Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election

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In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.

Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.[1][2]

In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader following the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.

2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election,[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.

On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.

Background

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.[4]

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[5] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[6][7][8]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Polling since 2005

Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour Party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December, the Conservative Party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader.[9]

In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.

Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government.[10]

From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[11]

Following the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.

Exit poll

At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[12] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[13]

Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[14] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.

A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[13]

Graphical summaries

  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats

The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.

The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period 11 April – 6 May 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.

Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.

2010

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
2010 general election 6 May – 29.7% 36.9% 23.6% 9.8% 7.2%
Ipsos MORI Evening Standard 5 May 1,216 29% 36% 27% 8% 7%
YouGov The Sun 4–5 May 6,483 28% 35% 28%
9%
UKIP on 3%
BNP on 2%
Greens on 1%
SNP on 1%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 7%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] Daily Mail 4–5 May 4,014 29% 35% 27% 7% 6%
Populus Archived 25 July 2018 at the Wayback Machine The Times 4–5 May 2,505 28% 37% 27% 8% 9%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 4–5 May 2,283 24% 36% 29%
11%
UKIP on 4%
BNP on 2%
Greens on 1%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 2%
 7%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 4–5 May 1,383 27% 35% 26% 12% 8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 4–5 May 1,025 28% 37% 28% 7% 9%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 3–4 May 1,527 28% 36% 26% 10% 8%
YouGov The Sun 3–4 May 1,461 30% 35% 24% 11% 5%
TNS-BMRB N/A 29 Apr – 4 May 1,864 27% 33% 29% 11% 4%
Harris Interactive The Metro 28 Apr – 4 May 786 26% 36% 28% 10% 8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 2–3 May 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8%
YouGov The Sun 2–3 May 1,455 28% 35% 28% 9% 7%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 30 Apr – 3 May 1,870 28% 33% 27% 12% 5%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 1–2 May 1,475 28% 34% 29% 9% 5%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 1–2 May 1,024 29% 37% 26% 8% 8%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 30 Apr – 2 May 1,026 28% 33% 28% 12% 5%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Times 30 Apr – 1 May 1,483 27% 35% 28% 10% 7%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent
Sunday Mirror
 30 Apr – 1 May 1,019 28% 38% 25% 9% 10%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 30 Apr 1,412 28% 34% 28% 10% 6%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 30 Apr 1,019 29% 36% 27% 8% 7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion Sunday Express 29–30 Apr 1,874 23% 35% 29%
12%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 1%
SNP on 1%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 6%
29 Apr The third Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov The Sun 28–29 Apr 1,623 27% 34% 28% 11% 6%
YouGov The Sun 27–28 Apr 1,530 27% 34% 31% 8% 3%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 26–27 Apr 1,598 29% 33% 28% 10% 4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 26–27 Apr 1,006 29% 36% 26% 9% 7%
Populus The Times 26–27 Apr 1,510 27% 36% 28% 8% 8%
TNS-BMRB N/A 21–27 Apr 2,078 27% 34% 30% 9% 4%
YouGov The Sun 25–26 Apr 1,491 28% 33% 29% 10% 4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 25–26 Apr 1,005 29% 33% 29% 9% 4%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 23–26 Apr 1,942 25% 34% 28% 13% 6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion The Economist 23–26 Apr 2,433 23% 33% 30%
14%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 2%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 1%
PC on 1%
Other on 3%
 3%
Harris Interactive The Metro 20–26 Apr 1,678 25% 32% 30% 13% 2%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Apr 1,466 28% 34% 30% 8% 4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 24–25 Apr 1,003 28% 32% 31% 9% 1%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 23–25 Apr 1,031 28% 33% 30% 8% 3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 23–24 Apr 1,412 27% 35% 28% 9% 7%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
