Opinion polling for the 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom

Various opinion polls were conducted in advance of the 2019 European Parliament election. Before the April delay, a number of polls asked respondents to imagine how they would vote in a then-hypothetical scenario in which European elections would be held.

Great Britain

Graphical summary

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

National opinion polling

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Area Sample
size 		UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 GB – 3.3% 14.1% 9.1% 12.1%[a] 20.3% 3.6% 1.0% 3.4% 31.6% 1.6% 11.3%
UK 3.2% 13.6% 8.8% 11.8%[b] 19.6% 3.5% 1.0% 3.3% 30.5% 4.7% 11.0%
Survation/Daily Mail 22 May 2019 UK 2,029 3% 23% 14% 7% 12% 3% – 4% 31% 4% 8%
BMG/The Independent 20–22 May 2019 GB 1,601 2% 18% 12% 8% 17% 3% 1% 4% 35% 1% 17%
Ipsos MORI/The Evening Standard 20–22 May 2019 GB 1,527 3% 15% 9% 10% 20% 3% 0% 3% 35% 3% 15%
YouGov/The Times 19–21 May 2019 GB 3,864 3% 13% 7% 12% 19% 3% 1% 4% 37% 2% 18%
Number Cruncher Politics 18–21 May 2019 GB 1,005 2% 19% 15% 7% 16% 4% 1% 4% 33% 1% 14%
Kantar 14–21 May 2019 GB 2,316 4% 24% 13% 8% 15% 3% 0% 5% 27% 1% 3%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–21 May 2019 GB 2,033 3% 25% 12% 7% 15% 4% – 3% 30% 1% 5%
Opinium 17–20 May 2019 UK 2,005 2% 17% 12% 7% 15% 3% 1% 3% 38% 2% 21%
Survation/Daily Mail 17 May 2019 UK 1,000 3% 24% 14% 4% 12% 4% 1% 3% 30% 4%[c] 6%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 13–17 May 2019 GB 4,161 3% 22% 12% 7% 14% 3% 1% 5% 32% 1% 10%
YouGov/Best for Britain/Hope Not Hate 8–17 May 2019 GB 9,260 3% 15% 9% 11% 17% 3% 1% 4% 34% 3% 17%
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Sunday Express 15–16 May 2019 GB 2,041 2% 23% 9% 9% 16% 4% 1% 4% 31% 1% 8%
Opinium/The Observer 14–16 May 2019 UK 2,009 2% 20% 12% 6% 15% 4% 1% 3% 34% 3% 14%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 May 2019 GB 7,192 3% 15% 9% 10% 16% 3% 1% 5% 35% 3% 19%
Hanbury Strategy/Politico 9–13 May 2019 GB 2,000 3% 25% 13% 6% 14% 4% – 6% 30% 0% 5%
ComRes/The Daily Telegraph 10–12 May 2019 GB 2,028 3% 25% 15% 7% 13% 3% 0% 6% 27% 1% 2%
Opinium/The Observer 8–10 May 2019 UK 2,004 4% 21% 11% 8% 12% 4% 1% 3% 34% 2% 13%
BMG/The Independent 7–10 May 2019 GB 1,541 3% 22% 12% 10% 19% 2% 0% 4% 26% 1% 4%
ComRes/Brexit Express 9 May 2019 GB 2,034 3% 25% 13% 8% 14% 3% 0% 6% 27% 1% 2%
Survation/Good Morning Britain 8–9 May 2019 UK 1,303 4% 24% 12% 7%[d] 11% 4% 1% 4% 30% 3%[e] 6%
YouGov/The Times 8–9 May 2019 GB 2,212 3% 16% 10% 11% 15% 3% 1% 5% 34% 3% 18%
Opinium/People's Vote 3–7 May 2019 UK 2,000 4% 26% 14% 6% 12% 5% 2% 2% 29% 1% 3%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign 1–6 May 2019 GB 4,060 2% 26% 14% 6% 11% 3% 1% 8% 28% 1% 2%
2 May 2019 Local elections in England and Northern Ireland[1][2]
YouGov/The Times 29–30 Apr 2019 GB 1,630 4% 21% 13% 9% 10% 4% 9% 30% 1% 9%
YouGov/Hope Not Hate 23–26 Apr 2019 GB 5,412 5% 22% 13% 10% 7% 5% 10% 28% 1% 6%
Survation 17–25 Apr 2019 UK 1,999 7% 27% 16% 4% 8% 3% 1% 4% 27% 3%[c] Tie
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 GB 2,030 5% 33% 20% 4% 7% 4% – 5% 20% 1% 13%
Opinium/The Observer 21–23 Apr 2019 UK 2,004 3% 28% 14% 6% 7% 5% 1% 7% 28% 1% Tie
YouGov/The Times 16–17 Apr 2019 GB 1,755 6% 22% 17% 10% 9% 5% 8% 23% 1% 1%
ComRes/Brexit Express 16 Apr 2019 GB 1,061 5% 33% 18% 5% 9% 4% 0% 9% 17% 1% 15%
YouGov/People's Vote 15–16 Apr 2019 GB 1,855 7% 22% 15% 10% 9% 4% 6% 27% 1% 5%
Opinium/The Observer 9–12 Apr 2019 UK 2,007 13% 29% 17% 6% 10% 6% 1% 4% 12% 2% 12%
YouGov/The Times 10–11 Apr 2019 GB 1,843 14% 24% 16% 8% 8% 6% 7% 15% 1% 8%
Hanbury Strategy/Open Europe 5–8 Apr 2019 GB 2,000 8% 38% 23% 4% 8% 4% 0% 4% 10% 1% 15%
Opinium/The Observer 28–29 Mar 2019 UK 2,008 18% 30% 24% 8% 10% 4% 1% – – 5% 6%
22 Mar 2019 Nigel Farage becomes leader of the Brexit Party[3]
Opinium/The Observer 12–15 Mar 2019 UK 2,008 17% 29% 28% 6% 11% 4% 1% – – 5% 1%
Number Cruncher Politics/Politico 10–17 Jan 2019 UK 1,003 10% 37% 36% 5% 8% 3% 1% – – 1% 1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 GB – 27.5% 25.4% 23.9% 7.9%[a] 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% – – 5.3% 2.1%
UK 26.6% 24.4% 23.0% 7.6%[b] 6.6% 2.4% 0.7% – – 8.6% 2.2%

