Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election

In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the 2021 election, held on 6 May 2021.[1]

Graphical summary

This graph shows opinion poll results with trendlines for the 30-day moving averages. The SNP led in all polls, with the Conservatives and Labour coming second or third behind them.

Key

  SNP – Scottish National Party
  Conservative – Scottish Conservatives
  Labour – Scottish Labour
  Lib Dem – Scottish Liberal Democrats
  Green – Scottish Greens
  UKIP – UK Independence Party
  Reform – Reform UK
  SSP – Scottish Socialist Party
  Alba – Alba Party
  AFU – All for Unity

Constituency vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary

Poll results

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		SNP Con Lab Lib Dem Green UKIP Ref UK Other Lead
2021 Scottish Parliament election 6 May 2021 – 47.7% 21.9% 21.6% 6.9% 1.3% 0.0% – 0.6% 25.8%
4 May 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[2]
YouGov The Times 2–4 May 2021 1,144 52% 20% 19% 6% 2% – – 1% 32%
Survation The Courier 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,008 49% 21% 21% 8% 1% – – 1% 28%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,001 42% 25% 22% 8% – – – 3% 17%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,502 50% 20% 22% 6% 2% – – 1% 28%
Opinium Sky News 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,015 51% 23% 19% 7% – – – – 28%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28–30 Apr 2021 1,096 48% 21% 20% 7% 3% – – 1% 27%
BMG The Herald 27–30 Apr 2021 1,023 49% 19% 21% 9% – – – – 28%
27 Apr 2021 Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[3]
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 23–27 Apr 2021 1,001 45% 23% 23% 7% – – – 1% 22%
Survation GMB 23–26 Apr 2021 1,008 47% 21% 21% 8% – – – 2% 26%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 21–26 Apr 2021 1,075 45% 20% 22% 8% 4% – – – 23%
Survation The Sunday Post 20–22 Apr 2021 1,037 50% 21% 21% 7% 1% – – 1% 29%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 16–20 Apr 2021 1,001 46% 25% 20% 6% – – – 3% 21%
YouGov The Times 16–20 Apr 2021 1,204 49% 21% 21% 6% 1% – – 2% 28%
13 Apr 2021 STV leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[4]
Panelbase Believe in Scotland 9–12 Apr 2021 1,002 47% 23% 20% 6% 4% – – – 24%
Lord Ashcroft N/A 7–19 Apr 2021 2,017 49% 22% 15% 8% 5% – – – 27%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 2–7 Apr 2021 1,007 49% 23% 18% 6% – – – 3% 26%
Opinium Sky News 1–6 Apr 2021 1,023 53% 21% 18% 6% – – – 1% 32%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 1,038 53% 20% 18% 6% 2% – – 1% 33%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 1,009 49% 22% 20% 6% 2% – – – 27%
30 Mar 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater[5]
Survation The Courier 29–30 Mar 2021 1,000 49% 21% 20% 9% 1% – – – 28%
26 Mar 2021 Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party[6]
Find Out Now Daily Express 23–26 Mar 2021 1,022 50% 21% 17% 5% 4% – 1% 1% 29%
YouGov The Times 19–22 Mar 2021 N/A 50% 24% 17% 5% 2% – – 2% 26%
BMG The Herald 16–19 Mar 2021 1,021 48% 21% 20% 8% 1% – – 1% 27%
Survation The Courier 11–18 Mar 2021 1,515 50% 21% 20% 8% 1% – – – 29%
Opinium Sky News 11–16 Mar 2021 1,096 46% 24% 20% 6% 4% – – 1% 22%
Survation Scotland in Union 9–12 Mar 2021 1,011 46% 21% 23% 8% 1% – – 1% 23%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 5–10 Mar 2021 1,009 48% 23% 20% 8% – – – 2% 25%
YouGov The Times 4–8 Mar 2021 1,100 52% 22% 17% 6% 2% – – 1% 30%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–5 Mar 2021 1,013 47% 23% 20% 7% 2% – – 1% 24%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[7]
Survation Daily Record 24–25 Feb 2021 1,011 50% 21% 20% 7% 3% – – 2% 29%
Ipsos MORI STV News 15–21 Feb 2021 1,031 52% 23% 15% 5% 3% – – 2% 29%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 4–9 Feb 2021 1,002 50% 23% 19% 6% – – – 2% 27%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 19–22 Jan 2021 1,059 52% 20% 17% 6% 3% – – – 32%
Survation Scot Goes Pop 11–13 Jan 2021 1,020 51% 19% 19% 9% – – – – 32%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 8–13 Jan 2021 1,016 49% 20% 20% 8% – – – 4% 29%
06 Jan 2021 The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK[8]
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 11–15 Dec 2020 1,013 52% 19% 19% 7% – – – 3% 33%
Survation N/A 4–9 Dec 2020 1,010 53% 20% 20% 6% 1% – – – 33%
Ipsos MORI STV News 20–26 Nov 2020 1,006 55% 22% 14% 6% 1% – – 1% 33%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 5–11 Nov 2020 1,020 53% 21% 18% 5% 3% – – <1% 32%
YouGov N/A 6–10 Nov 2020 1,089 56% 19% 15% 6% 2% – – – 37%
Survation N/A 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 1,071 54% 19% 18% 8% – – – 2% 35%
Ipsos MORI STV News 2–9 Oct 2020 1,045 58% 19% 13% 8% 1% – – 2% 39%