 23–24 Apr 1,006 28% 34% 29% 9% 5%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 23 Apr 1,020 26% 35% 31% 8% 4%
Ipsos MOR News of the World 23 Apr 1,245 30% 36% 23% 11% 6%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Apr 1,381 29% 34% 29% 8% 5%
22 Apr The second Prime Ministerial debate
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 21–22 Apr 1,576 29% 34% 28% 9% 5%
YouGov The Sun 20–21 Apr 1,545 27% 33% 31% 9% 2%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 19–20 Apr 1,595 26% 31% 34% 9% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 19–20 Apr 1,953 23% 32% 33%
12%
UKIP on 4%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 0%
 1%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 19–20 Apr 1,015 25% 35% 27% 13% 8%
Populus[permanent dead link‍] The Times 19–20 Apr 1,501 28% 32% 31% 9% 1%
Ipsos MORI Evening Standard 18–20 Apr 1,253 28% 32% 32% 8% Tie
TNS-BMRB N/A 14–20 Apr 1,953 29% 34% 30% 7% 4%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 18–19 Apr 1,012 26% 35% 26% 13% 9%
YouGov The Sun 18–19 Apr 1,509 27% 33% 31% 8% 2%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 16–19 Apr 1,957 26% 32% 29% 13% 3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–19 Apr 2,004 24% 32% 32%
12%
UKIP on 4%
BNP on 2%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 Tie
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 14–19 Apr 1,792 26% 31% 30% 13% 1%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 17–18 Apr 1,003 28% 32% 28% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Apr 1,433 26% 32% 33% 8% 1%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 16–18 Apr 1,024 28% 33% 30% 9% 3%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Times 16–17 Apr 1,490 30% 33% 29% 8% 3%
ComRes
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
 16–17 Apr 1,006 27% 31% 29% 13% 2%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 15–16 Apr 1,290 28% 33% 30% 9% 3%
ComRes ITV News 15 Apr 4,032 28% 35% 24% 13% 7%
15 Apr The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 14–15 Apr 1,033 29% 34% 27% 10% 5%
YouGov The Sun 14–15 Apr 1,490 31% 37% 22% 10% 6%
YouGov The Sun 13–14 Apr 1,578 32% 41% 18% 9% 9%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 12–13 Apr 1,001 29% 35% 21% 15% 6%
YouGov The Sun 12–13 Apr 1,583 31% 39% 20% 9% 8%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 8–13 Apr 1,523 27% 36% 23% 14% 9%
TNS-BMRB[permanent dead link‍] N/A 7–13 Apr 1,916 33% 36% 22% 9% 3%
Populus The Times 12 Apr 1,525 33% 36% 21% 9% 3%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 11–12 Apr 1,002 31% 36% 19% 14% 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 11–12 Apr 2,006 28% 38% 22%
13%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
10%
YouGov The Sun 11–12 Apr 1,493 33% 39% 20% 8% 6%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 9–12 Apr 1,825 31% 39% 17% 13% 8%
ComRes
Multiple
ITV News
The Independent
 10–11 Apr 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
YouGov The Sun 10–11 Apr 1,455 31% 37% 20% 12% 6%
ICM The Guardian 9–11 Apr 1,024 31% 37% 20% 11% 6%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Apr 1,431 32% 40% 18% 10% 8%
ComRes-
Multiple
The Independent on Sunday
Sunday Mirror
 9–10 Apr 1,001 32% 39% 16% 13% 7%
YouGov[permanent dead link‍] The Sun 8–9 Apr 1,527 30% 40% 20% 10% 10%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] Daily Mail 7–8 Apr 1,012 27% 37% 22% 14% 10%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Apr 1,626 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 7 Apr 1,032 30% 38% 21% 10% 8%
YouGov The Sun 6–7 Apr 1,484 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 6–7 Apr 2,193 26% 37% 22%
14%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 11%
Populus The Times 6 Apr 1,507 32% 39% 21% 8% 7%
YouGov The Sun 5–6 Apr 1,456 32% 40% 17% 11% 8%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 31 Mar – 6 Apr 2,080 28% 37% 20% 15% 9%
YouGov The Sun 4–5 Apr 1,620 31% 41% 18% 11% 10%
Opinium Daily Express 2–5 Apr 1,903 29% 39% 17% 15% 10%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 1–3 Apr 1,001 33% 37% 21% 9% 4%
YouGov The Sunday Times 1–2 Apr 1,503 29% 39% 20% 12% 10%
Angus Reid Public Opinion Sunday Express 31 Mar – 1 Apr 1,991 27% 38% 20%
15%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 3%
 11%
YouGov The Sun 31 Mar – 1 Apr 1,552 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 30–31 Mar 1,003 29% 38% 23% 10% 9%
YouGov The Sun 30–31 Mar 1,615 32% 38% 19% 11% 6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 30–31 Mar 2,013 28% 37% 22%
13%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 0%
Other on 1%
 9%
YouGov The Sun 29–30 Mar 1,681 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
TNS-BMRB N/A 24–30 Mar 1,819 33% 38% 19% 10% 5%
YouGov The Sun 28–29 Mar 1,614 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 26–29 Mar 1,780 28% 38% 18% 16% 10%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 23–29 Mar 1,133 27% 37% 19% 17% 10%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Mar 1,001 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 25–26 Mar 1,533 32% 37% 19% 13% 5%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] News of the World 24–25 Mar 1,003 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Mar 1,483 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Mar 1,554 34% 36% 17% 13% 2%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Mar 1,756 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 21–22 Mar 1,560 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