MRP and RPP estimates

ComRes, like YouGov in the 2017 general election, employed multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) as well as regularised prediction and poststratification (RPP) to model voting behavior in every region in Great Britain using large numbers of survey interviews on voting intentions (an approach described as identifying "patterns in responses across [regions] that have similar characteristics, and then work[ing] out the implications of those patterns for each").[4]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Area Sample
size 		UKIP Lab Con Green Lib Dem SNP Plaid Cymru Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 GB – 3.3% 14.1% 9.1% 12.1%[a] 20.3% 3.6% 1.0% 3.4% 31.6% 1.6% 11.3%
UK 3.2% 13.6% 8.8% 11.8%[b] 19.6% 3.5% 1.0% 3.3% 30.5% 4.7% 11.0%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (RPP) 13–17 May 2019 GB 3,572 2% 24% 11% 6% 15% 4% 4% 32% 0% 8%
ComRes/Electoral Calculus/Centrum Campaign (MRP) 1–6 May 2019 GB 3,583 3% 27% 14% 6% 11% 4% 8% 26% 0% 1%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 GB – 27.5% 25.4% 23.9% 7.9%[a] 6.9% 2.5% 0.7% – – 5.3% 2.1%
UK 26.6% 24.4% 23.0% 7.6%[b] 6.6% 2.4% 0.7% – – 8.6% 2.2%

London only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 – 23.9% 7.9% 2.1% 12.4% 27.2% 5.2% 17.9% 3.3% 3.2%
YouGov/Queen Mary University of London 7–10 May 2019 1,015 24% 10% 1% 14% 17% 7% 20% 5% 4%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 – 36.7% 22.5% 16.9% 8.9% 6.7% – – 8.3% 14.1%

Scotland only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		SNP Lab Con UKIP Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 – 37.8% 9.3% 11.6% 1.8% 8.2% 13.9% 1.9% 14.8% 0.5% 23.0%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 38% 16% 11% 2% 4% 10% 2% 16% <1% 22%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 40% 14% 10% 3% 7% 6% 6% 13% 0% 26%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 39% 20% 16% 2% 3% 6% 4% 10% <1% 19%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 – 29.0% 25.9% 17.2% 10.5% 8.1% 7.1% – – 2.3% 3.1%

Wales only

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab UKIP Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dem Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 – 15.3% 3.3% 6.5% 19.6% 6.3% 13.6% 2.9% 32.5% – 12.9%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 15% 2% 7% 19% 8% 10% 2% 36% 1% 17%
YouGov/Plaid Cymru 10–15 May 2019 1,113 18% 3% 7% 16% 8% 10% 4% 33% 0% 15%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 30% 11% 16% 15% 5% 6% 8% 10% 1% 14%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 – 28.1% 27.6% 17.4% 15.3% 4.5% 3.9% – – 3.1% 0.6%

Northern Ireland

The following polls reflect first preferences only.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted 		Sample
size 		Sinn Féin DUP UUP SDLP TUV Alliance UKIP Green Other Lead
2019 European Parliament election 23 May 2019 – 22.2% 21.8% 9.3% 13.7% 10.8% 18.5% 0.9% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] 18–19 May 2019 1,482 26.3% 21.8% 11.8% 13.3% 9.3% 11.6% 1.7% 3.3% 0.9%[f] 4.5%
LucidTalk/The Times/U105[5] 4–7 May 2019 1,405 27.2% 20.2% 11.8% 13.1% 8.5% 11.3% 1.7% 4.6% 1.6%[g] 7.0%
2014 European Parliament election 22 May 2014 – 25.5% 20.9% 13.3% 13.0% 12.1% 7.1% 3.9% 1.7% 2.3% 4.6%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party
  2. ^ a b c d Including the Scottish Green Party and the Green Party in Northern Ireland
  3. ^ a b Including the DUP with 2% and English Democrats with 1%
  4. ^ Including the Scottish Green Party with 1%
  5. ^ Including the DUP with 2%
  6. ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 0.7%
  7. ^ Includes independent Jane Morrice with 1.4%

References

  1. ^ "England local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  2. ^ "Northern Ireland local elections 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
  3. ^ "Nigel Farage back in frontline politics as Brexit Party leader". BBC News. 22 March 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  4. ^ "YouGov UK General Election MRP Estimates - February 2019" (PDF). YouGov. 11 February 2019. Retrieved 22 May 2019.
  5. ^ a b "NI TRACKER POLL – NI EUROPEAN ELECTION (23RD May 2019) POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – GENERAL REPORT" (PDF). LucidTalk. 30 May 2019. Retrieved 2 June 2019.