2024 Missouri gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2024 United States gubernatorial elections.

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Mike Kehoe Crystal Quade
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,750,802 1,146,173
Percentage 59.14% 38.72%
County results
Kehoe:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Quade:      50–60%      70–80%
Governor before election

Mike Parson
Republican

Elected Governor

Mike Kehoe
Republican

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The 2024 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a second full term in office due to having served more than two years of predecessor Eric Greitens' unexpired term following his resignation in June 2018. The Republican nominee, incumbent lieutenant governor Mike Kehoe, defeated the Democratic nominee, minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives Crystal Quade, to succeed Parson.

Primary elections took place on August 6, 2024.[1] Mike Kehoe, the incumbent lieutenant governor, won the Republican nomination, while Crystal Quade, the Minority Leader of the Missouri House of Representatives, won the Democratic nomination.[2] Kehoe defeated Quade in the general election with 59.1 percent of the vote.[3]

A former bellwether state, Missouri has politically trended rightward in recent years and is today a Republican stronghold at both the federal and state levels. The last Democrat to hold the office of governor in Missouri was Jay Nixon, who comfortably won re-election in 2012. In 2020, Parson won by 16.41%, the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate won by a double-digit margin since John Ashcroft's landslide re-election in 1988. Major news organizations predicted that the state would elect another Republican governor in 2024.[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Jay Ashcroft

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Eigel and Kehoe)[10]

Statewide officials

Organizations

Bill Eigel

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Kehoe)[10]

U.S. representatives

Mike Kehoe

Executive Branch officials

  • Donald Trump, former president of the United States (co-endorsement with Ashcroft and Eigel)[10]

Statewide officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Ashcroft 		Bill
Eigel 		Mike
Kehoe 		Other Undecided
Battleground Connect[24][A] July 30–31, 2024 896 (LV) ± 3.1% 26% 17% 26% 16%[b] 15%
Remington Research Group[25][A] July 22–24, 2024 500 (LV) – 29% 18% 29% – 24%
29% 13% 18% – 40%
ARW Strategies (R)[26] June 27–30, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 19% 24% – 38%
Remington Research (R)[27][A] June 19–20, 2024 701 (LV) ± 3.6% 31% 9% 29% – 31%
Emerson College[28] June 17–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 23% 6% 20% 5%[c] 46%
American Viewpoint[29][B] June 2–4, 2024 800 (LV) - 27% 16% 27% - 30%
Peak Insights[30] May 15–18, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 22% 14% 20% - 42%
American Viewpoint[29][B] May 13–15, 2024 600 (LV) - 33% 12% 23% - 32%
Tyson Group[31][C] April 23–26, 2024 504 (LV) ± 4.3% 36% 3% 11% 9%[d] 40%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[32] February 14–26, 2024 414 (LV) ± 5.54% 28% 8% 10% 4%[e] 49%
Remington Research (R)[33][A] February 14–15, 2024 706 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 5% 22% – 38%
ARW Strategies (R)[34] February 5–7, 2024 611 (V) ± 3.96% 36% 13% 13% – 38%
Remington Research (R)[35][A] January 18–19, 2024 806 (LV) ± 3.3% 34% 4% 20% – 42%
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 18% 6% 19% – 49%
Remington Research (R)[37][A] September 27–28, 2023 714 (LV) ± 3.4% 32% 5% 15% – 48%
Remington Research (R)[38][A] July 5–7, 2023 706 (LV) ± 3.4% 34% 4% 14% – 38%
Remington Research (R)[39][A] November 15–16, 2022 940 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 4% 10% – 42%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40][D] March 8–10, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 54% – 19% 8% 19%

Debates

Dates Location Ashcroft Eigel Kehoe Link
July 25, 2024 St. Louis Participant Participant Absent YouTube

Results

Results by county:
Kehoe
  •   >60%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Eigel
  •   >50%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ashcroft
  •   30–40%