Ipsos MORI Daily Mirror 19–22 Mar 1,503 30% 35% 21% 14% 5%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 19–22 Mar 1,975 30% 37% 15% 18% 7%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 17–22 Mar 2,117 28% 35% 17% 20% 7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 18–19 Mar 1,547 31% 38% 19% 13% 7%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] News of the World 17–18 Mar 1,002 32% 38% 19% 10% 6%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Mar 1,671 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 16–17 Mar 1,676 32% 36% 20% 11% 4%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 15–16 Mar 2,003 26% 39% 21%
15%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 13%
YouGov The Sun 15–16 Mar 1,460 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 10–16 Mar 1,934 28% 36% 18% 18% 8%
YouGov The Sun 14–15 Mar 1,466 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 12–15 Mar 1,951 28% 39% 16% 17% 11%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 12–14 Mar 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 Mar 1,507 33% 37% 17% 12% 4%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 10–11 Mar 1,007 31% 38% 21% 10% 7%
YouGov The Sun 10–11 Mar 1,434 34% 37% 17% 12% 3%
YouGov The Sun 9–10 Mar 1,473 32% 37% 17% 14% 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Mar 2,003 26% 39% 18%
17%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 3%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 13%
YouGov The Sun 8–9 Mar 1,524 32% 36% 20% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Mar 1,747 34% 39% 16% 11% 5%
Opinium[permanent dead link‍] Daily Express 5–8 Mar 1,960 30% 37% 16% 16% 7%
Harris Interactive[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 3–8 Mar 1,498 29% 37% 18% 16% 8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 4–5 Mar 1,558 33% 38% 17% 12% 5%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] News of the World 3–4 Mar 1,005 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
YouGov The Sun 3–4 Mar 1,640 32% 38% 17% 13% 6%
YouGov The Sun 2–3 Mar 1,661 32% 38% 19% 12% 6%
TNS-BMRB N/A 25 Feb – 3 Mar 1,973 31% 39% 19% 11% 8%
YouGov The Sun 1–2 Mar 1,479 33% 38% 16% 13% 5%
YouGov The Sun 28 Feb – 1 Mar 1,505 32% 39% 17% 12% 7%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Feb 1,005 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 25–26 Feb 1,436 35% 37% 17% 11% 2%
YouGov The Sun 24–25 Feb 1,472 33% 39% 16% 12% 6%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Feb 1,473 32% 38% 19% 10% 6%
TNS-BMRB N/A 18–24 Feb 1,954 32% 36% 21% 12% 4%
YouGov The Sun 22–23 Feb 1,469 32% 38% 17% 12% 6%
YouGov The Sun 21–22 Feb 1,578 33% 39% 17% 12% 6%
Ipsos MORI The Daily Telegraph 19–22 Feb 1,533 32% 37% 19% 12% 5%
Harris Interative[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 16–22 Feb 918 30% 39% 22% 9% 9%
ICM The Guardian 19–21 Feb 1,004 30% 37% 20% 13% 7%
YouGov The Sunday Times 18–19 Feb 1,472 33% 39% 17% 11% 6%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–19 Feb 4,004 26% 38% 19%
16%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
12%
YouGov The Sun 17–18 Feb 1,558 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%
ComRes Theos 16–17 Feb 1,085 30% 38% 20% 11% 8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 16–17 Feb 2,002 26% 40% 18%
16%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 2%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 14%
YouGov The Sun 16–17 Feb 2,145 30% 39% 18% 13% 9%
ComRes The Independent 10–11 Feb 1,009 29% 40% 21% 10% 11%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Feb 2,002 25% 38% 20%
16%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 13%
Populus The Times 5–7 Feb 1,502 30% 40% 20% 11% 10%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 3–4 Feb 1,001 30% 39% 20% 11% 9%
ComRes The Independent 29–31 Jan 1,001 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
BPIX[15] Mail on Sunday 29–30 Jan 1,524 30% 39% 18% 13% 9%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–29 Jan 2,054 31% 38% 19% 12% 7%
YouGov The People 26–28 Jan 2,044 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
Ipsos MORI Daily Mirror 26–28 Jan 1,001 32% 40% 16% 12% 8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion PoliticalBetting.com 26–27 Jan 2,004 24% 40% 19%
16%
UKIP on 5%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 16%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 22–24 Jan 1,000 29% 40% 21% 10% 11%
ComRes Sunday Mirror 20–21 Jan 1,004 29% 38% 19% 14% 9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Jan 2,033 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 13–14 Jan 1,005 29% 42% 19% 10% 13%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link‍] PoliticalBetting.com 9–10 Jan 2,010 24% 40% 20% 17% 16%
Populus The Times 8–10 Jan 1,509 28% 41% 19% 12% 13%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 6–7 Jan 1,003 30% 40% 18% 12% 10%
YouGov The Sun 6–7 Jan 2,832 30% 42% 16% 12% 12%
YouGov The Sun 5–6 Jan 4,167 31% 40% 17% 12% 9%