Savanta ComRes N/A 9 Oct 2020 1,003 50% 23% 18% 6% – – – 2% 27%
JL Partners Politico 17–21 Sep 2020 1,016 58% 19% 13% 8% 2% – – <1% 39%
Survation N/A 2–7 Sep 2020 1,018 53% 20% 18% 7% – – – 2% 33%
Savanta ComRes N/A 6–13 Aug 2020 1,008 51% 24% 17% 6% – – – 2% 27%
YouGov The Times 6–10 Aug 2020 1,142 57% 20% 14% 8% 1% – – 1% 37%
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[9]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 1,026 55% 20% 15% 6% 3% – – <1% 35%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1–5 Jun 2020 1,022 53% 21% 16% 6% 3% – – <1% 32%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1–5 May 2020 1,086 53% 23% 15% 5% 3% – – 1% 30%
YouGov N/A 24–27 Apr 2020 1,095 54% 23% 12% 8% 2% – – 1% 31%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 24–26 Mar 2020 1,023 51% 26% 14% 6% 3% – – <1% 25%
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives[10]
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 28–31 Jan 2020 1,016 50% 26% 14% 7% 3% – – <1% 24%
Survation Progress Scotland 20–22 Jan 2020 1,019 51% 23% 17% 7% – – – 1% 28%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election[11]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–6 Dec 2019 1,020 43% 26% 19% 8% 2% – 2% <1% 17%
YouGov The Times 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 1,002 46% 26% 14% 11% 1% – 0% 0% [nb 1] 20%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 20–22 Nov 2019 1,009 43% 26% 17% 9% 2% – 3% <1% 17%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 42% 21% 19% 10% 3% <1% 4% <1% 21%
YouGov The Times 29 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 1,059 45% 23% 13% 12% 2% – 3% 1% [nb 1] 22%
29 Aug 2019 Shetland by-election[12]
1 Aug 2019 Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie[13]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 42% 20% 16% 11% 3% <1% 7% <1% [nb 2] 22%
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election[14]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 41% 20% 18% 8% 3% 1% 7% 1% [nb 3] 21%
YouGov The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 46% 22% 16% 7% 3% – 4% 1% [nb 3] 24%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 40% 22% 20% 6% 3% 1% 5% 2% [nb 4] 18%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 1,002 41% 27% 19% 8% 3% 2% – <1% 14%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 43% 24% 22% 9% – – – 2% 19%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 1,028 41% 25% 23% 6% 3% 1% – <1% 16%
Panelbase Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 39% 27% 24% 6% 3% 1% – <1% 12%
Survation Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 38% 26% 25% 9% 1% – – 0% 12%
Survation/SNP N/A 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 44% 24% 23% 8% – – – 1% 20%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 1,024 41% 26% 21% 6% 3% 2% – <1% 15%
Survation The Sunday Post 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 1,036 43% 24% 23% 9% – – – 2% 19%
Survation Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 44% 24% 21% 9% – – – 3% 20%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 1% – <1% 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 40% 28% 24% 6% 2% <1% – <1% 12%
YouGov The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 1% – 1% 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 23–28 Mar 2018 1,037 40% 28% 22% 6% 3% <1% – <1% 12%
Survation Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 42% 25% 25% 6% – – – 2% 17%
YouGov The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 38% 26% 23% 7% 3% 2% – 0% 12%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 15–20 Dec 2017 1,022 39% 26% 25% 6% 2% <1% – <1% 13%
Survation The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 39% 24% 28% 7% – – – 2% 11%
Survation Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 39% 24% 25% 8% – – – 3% 14%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour[15]
YouGov The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 42% 25% 25% 5% 2% 1% – 0% 17%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 42% 26% 25% 7% – – – 2% 16%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 31 Aug – 7 Sep 2017 1,021 42% 28% 22% 6% 2% <1% – <1% 14%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election[16]
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections[17]
YouGov The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 51% 24% 14% 6% 4% 1% – 1% 27%
YouGov The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 48% 25% 15% 6% 3% 1% – 0% 23%
BMG N/A 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 1,010 51% 21% 18% 7% – – – 3% 30%
YouGov The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 52% 21% 16% 5% 3% 2% – 0% 31%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 50% 21% 18% 8% – – – 4% 29%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 – 46.5% 22.0% 22.6% 7.8% 0.6% – – 0.5% 23.9%

