2024 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 5, 2024, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2024 U.S. Senate elections and 2024 presidential election, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The 95 seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. Of the remaining 340 seats, 166 are considered "safe" Democratic, and 173 "safe" Republican. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Graphical summary of national polls

Most election ratings use:

Tossup: no advantage
Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District	CPVI ^[1]	Incumbent	Last result^[2]	Cook Oct. 3, 2024^[3]	IE Sep. 26, 2024^[4]	Sabato Sep. 19, 2024^[5]	ED Aug. 26, 2024^[6]	CNalysis Sep. 14, 2024^[7]	DDHQ Sep. 25, 2024^[8]	RCP Oct. 2, 2024^[9]
Alabama 2	D+4	New seat	–	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Solid D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
Alaska at-large	R+8	Mary Peltola	55.0% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D
Arizona 1	R+2	David Schweikert	50.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup
Arizona 2	R+6	Eli Crane	53.8% R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Arizona 4	D+2	Greg Stanton	56.1% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D
Arizona 6	R+3	Juan Ciscomani	50.7% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Likely R	Tossup
California 3	R+4	Kevin Kiley	53.6% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
California 9	D+5	Josh Harder	54.8% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D
California 13	D+4	John Duarte	50.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
California 21	D+9	Jim Costa	54.2% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
California 22	D+5	David Valadao	51.5% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Lean R
California 27	D+4	Mike Garcia	53.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
California 40	R+2	Young Kim	56.8% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
California 41	R+3	Ken Calvert	52.3% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Tossup	Likely R	Tossup
California 45	D+2	Michelle Steel	52.4% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
California 47	D+3	Katie Porter (retiring)	51.7% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup
California 49	D+3	Mike Levin	52.6% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Colorado 3	R+7	Open seat^[a]	50.1% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R
Colorado 5	R+9	Doug Lamborn (retiring)	56.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Colorado 8	EVEN	Yadira Caraveo	48.4% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup
Connecticut 2	D+3	Joe Courtney	58.2% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
Connecticut 5	D+3	Jahana Hayes	50.5% D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
Florida 7	R+5	Cory Mills	58.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Florida 9	D+8	Darren Soto	53.6% D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D
Florida 13	R+6	Anna Paulina Luna	53.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R
Florida 15	R+4	Laurel Lee	58.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Florida 23	D+5	Jared Moskowitz	51.6% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida 27	EVEN	María Elvira Salazar	57.3% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Florida 28	R+2	Carlos A. Giménez	63.7% R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R
Georgia 2	D+3	Sanford Bishop	55.0% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Illinois 17	D+2	Eric Sorensen	51.9% D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Indiana 1	D+3	Frank J. Mrvan	52.8% D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
Iowa 1	R+3	Mariannette Miller-Meeks	53.4% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
Iowa 2	R+4	Ashley Hinson	54.1% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Iowa 3	R+3	Zach Nunn	50.2% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Likely R	Likely R
Kansas 2	R+11	Jake LaTurner (retiring)	57.6% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Kansas 3	R+1	Sharice Davids	54.9% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Louisiana 6	D+8	Garret Graves (retiring)	80.4% R	Solid D (flip)	Likely D (flip)	Safe D (flip)	Safe D (flip)	Solid D (flip)	Safe D (flip)	Likely D (flip)
Maine 2	R+6	Jared Golden	53.1% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup
Maryland 6	D+2	David Trone (retiring)	54.7% D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Michigan 3	D+1	Hillary Scholten	54.9% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Lean D
Michigan 4	R+5	Bill Huizenga	54.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Michigan 7	R+2	Elissa Slotkin (retiring)	51.7% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Michigan 8	R+1	Dan Kildee (retiring)	53.1% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Michigan 10	R+3	John James	48.8% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R
Minnesota 2	D+1	Angie Craig	50.9% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
Missouri 2	R+7	Ann Wagner	54.9% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Montana 1	R+6	Ryan Zinke	49.6% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R
Nebraska 2	EVEN	Don Bacon	51.3% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
Nevada 1	D+3	Dina Titus	51.6% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Nevada 3	D+1	Susie Lee	52.0% D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Nevada 4	D+3	Steven Horsford	52.4% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
New Hampshire 1	EVEN	Chris Pappas	54.0% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
New Hampshire 2	D+2	Annie Kuster (retiring)	55.8% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
New Jersey 2	R+5	Jeff Van Drew	58.9% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R
New Jersey 3	D+5	Andy Kim (retiring)	55.5% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
New Jersey 5	D+4	Josh Gottheimer	54.7% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D
New Jersey 7	R+1	Thomas Kean Jr.	51.3% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R
New Jersey 9	D+8	Vacant	54.9% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
New Mexico 1	D+5	Melanie Stansbury	55.7% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
New Mexico 2	D+1	Gabe Vasquez	50.3% D	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Tossup
New York 1	R+4^[b]	Nick LaLota	55.5% R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tossup
New York 2	R+4^[b]	Andrew Garbarino	60.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Tossup
New York 3	D+3^[b]	Tom Suozzi	53.9% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New York 4	D+5^[b]	Anthony D'Esposito	51.8% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
New York 17	D+3^[b]	Mike Lawler	50.3% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tossup
New York 18	D+2^[b]	Pat Ryan	50.6% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
New York 19	R+1^[b]	Marc Molinaro	50.8% R	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D (flip)	Lean R	Tossup
New York 22	D+3^[b]	Brandon Williams	50.5% R	Lean D (flip)	Tilt D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Tossup
North Carolina 1	R+1	Don Davis	52.4% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Tossup
North Carolina 6	R+11	New seat	–	Solid R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)
North Carolina 8	R+11	Dan Bishop (retiring)	69.9% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
North Carolina 10	R+10	Patrick McHenry (retiring)	72.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
North Carolina 11	R+8	Chuck Edwards	53.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
North Carolina 13	R+11	Wiley Nickel (retiring)	51.6% D	Solid R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)
North Carolina 14	R+11	Jeff Jackson (retiring)	57.7% D	Solid R (flip)	Likely R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)	Safe R (flip)	Solid R (flip)
Ohio 1	D+2	Greg Landsman	52.8% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Ohio 9	R+3	Marcy Kaptur	56.6% D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Ohio 13	R+1	Emilia Sykes	52.7% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Tossup
Oregon 4	D+4	Val Hoyle	50.5% D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Solid D	Likely D	Likely D
Oregon 5	D+2	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	50.9% R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Oregon 6	D+4	Andrea Salinas	50.0% D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
Pennsylvania 1	EVEN	Brian Fitzpatrick	54.9% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Very Likely R	Lean R	Likely R
Pennsylvania 7	R+2	Susan Wild	51.0% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D	Likely D	Tossup
Pennsylvania 8	R+4	Matt Cartwright	51.2% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup
Pennsylvania 10	R+5	Scott Perry	53.8% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Tossup
Pennsylvania 17	EVEN	Chris Deluzio	53.4% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Rhode Island 2	D+4	Seth Magaziner	50.5% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D
South Carolina 1	R+7	Nancy Mace	56.4% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Very Likely R	Safe R	Likely R
Tennessee 5	R+9	Andy Ogles	55.8% R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R
Tennessee 7	R+10	Mark Green	60.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Texas 15	R+1	Monica De La Cruz	53.3% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Texas 28	D+3	Henry Cuellar	56.7% D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Texas 34	D+9	Vicente Gonzalez	52.7% D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
Virginia 1	R+6	Rob Wittman	56.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R
Virginia 2	R+2	Jen Kiggans	51.6% R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tossup	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R
Virginia 5	R+7	Bob Good (lost renomination)	57.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Virginia 7	D+1	Abigail Spanberger (retiring)	52.2% D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Likely D	Tossup
Virginia 10	D+6	Jennifer Wexton (retiring)	53.3% D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D	Tossup
Washington 3	R+5	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	50.1% D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R (flip)	Tossup
Washington 5	R+8	Cathy McMorris Rodgers (retiring)	59.7% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R	Solid R
Washington 8	D+1	Kim Schrier	53.3% D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Very Likely D	Likely D	Tossup
Wisconsin 1	R+3	Bryan Steil	54.1% R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R
Wisconsin 3	R+4	Derrick Van Orden	51.8% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
Wisconsin 8	R+10	Vacant	73.5% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R
Overall				D – 203 R – 208 24 tossups	D – 206 R – 216 13 tossups	D – 205 R – 211 19 tossups	D – 207 R – 210 18 tossups	D – 216 R – 208 11 tossups	D – 211 R – 215 9 tossups	D - 196 R - 207 32 tossups