2009

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 29–30 Dec 1,848 30% 40% 17% 12% 10%
ComRes The Independent 19–20 Dec 1,006 29% 38% 19% 14% 9%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 16–18 Dec 2,010 24% 40% 20%
15%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 3%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 1%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 16%
YouGov The People 15–17 Dec 2,052 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 11–13 Dec 1,009 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 11–13 Dec 1,017 26% 43% 20% 12% 17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Dec 2,044 31% 40% 16% 13% 9%
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent on Sunday 9–10 Dec 1,001 24% 41% 21% 14% 17%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 8–10 Dec 2,002 23% 40% 19%
19%
UKIP on 7%
BNP on 4%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 3%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 17%
Populus The Times 4–6 Dec 1,505 30% 38% 20% 12% 8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 3–4 Dec 2,095 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 2–3 Dec 1,001 29% 40% 19% 12% 11%
ComRes The Independent 27–29 Nov 1,003 27% 37% 20% 16% 10%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 Nov 2,004 29% 39% 19% 13% 10%
Angus Reid Strategies PoliticalBetting.com 20–23 Nov 2,004 22% 39% 21%
18%
UKIP on 6%
BNP on 5%
Greens on 3%
SNP on 2%
PC on 1%
Other on 1%
 17%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 13–15 Nov 1,006 31% 37% 17% 13% 6%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 13–15 Nov 1,010 29% 42% 19% 10% 13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 Nov 2,026 27% 41% 18% 14% 14%
12 Nov Glasgow North East by-election
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 Nov 1,007 25% 39% 17% 19% 14%
Populus The Times 6–8 Nov 1,504 29% 39% 18% 14% 10%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link‍] PoliticalBetting.com 4–6 Nov 2,000 24% 38% 20% 17% 14%
YouGov Channel 4 News 4–5 Nov 1,021 27% 41% 17% 16% 14%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 28–29 Oct 1,007 25% 42% 21% 13% 17%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Oct 2,024 28% 41% 16% 15% 13%
ComRes The Independent 23–25 Oct 1,004 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–23 Oct 1,314 27% 40% 19% 14% 13%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 16–18 Oct 1,002 27% 44% 18% 11% 17%
Ipsos MORI N/A 16–18 Oct 996 26% 43% 19% 11% 17%
Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link‍] PoliticalBetting.com 15–16 Oct 2,077 23% 40% 20% 15% 17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Oct 2,025 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 Oct 1,008 28% 40% 19% 13% 12%
Populus The Times 9–11 Oct 1,509 30% 40% 18% 12% 10%
YouGov The Sun 8–9 Oct 2,161 28% 42% 18% 12% 14%
YouGov Sky News 8–9 Oct 1,064 27% 44% 17% 12% 17%
ICM News of the World 7–9 Oct 1,008 26% 45% 18% 10% 19%
YouGov Sky News 7–8 Oct 1,074 31% 40% 18% 11% 9%
YouGov Sky News 6–7 Oct 1,039 29% 43% 17% 11% 14%
YouGov Sky News 5–6 Oct 1,223 28% 41% 18% 13% 13%
YouGov Sky News 4–5 Oct 1,102 27% 40% 20% 13% 13%
YouGov The People 3 Oct 2,027 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
YouGov Sky News 1–2 Oct 1,053 29% 41% 17% 13% 12%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 30 Sep – 1 Oct 1,022 28% 40% 19% 13% 12%
YouGov Sky News 30 Sep – 1 Oct 1,085 26% 40% 20% 15% 14%
YouGov Sky News 29–30 Sep 1,078 30% 37% 21% 12% 7%
YouGov Sky News 28–29 Sep 1,024 29% 40% 18% 13% 11%
YouGov Sky News 27–28 Sep 1,051 29% 39% 20% 13% 10%
Ipsos MORI N/A 25–27 Sep 1,003 24% 36% 25% 15% 11%
ComRes The Independent 25–27 Sep 1,003 23% 38% 23% 16% 15%
YouGov Sky News 24–25 Sep 1,059 24% 40% 21% 14% 16%
YouGov Sky News 23–24 Sep 1,057 25% 38% 23% 14% 13%
ICM News of the World 23–24 Sep 1,003 26% 40% 23% 11% 14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Sep 2,026 26% 39% 20% 15% 13%
YouGov Sky News 22–23 Sep 1,036 28% 38% 19% 15% 10%
YouGov Sky News 21–22 Sep 1,062 27% 39% 20% 13% 12%
YouGov Sky News 20–21 Sep 1,081 30% 39% 17% 14% 9%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 Sep 1,001 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
Populus The Times 11–13 Sep 1,506 27% 41% 18% 14% 14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Sep 2,009 27% 41% 17% 15% 14%
ComRes The Independent 4–6 Sep 1,005 24% 40% 21% 15% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 4–6 Sep 1,573 27% 40% 18% 15% 13%
YouGov The Sun 27–28 Aug 1,996 28% 42% 17% 14% 14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Aug 2,199 26% 42% 18% 14% 16%
Ipsos MORI N/A 21–23 Aug 1,013 26% 43% 17% 13% 17%
ICM The Guardian 21–23 Aug 1,004 25% 41% 19% 14% 16%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 19–20 Aug 1,013 24% 41% 18% 16% 17%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Aug 2,007 28% 42% 18% 13% 14%