Regional vote

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary

Poll results

Pollster Client Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dem Alba UKIP Ref UK SSP Other Lead
2021 Scottish Parliament election 6 May 2021 – 40.3% 23.5% 17.9% 8.1% 5.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% – 3.0%[nb 5] 16.8%
4 May 2021 BBC Scotland leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[18]
YouGov The Times 2–4 May 2021 1,144 38% 22% 16% 13% 5% 3% 0% 0% – 3%[nb 6] 16%
Survation The Courier 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,008 36% 21% 19% 10% 7% 3% – – – – 15%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 30 Apr – 4 May 2021 1,001 34% 23% 19% 9% 6% 2% – – – – 11%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,502 39% 23% 18% 12% 4% 2% 0% 0% – 2%[nb 6] 16%
Opinium Sky News 28 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,015 41% 23% 17% 8% 6% 3% – – – – 18%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28–30 Apr 2021 1,096 39% 22% 16% 8% 7% 4% – – – 4%[nb 7] 17%
BMG The Herald 27–30 Apr 2021 1,023 37% 22% 17% 9% 8% 4% – – – –[nb 7] 15%
27 Apr 2021 Channel 4 News leaders' debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[3]
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 23–27 Apr 2021 1,001 36% 22% 19% 10% 5% 2% – – – 8% 14%
Survation GMB 23–26 Apr 2021 1,008 37% 22% 18% 10% 7% 2% – 1% – 1% 15%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 21–26 Apr 2021 1,075 36% 21% 18% 10% 6% 6% – – – –[nb 7] 15%
Survation The Sunday Post 20–22 Apr 2021 1,037 35% 20% 22% 10% 7% 3% 1% 1% – 2% 13%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 16–20 Apr 2021 1,001 38% 23% 17% 7% 5% 1% – – – 7% 15%
YouGov The Times 16–20 Apr 2021 1,204 39% 22% 17% 10% 5% 2% – 1% – 2% 17%
13 Apr 2021 STV leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Harvie[18]
Panelbase Believe in Scotland 9–12 Apr 2021 1,002 36% 22% 17% 9% 6% 6% – – – 4%[nb 7] 14%
Lord Ashcroft N/A 7–19 Apr 2021 2,017 42% 22% 16% 9% 7% 2% – 2% – – 20%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 2–7 Apr 2021 1,007 40% 21% 18% 9% 7% 3% – – – 3% 19%
Opinium Sky News 1–6 Apr 2021 1,023 44% 22% 17% 7% 5% 2% – – – 3% 22%
Ipsos MORI STV News 30 Mar – 4 Apr 2021 1,038 38% 21% 18% 12% 6% 3% – – – 2% 17%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 1,009 39% 21% 17% 8% 5% 6% – – – 4%[nb 8] 18%
30 Mar 2021 BBC Scotland leaders debate between Sarwar, Rennie, Ross, Sturgeon and Slater[5]
Survation The Courier 29–30 Mar 2021 1,000 38% 18% 19% 11% 8% 3% 1% 1% – 1% 19%
26 Mar 2021 Former first minister Alex Salmond launches the Alba Party[6]
Find Out Now Daily Express 23–26 Mar 2021 1,022 42% 21% 16% 11% 5% – – 2% – 2% 21%
YouGov The Times 19–22 Mar 2021 N/A 46% 24% 15% 8% 5% – – – – 3% 22%
BMG The Herald 16–19 Mar 2021 1,021 42% 22% 17% 8% 8% – – 1% – 2% 20%
Survation The Courier 11–18 Mar 2021 1,515 39% 19% 20% 11% 7% – – 1% – 2% 19%
Opinium Sky News 11–16 Mar 2021 1,096 42% 22% 19% 7% 5% – – – – 4% 20%
Survation Scotland in Union 9–12 Mar 2021 1,011 39% 21% 20% 10% 8% – – – – 2% 18%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 5–10 Mar 2021 1,009 40% 24% 18% 10% 6% – – – – 2% 16%