^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
^ "House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority". CNN. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
^ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
^ "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. September 26, 2024.
^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 19, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved August 29, 2024.
^ "'24 House Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 19, 2023.
^ "2024 House Forecast | The Hill and DDHQ". The Hill. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
^ https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/house/2024/toss-up

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2024 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation	Date updated	Dates polled	Democratic	Republican	Others/ Undecided ^[c]	Lead
RealClearPolitics^[1]	October 3, 2024	September 11 – October 1, 2024	47.1%	45.3%	7.6%	D +1.8%
FiveThirtyEight^[2]	October 3, 2024	through October 1, 2024	47.0%	45.0%	8.0%	D +2.0%
Decision Desk HQ^[3]	October 2, 2024	through October 1, 2024	47.0%	45.6%	7.4%	D +1.4%
Average			47.0%	45.3%	7.7%	D +1.7%

Party listings

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 3, 2023, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.^[4]

Democratic-held seats

On March 13, 2023, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.^[5] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

Alaska At-Large: Mary Peltola
California 9: Josh Harder
California 47: Open Seat
California 49: Mike Levin
Colorado 8: Yadira Caraveo
Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
Florida 9: Darren Soto
Illinois 17: Eric Sorensen
Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
Maine 2: Jared Golden
Michigan 3: Hillary Scholten
Michigan 7: Open Seat
Michigan 8: Open Seat
Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
North Carolina 1: Don Davis
North Carolina 13: Open Seat
North Carolina 14: Open Seat
New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
Nevada 1: Dina Titus
Nevada 3: Susie Lee
Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
Ohio 1: Greg Landsman
Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
Oregon 4: Val Hoyle
Oregon 6: Andrea Salinas
Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
Pennsylvania 17: Chris Deluzio
Rhode Island 2: Seth Magaziner
Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
Virginia 7: Open Seat
Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Washington 8: Kim Schrier

References

^ RealClearPolitics
^ FiveThirtyEight
^ DDHQ/The Hill
^ RRobinson@DCCC.ORG (April 3, 2023). "DCCC Announces 2023-2024 Districts In Play". Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Retrieved July 15, 2023.
^ "NRCC Announces 37 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities to Grow GOP House Majority". NRCC. March 13, 2023. Retrieved July 15, 2023.

Notes

^ Incumbent Republican Lauren Boebert is running in Colorado's 4th congressional district.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h A new congressional map was enacted in February 2024, after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.^{[citation needed]}
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other parties combined.