ICM/Sunday Mirror Sunday Mirror 12–13 Aug 1,005 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–30 July 2,334 27% 41% 18% 15% 14%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 July 1,008 24% 42% 18% 16% 18%
23 July Norwich North by-election
YouGov The People 21–23 July 2,218 25% 40% 20% 16% 15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 July 1,012 24% 40% 18% 18% 16%
Populus The Times 17–19 July 1,504 26% 38% 20% 16% 12%
YouGov The Sunday Times 16–17 July 1,956 25% 42% 18% 15% 17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 15–16 July 1,010 23% 38% 22% 16% 15%
ICM The Guardian 10–11 July 1,000 27% 41% 20% 12% 14%
YouGov Fabian Society 1–3 July 2,001 26% 39% 19% 17% 13%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 June 1,007 25% 36% 19% 20% 11%
YouGov The People 24–26 June 2,017 24% 40% 17% 19% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 June 2,233 25% 38% 18% 19% 13%
Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link‍] N/A 19–21 June 1,004 21% 38% 19% 23% 17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 17–18 June 1,012 22% 39% 18% 21% 17%
Harris Interative[permanent dead link‍] The Metro 10–17 June 2,081 20% 35% 16% 29% 15%
Ipsos MORI UNISON 12–14 June 1,252 25% 39% 19% 17% 14%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 12–14 June 1,006 27% 39% 18% 15% 12%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 June 1,902 24% 40% 18% 19% 16%
Populus The Times 9–10 June 1,001 24% 36% 19% 21% 12%
8 June 2009 European Parliament election
ComRes The Independent 5–7 June 1,001 22% 38% 20% 20% 16%
5 June 2009 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 2–3 June 4,014 21% 37% 19% 23% 16%
ComRes The Independent 29–31 May 1,005 22% 30% 18% 30% 8%
Ipsos MORI 29–31 May 1,001 18% 40% 18% 24% 22%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 May 5,016 22% 39% 18% 21% 17%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 27–28 May 1,013 22% 40% 25% 13% 15%
Populus The Times 27–28 May 1,001 21% 41% 15% 23% 20%
Populus ITV News 19–20 May 1,000 27% 39% 17% 18% 12%
ICM The Guardian 15–17 May 1,002 28% 39% 20% 14% 11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 14–16 May 2,235 23% 39% 19% 19% 16%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 13–14 May 1,010 21% 40% 18% 21% 19%
YouGov The Sun 13–14 May 1,814 22% 41% 19% 18% 19%
Populus The Times 8–10 May 1,504 26% 39% 22% 13% 13%
BPIX[15] Mail on Sunday 8–9 May Unknown[15] 23% 45% 17% 15% 22%
YouGov The Sunday Times 7–8 May 2,209 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 April 1,003 26% 45% 17% 12% 19%
YouGov/Sunday People Sunday People 23–24 April 1,855 27% 45% 17% 12% 18%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–23 April 1,896 27% 45% 18% 10% 18%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 April 1,011 28% 41% 22% 9% 13%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 17–19 April 1,005 30% 40% 19% 11% 10%
Marketing Sciences The Sunday Telegraph 15–16 April 1,007 26% 43% 21% 10% 17%
Populus The Times 3–5 April 1,512 30% 43% 18% 9% 13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 3–4 April 2,125 34% 41% 16% 10% 7%
ComRes The Independent 27–29 March 1,002 28% 40% 18% 14% 12%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 25–26 March 1,003 31% 44% 18% 8% 13%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 March 2,104 31% 41% 17% 11% 10%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 18–19 March 1,002 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 13–15 March 1,004 30% 42% 20% 8% 12%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 March 1,007 32% 42% 14% 11% 10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 March 1,840 31% 41% 17% 11% 10%
Populus The Times 6–8 March 1,504 30% 42% 19% 9% 12%
ComRes The Independent 27 Feb – 1 Mar 1,006 28% 44% 17% 12% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–26 Feb 2,063 31% 41% 15% 12% 10%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 20–22 Feb 1,004 30% 42% 18% 10% 12%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 Feb 1,001 28% 48% 17% 7% 20%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 Feb 1,711 32% 44% 14% 10% 12%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 Feb 1,002 25% 41% 22% 12% 16%
Populus The Times 6–8 Feb 1,504 28% 42% 18% 12% 14%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 4–5 Feb 1,010 28% 40% 22% 10% 12%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Jan 2,338 32% 43% 16% 10% 11%
ICM The Guardian 23–25 Jan 1,003 32% 44% 16% 8% 12%
ComRes The Independent 21–22 Jan 1,012 28% 43% 16% 13% 15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 16–18 Jan 1,005 30% 44% 17% 9% 14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Jan 2,077 32% 45% 14% 9% 13%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 Jan 1,009 32% 41% 15% 12% 9%
Populus The Times 9–11 Jan 1,500 33% 43% 15% 9% 10%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 Jan 1,835 34% 41% 15% 10% 7%