Kehoe secured a modest victory, carrying 88 counties, as well as the city of St. Louis. He performed the best in Shelby County, while Eigel, the runner-up, earned his best result in Grundy County. Finally, Ashcroft narrowly surpassed Kehoe in Greene County.[41]

Republican primary results[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Kehoe 274,840 39.4
Republican Bill Eigel 227,012 32.6
Republican Jay Ashcroft 162,086 23.2
Republican Amber Thomsen 10,627 1.5
Republican Chris Wright 9,358 1.3
Republican Darrell McClanahan 5,637 0.8
Republican Robert Olson 2,975 0.4
Republican Jeremy Gundel 2,946 0.4
Republican Darren Grant 1,866 0.3
Total votes 697,347 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Sheryl Gladney, customer service agent[8]
  • Mike Hamra, restaurant conglomerate owner[44]
  • Hollis Laster[8]
  • Eric Morrison, pastor and candidate for governor in 2016 and 2020[8]

Disqualified

Endorsements

Mike Hamra

Newspapers

Crystal Quade

Statewide officials

State legislators

  • 40 state legislators[48]

Organizations

Labor unions

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Sheryl
Gladney 		Mike
Hamra 		Crystal
Quade 		Other Undecided
Remington Research Group[53] July 10–22, 2024 600 (LV) ± 3.8% 4% 23% 21% 9% 43%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[32] February 14–26, 2024 396 (LV) ± 5.57% 4% 5% 21% 4% 66%
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% – 2% 39% – 58%

Results

Results by county:
Quade
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Hamra
  •   50-60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
  •   20–30%
Tie
  •   20–30%

Quade led the race, winning slightly more than half of the votes, as well as 90 county equivalents out of 115.[f] She performed the best in Greene County, where the city of Springfield is located. Conversely, Hamra recorded his best result in Harrison County, with some more than 50% of the vote. Morrison failed to win a single county, but still managed to tie Pemiscot County, earning as many votes there as Hamra did.[54]

Democratic primary results[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Crystal Quade 189,822 50.2
Democratic Mike Hamra 119,702 31.7
Democratic Eric Morrison 36,985 9.8
Democratic Sheryl Gladney 25,287 6.7
Democratic Hollis Laster 5,973 1.6
Total votes 377,769 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[55] Solid R June 13, 2024
Inside Elections[56] Solid R July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] Safe R June 4, 2024
RCP[58] Likely R July 13, 2024
Elections Daily[59] Safe R July 12, 2023
CNalysis[60] Solid R August 17, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Crystal Quade (D)

Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Kehoe (R) 		Crystal
Quade (D) 		Other Undecided
Research Co.[62] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 38% 3% 7%
Remington Research Group[63][A] October 28–29, 2024 721 (LV) – 51% 40% 1%[g] 8%
ActiVote[64] October 11–27, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% – –
Remington Research Group[65][A] October 2–3, 2024 753 (LV) ± 3.2% 51% 41% 1%[h] 7%
ActiVote[66] September 3 – October 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 60% 40% – –
Emerson College[67][E] September 12–13, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 52% 36% 1%[i] 11%
Remington Research Group[68][A] September 4–5, 2024 940 (LV) – 52% 34% – 14%
YouGov/Saint Louis University[69] August 8–16, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.79% 51% 41% 3%[j] 6%
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 38% 33% – 29%
Hypothetical polling

Jay Ashcroft vs. Crystal Quade

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Ashcroft (R) 		Crystal
Quade (D) 		Other Undecided
Remington Research (R)[70][A] March 6–8, 2024 713 (LV) ± 3.9% 53% 36% – 11%
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 39% 34% – 27%

Bill Eigel vs. Crystal Quade

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Eigel (R) 		Crystal
Quade (D) 		Other Undecided
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 33% 34% – 33%

Mike Kehoe vs. Mike Hamra

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Kehoe (R) 		Mike
Hamra (D) 		Other Undecided
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 37% 27% – 36%