YouGov The Times 4–8 Mar 2021 1,100 45% 21% 16% 6% 5% – – – 3% 4% 24%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–5 Mar 2021 1,013 42% 22% 19% 6% 7% – – – – 4% 20%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour[7]
Survation Daily Record 24–25 Feb 2021 1,011 38% 21% 20% 11% 7% – – – – 3% 17%
Ipsos MORI STV News 15–21 Feb 2021 1,031 47% 22% 14% 8% 6% – – – – 3%[nb 9] 25%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 4–9 Feb 2021 1,002 39% 21% 21% 10% 9% – – – – 3% 18%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 19–22 Jan 2021 1,059 46% 20% 16% 8% 6% – – – – 3% 26%
Survation Scot Goes Pop 11–13 Jan 2021 1,020 40% 17% 19% 11% 9% – – – – – 19%
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 8–13 Jan 2021 1,016 40% 18% 20% 10% 9% – – – – 3% 20%
06 Jan 2021 The Brexit Party is re-registered as Reform UK[8]
Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 11–15 Dec 2020 1,013 39% 20% 20% 11% 7% – – – – 3% 19%
Survation N/A 4–9 Dec 2020 1,010 41% 18% 20% 10% 7% – – 1% – – 21%
Ipsos MORI STV News 20–26 Nov 2020 1,006 47% 22% 16% 7% 6% – – – – – 25%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 5–11 Nov 2020 1,020 46% 20% 18% 8% 6% – – – – 3% 26%
YouGov N/A 6–10 Nov 2020 1,089 47% 20% 13% 7% 6% – – – 3% – 27%
Survation N/A 28 Oct – 3 Nov 2020 1,071 43% 17% 19% 10% 7% – 1% 2% – 1% 24%
Ipsos MORI STV News 2–9 Oct 2020 1,045 48% 18% 14% 9% 8% – – – – – 30%
Savanta ComRes N/A 9 Oct 2020 1,003 41% 21% 18% 11% 7% – – – – 1% 20%
JL Partners Politico 17–21 Sep 2020 1,016 53% 19% 13% 5% 8% – – – – – 34%
Survation N/A 2–7 Sep 2020 1,018 42% 18% 18% 10% 8% – 2% 2% – <1% 24%
Savanta ComRes N/A 6–13 Aug 2020 1,008 43% 21% 17% 10% 8% – – – – 2% 22%
YouGov The Times 6–10 Aug 2020 1,142 47% 21% 14% 6% 7% – – 1% 4% 1% 26%
05 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives[9]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 1,026 50% 18% 15% 8% 6% – – – – 2% 32%
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1–5 Jun 2020 1,022 48% 19% 16% 7% 8% – – – – 2% 29%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 1–5 May 2020 1,086 48% 22% 15% 7% 6% – – – – 1% 26%
YouGov N/A 24–27 Apr 2020 1,095 45% 23% 12% 8% 7% – – – 4% 1% 22%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 24–26 Mar 2020 1,023 48% 26% 13% 6% 6% – – – – 1% 22%
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives[10]
Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 28–31 Jan 2020 1,016 47% 25% 14% 7% 7% – – – – <1% 22%
Survation Progress Scotland 20–22 Jan 2020 1,019 38% 21% 19% 9% 9% – 1% 2% – – 17%
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election[11]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 3–6 Dec 2019 1,020 38% 26% 18% 6% 9% – – 2% – – 12%
YouGov The Times 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2019 1,002 37% 25% 14% 8% 10% – – 2% 3% <1% [nb 1] 12%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 20–22 Nov 2019 1,009 39% 25% 17% 6% 9% – – 3% – – 14%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 38% 21% 18% 6% 11% – <1% 4% – <1% 17%
YouGov The Times 30 Aug – 3 Sep 2019 1,059 39% 20% 11% 8% 13% – 1% 5% 3% <1% [nb 1] 19%
29 Aug 2019 Shetland by-election[12]