2008

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
ComRes The Independent 19–21 Dec 1,000 34% 39% 16% 11% 5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 16–18 Dec 2,241 35% 42% 14% 9% 7%
Ipsos MORI N/A 12–14 Dec 1,000 35% 39% 15% 11% 4%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 12–14 Dec 1,003 33% 38% 19% 10% 5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 11–12 Dec 2,098 35% 41% 15% 10% 6%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 10–11 Dec 1,003 36% 37% 14% 12% 1%
Ipsos MORI N/A 10–11 Dec 1,007 36% 41% 11% 12% 5%
Populus The Times 5–7 Dec 1,505 35% 39% 17% 9% 4%
ComRes The Independent 28–30 Nov 1,005 36% 37% 17% 10% 1%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 27–28 Nov 1,017 32% 43% 15% 10% 11%
ICM The Guardian 25–26 Nov 1,027 30% 45% 18% 7% 15%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–25 Nov 1,556 36% 40% 14% 10% 4%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] Sunday Mirror 19–20 Nov 1,010 31% 42% 19% 8% 11%
Ipsos MORI N/A 14–16 Nov 1,002 37% 40% 12% 11% 3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Nov 2,080 36% 41% 14% 10% 5%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 12–13 Nov 1,010 32% 43% 12% 13% 11%
Populus The Times 7–9 Nov 1,503 35% 41% 16% 8% 6%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 5–6 Nov 1,005 30% 43% 18% 9% 13%
6 Nov Glenrothes by-election
BPIX[15] N/A 2 Nov ? 31% 45% 13% 11% 14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 Oct 2,271 33% 42% 15% 10% 9%
ComRes The Independent 24–26 Oct 1,001 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–19 Oct 1,004 30% 45% 14% 11% 15%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 17–19 Oct 1,007 30% 42% 21% 7% 12%
BPIX[15] N/A 16–18 Oct 2,046 30% 46% 13% 11% 16%
YouGov The Daily Mirror 15–17 Oct 2,029 34% 42% 14% 10% 8%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 15–16 Oct 1,005 31% 40% 16% 14% 9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Oct 1,941 33% 43% 14% 10% 10%
Populus The Times 3–5 Oct 1,503 30% 45% 15% 10% 15%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 1–3 Oct 2,048 31% 45% 15% 9% 14%
ComRes The Independent 26–28 Sep 1,017 29% 41% 18% 12% 12%
BPIX[15] N/A 24–26 Sep 2,020 31% 43% 17% 9% 12%
ICM The Guardian 24–25 Sep 1,012 32% 41% 18% 9% 9%
YouGov The Sun 23–24 Sep 1,536 31% 41% 16% 12% 10%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 17–18 Sep 1,010 27% 39% 21% 12% 12%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 17–19 Sep 2,227 24% 44% 20% 12% 20%
Ipsos MORI N/A 12–14 Sep 1,017 24% 52% 12% 12% 28%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–12 Sep 2,161 27% 46% 16% 11% 19%
ComRes The Independent 3–4 Sep 1,013 25% 44% 17% 14% 19%
Populus The Times 29–31 Aug 1,506 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–27 Aug 2,267 26% 45% 16% 13% 19%
ComRes The Independent 20–21 Aug 1,014 25% 46% 16% 13% 21%
ICM The Guardian 15–17 Aug 1,002 29% 44% 19% 8% 15%
Ipsos MORI N/A 15–17 Aug 1,005 24% 48% 16% 12% 24%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Aug 1,745 25% 45% 18% 12% 20%
YouGov News of the World 6–8 Aug 2,031 26% 46% 17% 11% 20%
BPIX[15] N/A 31 Jul – 2 Aug 1,333 24% 47% 16% 13% 23%
ICM Sunday Express 30 Jul – 1 Aug 1,001 29% 45% 16% 10% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 29–31 July 1,949 25% 47% 16% 12% 22%
Populus The Times 25–27 July 1,002 27% 43% 18% 12% 16%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 July 2,120 26% 45% 17% 12% 19%
ComRes The Independent 23–24 July 1,021 24% 46% 18% 12% 22%
24 July Glasgow East by-election
Ipsos MORI N/A 18–20 July 1,016 27% 47% 15% 11% 20%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 18–20 July 1,007 28% 43% 19% 10% 15%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 16–17 July 1,016 24% 45% 16% 15% 21%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 July 1,832 25% 47% 16% 12% 22%
Populus The Times 4–6 July 1,507 28% 41% 19% 12% 13%
ComRes The Independent 25–26 June 1,007 25% 46% 18% 11% 21%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 June 2,163 28% 46% 15% 11% 18%
26 June Henley by-election
ICM The Guardian 20–22 June 1,000 25% 45% 20% 10% 20%
BPIX[15] N/A 18–20 June 2,385 26% 49% 14% 11% 23%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–15 June 1,012 28% 45% 16% 11% 17%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 11–12 June 1,012 26% 44% 17% 13% 18%
YouGov The Sunday Times 12–13 June 1,769 25% 47% 18% 10% 22%
Populus The Times 6–8 June 1,508 25% 45% 20% 10% 20%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 4–5 June 1,023 26% 42% 21% 11% 16%
ComRes The Independent 30 May – 1 June 1,006 30% 44% 16% 10% 14%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 27–29 May 2,241 23% 47% 18% 12% 24%
22 May Crewe and Nantwich by-election
ICM The Guardian 16–18 May 1,008 27% 41% 22% 10% 14%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 May 1,854 25% 45% 18% 12% 20%
ComRes The Independent on Sunday 14–15 May 1,004 26% 43% 19% 12% 17%
YouGov The Sun 7–8 May 1,571 23% 49% 17% 11% 26%
Populus The Times 2–4 May 1,509 29% 40% 19% 11% 11%
1 May 2008 United Kingdom local elections
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 25–27 Apr 1,005 26% 40% 20% 14% 14%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 23–24 Apr 1,010 29% 39% 20% 12% 10%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 Apr 2,073 26% 44% 17% 13% 18%
Ipsos-MORI The Observer 17–22 Apr 1,059 31% 40% 19% 10% 9%
ICM/The Gurdian N/A 18–20 Apr 1,000 34% 39% 19% 8% 5%
Populus Sunday Mirror 16–17 Apr 1,006 30% 40% 19% 11% 10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Apr 1,755 28% 44% 17% 11% 16%
Populus The Times 8–10 Apr 1,502 33% 39% 17% 6% 6%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 2–3 Apr 1,010 32% 43% 18% 7% 11%
ComRes The Independent 28–30 Mar 1,004 31% 38% 17% 14% 7%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Mar 1,926 29% 43% 17% 11% 14%
Ipsos MORI N/A 13–18 Mar 1,983 35% 40% 18% 7% 5%
ICM The Guardian 14–16 Mar 1,003 29% 42% 21% 8% 13%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Mar 2,311 27% 43% 16% 13% 16%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] News of the World 12–13 Mar 1,002 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
Populus The Times 7–9 Mar 1,502 34% 37% 19% 10% 3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 25–27 Feb 2,011 33% 40% 16% 11% 7%
Ipsos MORI N/A 21–26 Feb 2,063 37% 39% 16% 8% 2%
ComRes The Independent 22–24 Feb 1,010 30% 41% 17% 12% 11%
YouGov/The Economist The Economist 18–20 Feb 2,118 34% 40% 16% 11% 6%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 15–17 Feb 1,003 34% 37% 21% 8% 3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 Feb 2,469 32% 41% 16% 11% 9%
Populus The Times 1–3 Feb 1,504 31% 40% 17% 12% 9%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 30–31 Jan 1,012 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
ComRes The Independent 25–27 Jan 1,003 30% 38% 17% 15% 8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 Jan 1,992 33% 41% 16% 10% 8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 17–22 Jan 2,045 38% 37% 16% 9% 1%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 Jan 1,009 35% 37% 20% 8% 2%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 Jan 2,139 33% 43% 14% 11% 10%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 9–10 Jan 1,011 33% 40% 18% 9% 7%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 9–10 Jan 1,006 32% 42% 15% 11% 10%
Populus The Times 4–6 Jan 1,509 33% 37% 19% 11% 4%