Jay Ashcroft vs. Mike Hamra

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Ashcroft (R) 		Mike
Hamra (D) 		Other Undecided
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 39% 29% – 32%

Bill Eigel vs. Mike Hamra

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Bill
Eigel (R) 		Mike
Hamra (D) 		Other Undecided
Show Me Victories (D)[36] October 26–31, 2023 407 (RV) ± 4.9% 33% 30% – 37%

Debate

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Green
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Kehoe Quade Slantz Lehmann
1 Sep. 20, 2024 Missouri Press Association David Lieb YouTube P P P P

Results

2024 Missouri gubernatorial election[71]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Kehoe 1,750,802 59.14% Increase 2.03%
Democratic Crystal Quade 1,146,173 38.72% Decrease 1.97%
Libertarian Bill Slantz 40,908 1.38% Decrease 0.25%
Green Paul Lehmann 22,359 0.76% Increase 0.19%
Write-in 24 0.00% Steady
Total votes 2,960,266 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By congressional district

Kehoe won six of eight congressional districts.[72]

District Kehoe Quade Representative
1st 22% 75% Cori Bush (118th Congress)
Wesley Bell (119th Congress)
2nd 56% 42% Ann Wagner
3rd 64% 33% Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)
Bob Onder (119th Congress)
4th 70% 28% Mark Alford
5th 38% 60% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 69% 29% Sam Graves
7th 70% 28% Eric Burlison
8th 76% 22% Jason Smith

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Darrell McClanahan III with 7%; Amber Thomsen with 4%; Jeremy Gundel with 2%; Robert Olson, Chris Wright, and Darren Grant with 1%
  3. ^ Robert Olson with 2%; Darrell McClanahan, Amber Thomsen and Chris Wright with 1%; Darren Grant and Jeremy Gundel with 0%
  4. ^ Amber Thomsen with 3%; Darren Grant and Robert Olsen with 2%; Jeremy Grundel and Chris Wright with 1%
  5. ^ Chris Wright with 3%; "Other" with 1%
  6. ^ Missouri is made up of 114 counties and the independent city of St. Louis
  7. ^ Slantz (L) with 1%
  8. ^ Slantz (L) with 1%
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  10. ^ "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Poll commissioned by the Missouri Scout
  2. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the American Dream PAC, which supports Kehoe
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Building America's Future
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Committee for Liberty PAC, which supports Ashcroft
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by The Hill

