ins	314	14.18
	Independent Party	None of the above	312	14.09
	Progressive	Jerry Wilson	300	13.55
Total votes			2,214	100.00

General election

Candidates

Chris Dudley (Republican), former professional basketball player
John Kitzhaber (Democratic, Independent Party of Oregon), former Governor of Oregon
Greg Kord (Constitution), industrial piping designer
Wes Wagner (Libertarian), systems administrator

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.^[8] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.^[9]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)		John Kitzhaber^[10]
Willamette Week (Portland)		John Kitzhaber^[11]
Portland Tribune		John Kitzhaber^[12]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)		John Kitzhaber^[13]
Statesman Journal (Salem)		Chris Dudley^[14]
Mail Tribune (Medford)		John Kitzhaber^[15]
The Bulletin (Bend)		Chris Dudley^[16]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)		John Kitzhaber^[17]
The Lake Oswego Review		John Kitzhaber^[18]
The News-Review (Roseburg)		John Kitzhaber^[19]
The Outlook (Gresham)		John Kitzhaber^[20]
The Daily Astorian		John Kitzhaber^[21]
Corvallis Gazette-Times		John Kitzhaber^[22]
News-Register (McMinnville)		Chris Dudley^[23]
The Sandy Post		John Kitzhaber^[24]
Beaverton Valley Times		John Kitzhaber^[25]
West Linn Tidings		John Kitzhaber^[26]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[27]	Tossup	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[28]	Tossup	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[29]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[30]	Lean R (flip)	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[31]	Lean D	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Margin of error	John Kitzhaber (D)	Chris Dudley (R)	Other candidate(s)	Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts	October 30–31, 2010	± 3.1%	46%	43%
Survey USA	October 23–28, 2010	± 4.2%	48%	41%	2%	8%
Rasmussen Reports	October 25, 2010	± 4.0%	46%	49%	3%	3%
Hibbitts	October 24–25, 2010	± 4.4%	42%	45%	2%	12%
Elway Research	October 18–19, 2010	± 4.4%	45%	44%	3%	5%
Public Policy Polling	October 16–17, 2010	± 2.8%	48%	47%		5%
Survey USA	October 12–14, 2010	± 3.9%	46%	45%	4%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	October 10, 2010	± 4.0%	48%	46%	3%	4%
Survey USA	September 12–14, 2010	± 4.2%	43%	49%	5%	3%
Riley Research	August 31 – September 9, 2010	± 5.0%	40%	39%	5%	16%
Rasmussen Reports	September 8, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	49%	2%	5%
Rasmussen Reports	August 22, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	45%	3%	8%
Grove Insight	August 18–21, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	35%	4%	14%
Survey USA	July 25–27, 2010	± 4.2%	44%	46%	7%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	July 26, 2010	± 4.0%	44%	47%	5%	4%
Magellan Strategies	June 28, 2010	± 3.2%	40%	41%	10%	9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine	June 21, 2010	unk	41%	41%	6%	12%
Rasmussen Reports	June 17, 2010	± 4.5%	45%	47%	4%	4%
Survey USA	June 7–9, 2010	± 4.2%	40%	47%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports	May 20, 2010	± 4.5%	44%	45%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports	April 26, 2010	± 4.0%	41%	41%	4%	4%
Moore Insight	February 20–21, 2010	± 4.0%	45%	33%		21%
Rasmussen Reports	February 17, 2010	± 4.5%	42%	36%	7%	15%

Results

Statewide results

Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010^[32]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Kitzhaber	716,525	49.29%	−1.43%
	Republican	Chris Dudley	694,287	47.76%	+5.01%
	Constitution	Greg Kord	20,475	1.41%	−2.23%
	Libertarian	Wes Wagner	19,048	1.31%	+0.09%
	Write-ins		3,213	0.22%
Majority			22,238	1.53%	−6.45%
Turnout			1,453,548
	Democratic hold		Swing

County results

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.^[32]