2007

Pollster Client Date(s)
Conducted 		Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 18–19 Dec 1,034 34% 39% 18% 9% 5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 17–19 Dec 2,060 31% 43% 16% 11% 12%
18 Dec Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 14–16 Dec 1,004 30% 41% 16% 12% 11%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Dec 1,481 32% 45% 14% 10% 13%
Populus The Times 7–9 Dec 1,506 32% 40% 16% 11% 8%
Ipsos MORI N/A 29 Nov – 7 Dec 1,859 35% 42% 14% 9% 7%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] News of the World 28–29 Nov 1,011 30% 41% 19% 10% 11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–29 Nov 4,004 32% 43% 14% 11% 11%
Ipsos MORI N/A 23–27 Nov 1,933 32% 41% 17% 10% 9%
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 23–25 Nov 1,009 27% 41% 18% 15% 13%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 21–22 Nov 1,005 31% 37% 21% 10% 6%
YouGov Channel 4 News 21–22 Nov 1,600 32% 41% 14% 13% 9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–16 Nov 1,983 35% 41% 13% 11% 6%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] Sunday Express 8–10 Nov 1,001 35% 43% 15% 7% 8%
Populus The Times 2–4 Nov 1,503 37% 36% 16% 11% 1%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 31 Oct – 1 Nov 1,013 35% 40% 13% 12% 5%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Guardian 26–28 Oct 1,011 35% 40% 18% 7% 5%
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 26–28 Oct 1,002 33% 42% 15% 10% 8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Oct 2,105 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 18–23 Oct 1,987 41% 40% 13% 6% 1%
ICM[permanent dead link‍] The Sunday Telegraph 10–11 Oct 1,010 36% 43% 14% 8% 7%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 10 Oct 1,007 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 5–6 Oct 1,757 38% 41% 11% 10% 3%
Populus The Times 5–7 Oct 1,008 40% 38% 12% 10% 2%
YouGov Channel 4 News 3–4 Oct 1,741 40% 36% 13% 11% 4%
ICM The Guardian 3–4 Oct 1,008 38% 38% 16% 8% Tie
Populus The Times 2–3 Oct 1,000 39% 36% 15% 10% 3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–28 Sep 2,165 43% 32% 15% 10% 11%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 27–28 Sep 1,000 41% 34% 16% 9% 7%
Populus The Times 26–27 Sep 1,002 41% 31% 17% 10% 10%
Ipsos MORI N/A 20–26 Sep 1,964 44% 31% 15% 10% 13%
YouGov Channel 4 News 24–25 Sep 1,341 44% 33% 13% 11% 11%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 20–22 Sep 1,009 42% 34% 14% 10% 8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 19–21 Sep 2,085 39% 33% 16% 12% 6%
ICM Sunday Mirror 19–20 Sep 1,029 39% 33% 19% 9% 6%
ICM The Guardian 13–16 Sep 1,005 40% 32% 20% 8% 8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 13–14 Sep 1,942 39% 34% 15% 12% 5%
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 11–12 Sep 1,005 37% 34% 15% 14% 3%
Populus The Times 31 Aug – 2 Sep 1,506 37% 36% 18% 9% 1%
YouGov GMTV 29–31 Aug 2,154 38% 35% 15% 12% 3%
ComRes[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 29–30 Aug 1,016 35% 36% 14% 14% 1%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 23–29 Aug 1,941 41% 36% 16% 7% 5%
Populus Conservative Party 25–28 Aug 530 37% 36% 16% 10% 1%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 24–28 Aug 2,266 41% 33% 14% 12% 8%
ICM The Guardian 22–23 Aug 1,016 39% 34% 18% 9% 5%
YouGov The Sunday Times 9–10 Aug 1,966 42% 32% 14% 12% 10%
ICM Sunday Mirror 8–10 Aug 1,007 39% 33% 18% 10% 6%
Ipsos MORI The Sun 8–9 Aug 531 38% 33% 15% 14% 5%
Populus The Times 27–29 July 1,511 39% 33% 15% 13% 6%
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 27–29 July 1,006 37% 34% 16% 14% 3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 July 1,877 41% 32% 16% 11% 9%
ICM The Guardian 20–22 July 1,005 38% 32% 20% 10% 6%
YouGov The Sunday Times 19–20 July 1,664 40% 33% 15% 12% 7%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 12–17 July 1,919 41% 35% 15% 9% 6%
ICM Sunday Mirror 4–5 July 1,006 37% 35% 17% 10% 2%
Populus The Times 1 July 1,504 37% 34% 18% 11% 3%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 28–29 June 1,886 38% 35% 15% 12% 3%
ICM The Guardian 27–28 June 1,005 39% 35% 18% 8% 4%
27 June Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 22–24 June 1,005 32% 37% 18% 13% 5%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 14–20 June 1,970 39% 36% 15% 10% 3%
YouGov The Sunday Times 14–15 June 1,753 35% 37% 14% 14% 2%
Populus N/A 1–3 June 1,503 33% 36% 17% 14% 3%
ICM The Sunday Telegraph 30–31 May 1,014 32% 37% 21% 10% 5%
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] The Independent 25–28 May 1,003 31% 35% 19% 15% 4%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–23 May 2,050 33% 39% 15% 13% 6%
ICM The Guardian 18–20 May 1,003 32% 34% 21% 12% 2%
Populus The Times 11–13 May 1,504 33% 37% 17% 13% 4%
YouGov The Sunday Times 10–11 May 1,962 34% 38% 15% 14% 4%
3 May 2007 United Kingdom local elections
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 23–25 Apr 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5%
Ipsos MORI The Observer 19–25 Apr 1,163 31% 38% 20% 11% 7%
ICM The Guardian 20–22 Apr 1,005 30% 37% 21% 12% 7%
Populus The Times 13–15 Apr 1,503 29% 37% 20% 14% 8%
YouGov The Sunday Times 4–5 Apr 2,218 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 26–28 Mar 2,042 32% 39% 17% 13% 7%
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] N/A 23–25 Mar 1,002 31% 35% 20% 14% 4%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 21–22 Mar 2,752 31% 39% 16% 14% 8%
ICM The Guardian 16–18 Mar 1,011 31% 41% 18% 10% 10%
YouGov The Sunday Times 15–16 Mar 1,897 32% 38% 16% 14% 6%
Ipsos MORI N/A 9–15 Mar 1,983 33% 41% 17% 9% 8%
Populus The Times 2–4 Mar 1,509 30% 38% 18% 14% 8%
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] N/A 23–25 Feb 1,001 29% 40% 17% 14% 11%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 19–21 Feb 2,292 32% 37% 17% 14% 5%
ICM The Guardian 16–18 Feb 1,000 31% 40% 19% 10% 9%
YouGov The Sunday Times 8–9 Feb 2,019 32% 37% 18% 14% 5%
Populus The Times 2–4 Feb 1,509 33% 36% 19% 12% 3%
Ipsos MORI N/A 19–29 Jan 949 35% 39% 19% 7% 4%
Communicate[permanent dead link‍] N/A 26–28 Jan 1,008 29% 34% 21% 16% 5%
YouGov The Daily Telegraph 22–24 Jan 2,245 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
ICM The Guardian 19–21 Jan 1,004 31% 37% 23% 9% 6%
Populus The Times 5–7 Jan 1,507 32% 39% 18% 11% 7%