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  3. ^ "Missouri Governor Election Results 2024: Quade vs. Kehoe". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
  4. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  5. ^ Hancock, Jason (March 22, 2021). "Mike Kehoe passes on 2022 Senate run to focus on 2024 Missouri governor's race". Missouri Independent. Retrieved September 7, 2021.
  6. ^ Shorman, Jonathan (April 6, 2023). "Missouri's top election official Jay Ashcroft launches Republican campaign for governor". The Kansas City Star.
  7. ^ Singer, Jeff (August 17, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/17". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 17, 2023.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  9. ^ Krull, Ryan (February 29, 2024). "Missouri GOP Candidate for Governor Was Only 'Honorary' KKK Member". Riverfront Times. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  10. ^ a b c Bayless, Kacen (July 27, 2024). "Donald Trump hedges endorsement for Missouri governor, backs three major GOP candidates". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  11. ^ "Kehoe in fundraising lead in Missouri GOP governor's race". Fox2Now. June 25, 2024. Retrieved July 24, 2024.
  12. ^ "Gubernatorial hopeful Jay Ashcroft lands key endorsement from Missouri Right to Life". www.stltoday.com. July 18, 2023. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  13. ^ "Missouri Republican slammed for 'racist bigotry' in anti-immigrant campaign ad". The Independent. July 25, 2024. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  14. ^ Baechle, Shea (July 18, 2024). "Gov. Parson officially endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor". KRCG. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  15. ^ Hays, Brady (April 5, 2022). "Fire Fighter Association of Missouri endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 5, 2022.
  16. ^ "Kehoe backed by Missouri Fraternal Order of Police in gubernatorial bid". The Missouri Times. February 28, 2022. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  17. ^ Turner, Kelton (May 19, 2022). "Kehoe backed by American Council of Engineering Companies of Missouri". Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  18. ^ a b c "Kehoe Gains 12th Endorsement in Bid for Missouri Governor in '24". Northwest MO Info. November 28, 2022. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  19. ^ a b Brady, Hays (March 22, 2022). "Missouri Agribusiness Association endorses Kehoe for governor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved April 4, 2022.
  20. ^ "Mike Kehoe gains gubernatorial endorsement from Missouri Chamber of Commerce". Springfield News-Leader. Archived from the original on September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  21. ^ "Missouri Farm Bureau PAC endorses Mike Kehoe for Governor in 2024".
  22. ^ McFarland, Matthew (August 26, 2022). "Missouri Forest Products Association endorses Kehoe for 2024 Governor race". The Missouri Times. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  23. ^ Lamons, Jarett (June 19, 2024). "Missouri Hospital Association endorses Mike Kehoe". The Missouri Times. Retrieved June 29, 2024.
  24. ^ Battleground Connect
  25. ^ Remington Research Group
  26. ^ ARW Strategies (R)
  27. ^ Remington Research (R)
  28. ^ Emerson College
  29. ^ a b American Viewpoint
  30. ^ Peak Insights
  31. ^ Tyson Group
  32. ^ a b YouGov/Saint Louis University
  33. ^ Remington Research (R)
  34. ^ ARW Strategies (R)
  35. ^ Remington Research (R)
  36. ^ a b c d e f g h Show Me Victories (D)
  37. ^ Remington Research (R)
  38. ^ Remington Research (R)
  39. ^ Remington Research (R)
  40. ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  41. ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  42. ^ a b "Missouri Governor Primary Election Results 2024". The New York Times. August 6, 2024. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  43. ^ Sellem, Lucas (July 9, 2023). "Rep. Crystal Quade announces run for MO governor". KMOV. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  44. ^ Keller, Rudi (October 27, 2023). "Springfield businessman Mike Hamra joins Democratic race for Missouri governor". Missouri Independent. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  45. ^ Ballentine, Summer (February 27, 2024). "Exiled Missouri lawmaker blocked from running for governor as a Democrat". The Associated Press. Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  46. ^ "Editorial: Our endorsements in Missouri's GOP and Democratic gubernatorial primaries". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. August 1, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  47. ^ a b c "Crystal Quade gains endorsement from Planned Parenthood in 2024 gubernatorial bid". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  48. ^ Sundrup, Jack (October 11, 2023). "Missouri Democrat Crystal Quade could face intraparty competition in bid for governor". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  49. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved September 29, 2023.
  50. ^ "2024 Missouri Sierra Club Election Endorsements | Sierra Club". www.sierraclub.org. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  51. ^ a b Rowden, Tim (November 27, 2023). "MLabor lining up behind Crystal Quade in her bid for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  52. ^ Alpert, Lynn (September 25, 2023). "Missouri AFL-CIO endorses Crystal Quade for governor". The Labor Tribune. Retrieved September 30, 2023.
  53. ^ Remington Research Group
  54. ^ "2024 Missouri Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  55. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  56. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  57. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  58. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  59. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  60. ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  61. ^ "The Kansas City Star's endorsement in the Nov. 5 election for Missouri governor". The Kansas City Star. October 21, 2024. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  62. ^ Research Co.
  63. ^ Remington Research Group
  64. ^ ActiVote
  65. ^ Remington Research Group
  66. ^ ActiVote
  67. ^ Emerson College
  68. ^ Remington Research Group
  69. ^ YouGov/Saint Louis University
  70. ^ Remington Research (R)
  71. ^ General Election, November 05, 2024, Official Results, Missouri Secretary of State, December 23, 2024.
  72. ^ https://x.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1871343521145491920

Official campaign websites