1 Aug 2019 Lorna Slater is elected co-leader of the Scottish Greens alongside Patrick Harvie[13]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 39% 20% 16% 7% 10% – <1% 6% – <1% [nb 2] 19%
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election[14]
Panelbase The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 37% 19% 18% 7% 8% – 2% 6% – 2%[nb 4] 18%
YouGov The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 37% 20% 15% 10% 7% – 2% 5% 3% 2%[nb 4] 17%
Panelbase N/A 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 37% 22% 19% 7% 7% – 2% 4% – 2%[nb 4] 15%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2019 1,002 36% 26% 19% 6% 9% – 3% – – <1% 10%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 32% 22% 19% 11% 11% – 3% – – 1% 10%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 30 Nov – 5 Dec 2018 1,028 38% 26% 22% 6% 7% – 1% – – <1% 12%
Panelbase Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 37% 26% 22% 6% 6% – 2% – – <1% 11%
Survation Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 32% 23% 23% 9% 9% – – – – 4% 9%
Survation SNP 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 40% 25% 22% 4% 8% – – – – 2% 15%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2018 1,024 35% 26% 20% 7% 8% – 2% – – 1% 9%
Survation The Sunday Post 28 Sep – 2 Oct 2018 1,036 32% 21% 23% 10% 8% – 5% – – 0% 9%
Survation Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 33% 19% 21% 11% 10% – 5% – – 1% 12%
Panelbase Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 36% 27% 23% 6% 7% – 1% – – <1% 9%
Panelbase The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 36% 26% 23% 7% 6% – 1% – – <1% 10%
YouGov The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 32% 26% 21% 9% 7% – 1% – 3% <1% 6%
Survation Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 33% 23% 23% 9% 8% – 3% – – 1% 10%
YouGov The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 32% 25% 22% 10% 7% – 3% – 2% <1% 7%
Survation The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 32% 21% 24% 10% 10% – 3% – – 1% 8%
Survation Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 33% 22% 25% 8% 8% – 3% – – <1% 8%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard is elected leader of Scottish Labour[15]
YouGov The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 35% 23% 24% 6% 6% – 1% – 3% <1% 11%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 31% 21% 25% 9% 10% – 3% – – <1% 6%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election[16]
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections[17]
YouGov The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 40% 25% 14% 12% 5% – 2% – 1%[a] 1% 15%
YouGov The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 39% 24% 14% 11% 6% – 4% – 1%[a] 0% 15%
BMG N/A 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2016 1,010 43% 20% 16% 8% 7% – 3% – – 1% 23%
YouGov The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 45% 21% 15% 9% 6% – 2% – – 0% 24%
Survation Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 41% 20% 16% 12% 7% – 4% – – 1% 21%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 – 41.7% 22.9% 19.1% 6.6% 5.2% – 2.0% – 0.5%[b] 2.4% 18.8%