County	Kitzhaber	Votes	Dudley	Votes	Kord	Votes	Wagner	Votes	Various	Votes	Total
Baker	26.8%	1,949	68.1%	4,816	2.6%	187	2.3%	166	0.3%	21	7,276
Benton	59.4%	21,498	38.0%	13,767	1.1%	399	1.2%	448	0.2%	77	36,189
Clackamas	44.3%	69,250	53.4%	83,516	1.1%	1,686	1.0%	1,547	0.2%	288	156,287
Clatsop	51.3%	7,654	45.5%	6,792	1.3%	196	1.6%	166	0.2%	37	14,913
Columbia	44.4%	8,973	51.0%	10,302	2.4%	493	1.8%	368	0.3%	54	20,190
Coos	41.3%	10,456	53.9%	13,652	2.4%	618	2.3%	583	0.1%	34	25,343
Crook	26.1%	2,314	70.3%	6,231	1.7%	152	1.6%	144	0.2%	21	8,862
Curry	38.8%	3,986	56.0%	5,761	2.7%	275	2.4%	245	0.1%	14	10,281
Deschutes	38.1%	24,289	59.1%	37,706	1.3%	861	1.3%	815	0.2%	112	63,783
Douglas	32.5%	14,072	63.3%	27,438	2.2%	952	1.9%	807	0.2%	66	43,335
Gilliam	32.0%	308	64.4%	620	2.6%	25	0.7%	7	0.2%	2	962
Grant	21.6%	749	74.3%	2,576	2.5%	86	1.4%	50	0.2%	8	3,469
Harney	23.8%	800	72.3%	2,436	2.3%	76	1.4%	48	0.2%	8	3,368
Hood River	56.7%	4,778	40.7%	3,434	1.1%	95	1.2%	103	0.2%	17	8,427
Jackson	41.7%	32,360	55.0%	42,715	1.8%	1,389	1.4%	1,117	0.1%	109	77,690
Jefferson	32.3%	2,132	64.2%	4,240	1.7%	110	1.7%	110	0.2%	10	6,602
Josephine	34.7%	11,558	60.2%	20,025	3.1%	1,018	1.9%	646	0.1%	43	33,290
Klamath	25.1%	5,820	70.4%	16,295	2.4%	560	1.8%	428	0.2%	55	23,158
Lake	21.0%	658	74.2%	2,323	2.6%	80	2.0%	64	0.3%	6	3,131
Lane	57.0%	81,731	40.0%	57,394	1.3%	1,855	1.4%	2,045	0.3%	488	143,513
Lincoln	53.0%	10,484	43.2%	8,540	1.8%	347	2.0%	389	0.2%	31	19,791
Linn	34.8%	14,466	61.1%	25,370	2.2%	898	1.7%	708	0.3%	110	41,552
Malheur	24.4%	1,884	70.4%	5,440	3.2%	246	2.0%	157	0.1%	5	7,732
Marion	44.4%	44,795	52.7%	53,177	1.5%	1,530	1.2%	1,192	0.2%	242	100,936
Morrow	26.8%	850	68.8%	2,184	2.7%	87	1.5%	48	0.2%	6	3,175
Multnomah	70.6%	198,157	27.4%	76,915	0.8%	2,149	1.0%	2,879	0.3%	750	280,850
Polk	43.4%	12,899	53.7%	15,966	1.5%	456	1.1%	336	0.2%	67	29,724
Sherman	26.3%	238	70.1%	634	1.7%	15	1.9%	17	0.1%	1	905
Tillamook	46.0%	5,072	50.8%	5,604	1.5%	163	1.6%	173	0.2%	19	11,031
Umatilla	32.1%	6,321	63.8%	12,574	2.2%	441	1.6%	320	0.2%	47	19,703
Union	31.6%	3,366	64.5%	6,869	2.1%	221	1.5%	165	0.3%	31	10,652
Wallowa	28.6%	1,088	67.9%	2,581	2.1%	79	1.1%	43	0.2%	9	3,800
Wasco	43.2%	4,024	53.1%	4,938	1.7%	161	1.7%	156	0.3%	27	9,306
Washington	49.6%	92,811	48.1%	89,926	1.1%	1,977	1.1%	1,983	0.2%	336	187,033
Wheeler	28.6%	216	66.3%	500	2.9%	22	2.0%	15	0.1%	1	754
Yamhill	39.7%	14,519	57.2%	20,893	1.6%	570	1.3%	492	0.2%	61	36,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
Columbia (largest city: St. Helens)
Marion (largest city: Salem)
Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
Wasco (largest city: The Dalles)

References

^ ^a ^b Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
^ "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
^ ^a ^b "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
^ ^a ^b "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
^ "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
^ "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
^ Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
^ Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010.
^ "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian. Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Save Our State!". Willamette Week. Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
^ "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
^ "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard. Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal. Salem. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune. Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin. Bend. October 15, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian. Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review. Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook. Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
^ "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register. McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
^ "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
^ "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
^ ^a ^b "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.

External links

Oregon Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Campaign contributions for 2010 Oregon Governor from Follow the Money
Oregon Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
Election 2010: Oregon Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Oregon Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 Oregon Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign websites (Archived)

John Kitzhaber for Governor (D)
Chris Dudley for Governor (R)

[fusion-voting-1] Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010.

[Oregonian-projection-2] "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.

[primary-results-3] "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.

[IPO_primary_FAQ-4] "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.

[5] "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.

[6] "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010.

[7] "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

[debate-8] Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010.

[9] Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010.

[oregonian-endorse-10] "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian. Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[ww-endorse-11] "Save Our State!". Willamette Week. Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.

[portland-tribune-endorse-12] "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.

[register-guard-endorse-13] "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard. Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[statesman-journal-endorse-14] "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal. Salem. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[mail-tribune-endorse-15] "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune. Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[bend-bulletin-endorse-16] "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin. Bend. October 15, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[east-ore-endorse-17] "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian. Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[lake-oswego-review-endorse-18] "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[news-review-endorse-19] "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review. Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[outlook-endorse-20] "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook. Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[daily-astorian-endorse-21] "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[gazette-times-endorse-22] "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.

[news-register-endorse-23] "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register. McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}

[24] "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.

[25] "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.

[26] "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.

[27] "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[28] "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[29] "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[30] "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[31] "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.

[Official-32] "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.

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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Independent Party primary

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Newspaper endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Results

Statewide results

County results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

External links

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