Methodology

Each polling organisation are members of the British Polling Council and uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data. All organisations remove voters who do not give a voting intention from their headline figures; this is usually ranges from 10% to 15% of respondents likely to vote. A brief description of each company's methods is as follows:

  • Panelbase collects its data via an online panel, with results weighted to be demographically representative of the voting age population in terms of age, sex, and country of birth, previous general election vote and independence referendum vote. Additionally, the voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents were to vote.
  • Survation collects data from its online panel, with the results weighted to the profile of all Scottish adults of voting age in terms of age, sex, region, previous general election vote, previous Scottish Parliament election constituency vote, EU membership referendum vote and independence referendum vote. Responses for voting intention were additionally weighted by likelihood to vote in the election. The data for the 3–5 October 2018 poll for the Scottish National Party was collected via telephone, instead of the online panel.
  • YouGov collects its data through an online survey of its panel, and weights its respondents to be representative of the voting age population as a whole in terms of age by gender by education level (such as Male aged between 25 and 49 with a high level of education), social grades, previous general election vote, independence referendum vote, the respondents' political attention and birthplace (Scotland, elsewhere in the United Kingdom and outside the UK). Additionally, the headline voting intention data is weighted by how likely respondents said they were to vote and whether they voted at the previous general election.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Figure for RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance, of which the Scottish Socialist Party was a constituent in the previous election.
  2. ^ Contested the election as part of RISE – Scotland's Left Alliance.

Footnotes

  1. ^ a b c d Change UK on 0%.
  2. ^ a b Change UK on less than 1%.
  3. ^ a b Change UK on 1%.
  4. ^ a b c d Change UK on 2%.
  5. ^ All for Unity on 0.9%, Scottish Family Party on 0.6%, Freedom Alliance on 0.2%, independents on 0.1%, others on 1.2%.
  6. ^ a b All for Unity on 1%.
  7. ^ a b c d All for Unity on 2%.
  8. ^ All for Unity on 4%.
  9. ^ Independence for Scotland Party on 1%.

References

  1. ^ "Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill passes stage 3". Scottish Government. 25 February 2016. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  2. ^ "Scottish election 2021: Sturgeon rules out 'wildcat' indyref2 vote in final leaders debate". BBC News. 4 May 2021. Retrieved 4 May 2021.
  3. ^ a b "Five party leaders go head-to-head in Channel 4's live election debate". Channel 4 News. 27 April 2021. Retrieved 27 April 2021.
  4. ^ "Party leaders go head-to-head in STV's live election debate". STV News. 13 April 2021. Retrieved 13 April 2021.
  5. ^ a b "Scotland election 2021: Leaders go head-to-head in first TV debate". BBC News. 30 March 2021. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
  6. ^ a b "Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new political party". BBC News. 27 March 2021. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  7. ^ a b "Anas Sarwar wins Scottish Labour leadership race". BBC News. 27 February 2021. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  8. ^ a b "Party registration decisions". Electoral Commission. 2021-01-06. Retrieved 2021-01-06.
  9. ^ a b "Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader". BBC News. 5 August 2020. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  10. ^ a b "Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader". BBC News. 14 February 2020. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  11. ^ a b Baker, Carl; Uberoi, Elise; Cracknell, Richard (28 January 2020). "General Election 2019: full results and analysis". UK Parliament. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  12. ^ a b "Lib Dems hold off SNP to win Shetland by-election". BBC News. 30 August 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  13. ^ a b "Scottish Greens elect Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater as co-leaders". BBC News. 1 August 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
  14. ^ a b "EU Elections 2019: SNP to have three MEPs as Labour vote collapses". BBC News. 27 May 2019. Retrieved 30 March 2021.
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