2006

Date(s)
Conducted 		Polling Organisation / Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
20–22 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 1,918 32% 37% 15% 15% 5%
18–20 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,874 33% 37% 17% 13% 4%
19–20 Dec Communicate 1,009 37% 36% 14% 14% 1%
15–17 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 40% 18% 10% 8%
9–12 Dec Ipsos MORI 1,938 36% 37% 18% 9% 1%
8–10 Dec Populus/The Times 1,513 33% 34% 19% 14% 1%
28–30 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,979 32% 37% 16% 15% 5%
29–30 Nov ICM/News of the World 1,006 31% 39% 20% 10% 8%
24–26 Nov Communicate 1,004 36% 34% 17% 12% 2%
17–19 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,000 32% 37% 22% 9% 5%
9–14 Nov Ipsos MORI 1,115 33% 35% 20% 12% 2%
3–5 Nov Populus/The Times 1,510 33% 36% 20% 11% 3%
24–26 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,722 32% 39% 16% 13% 7%
20–22 Oct Communicate 977 32% 38% 14% 15% 6%
20–22 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,019 29% 39% 22% 9% 10%
12–16 Oct Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,113 37% 35% 18% 10% 2%
6–8 Oct Populus/The Times 1,515 35% 36% 18% 11% 1%
4–5 Oct ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,005 32% 38% 20% 10% 6%
28–30 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,029 35% 36% 19% 11% 1%
27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,849 36% 36% 16% 12% Tie
21–22 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,546 33% 37% 18% 12% 4%
19–22 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,733 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
19–20 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,066 32% 36% 22% 10% 4%
13–14 Sep ICM/Sunday Mirror 1,003 33% 37% 21% 8% 4%
13–14 Sep YouGov/The Sun 1,519 31% 38% 18% 14% 7%
6–7 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,504 32% 40% 17% 11% 8%
31 Aug – 6 Sep Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times 1,186 36% 35% 19% 10% 1%
1–3 Sep Populus/The Times 1,504 32% 36% 20% 13% 4%
22–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,757 31% 38% 18% 13% 7%
18–20 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,007 31% 40% 22% 8% 9%
24–26 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,633 33% 38% 18% 11% 5%
20–24 July Ipsos MORI 1,897 32% 36% 24% 8% 4%
21–23 July ICM/The Guardian 1,001 35% 39% 17% 9% 4%
7–9 July Populus/The Times 1,512 34% 36% 19% 11% 2%
29 June By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst
28–29 June ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 35% 36% 18% 11% 1%
26–28 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,962 33% 39% 18% 10% 6%
22–26 June Ipsos MORI 1,931 33% 36% 21% 10% 3%
21–23 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,009 32% 39% 17% 12% 7%
16–18 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 32% 37% 21% 9% 5%
8–12 June Ipsos MORI/The Observer 1,975 34% 41% 18% 7% 7%
2–4 June Populus/The Times 1,505 34% 37% 18% 11% 3%
25–30 May Ipsos MORI 1,984 31% 41% 18% 10% 10%
23–25 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,102 32% 38% 16% 14% 6%
19–21 May ICM/The Guardian 1,001 34% 38% 20% 8% 4%
8–9 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,910 31% 37% 17% 15% 6%
5–7 May Populus/The Times 1,516 30% 38% 20% 11% 8%
4 May 2006 United Kingdom local elections
27 Apr – 2 May Ipsos MORI/Financial Times 1,078 32% 36% 21% 11% 4%
27–28 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,930 32% 35% 18% 15% 3%
21–23 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,006 32% 34% 24% 10% 2%
20–22 Apr Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,006 30% 30% 25% 15% Tie
18–20 Apr YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,075 35% 33% 17% 15% 2%
31 Mar – 2 Apr Populus/The Times 1,503 36% 34% 21% 10% 2%
27–29 Mar YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,873 36% 36% 18% 10% Tie
16–21 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,155 39% 34% 19% 8% 5%
16–18 Mar ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,003 37% 33% 21% 9% 4%
16–17 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,811 35% 38% 19% 8% 3%
10–12 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,006 37% 34% 21% 8% 3%
3–5 Mar Populus/The Times 1,509 35% 35% 20% 9% Tie
2 Mar Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats
21–22 Feb YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,019 36% 38% 18% 9% 2%
16–20 Feb Ipsos MORI/The Sun 1,143 38% 35% 20% 7% 3%
17–19 Feb ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link‍] 1,002 34% 37% 21% 8% 3%
9–10 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,617 39% 37% 15% 10% 2%
9 Feb Dunfermline and West Fife by-election
3–5 Feb Populus/The Times 1,508 36% 37% 18% 9% 1%
24–26 Jan YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,096 40% 39% 13% 9% 1%
19–23 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,163 38% 40% 17% 5% 2%
20–22 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,009 36% 37% 19% 7% 1%
12–17 Jan Ipsos MORI/The Sun 541 39% 39% 15% 7% Tie
6–8 Jan Populus/The Times 1,509 39% 36% 16% 9% 3%

2005

Date(s)
Conducted 		Polling Organisation / Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
15–18 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,004 36% 37% 21% 7% 1%
13–15 Dec YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,071 36% 38% 18% 8% 2%
9–12 Dec MORI/The Observer 1,000 31% 40% 20% 9% 9%
9–11 Dec Populus/The Times 1,521 38% 35% 19% 8% 3%
6–8 Dec YouGov/Sunday Times 2,089 36% 37% 18% 8% 1%
7–8 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 35% 37% 21% 7% 2%
6 Dec David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party
5–6 Dec YouGov/Sky News 1,612 36% 36% 18% 10% Tie
22–24 Nov YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,616 37% 35% 20% 8% 2%
17–22 Nov MORI 1,089 42% 32% 19% 7% 10%
18–20 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,013 38% 33% 19% 10% 5%
4–6 Nov Populus/The Times 1,512 40% 32% 19% 9% 8%
2–3 Nov ICM/Sunday Telegraph 1,010 39% 33% 21% 7% 6%
25–27 Oct YouGov/Daily Telegraph 1,947 40% 32% 19% 9% 8%
20–25 Oct MORI 1,904 40% 34% 21% 5% 6%
19–20 Oct ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link‍] 1,007 36% 33% 22% 8% 3%
7–9 Oct Populus/The Times 1,509 40% 30% 21% 9% 10%
5–6 Oct ICM/News of the World 1,015 38% 32% 22% 8% 5%
27–29 Sep YouGov/Daily Telegraph 2,183 40% 32% 20% 9% 8%
22–26 Sep MORI 1,132 39% 29% 25% 7% 10%
16–17 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,013 40% 31% 21% 8% 9%
8–9 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,856 37% 32% 21% 10% 5%
2–4 Sep Populus/The Times 1,506 37% 35% 20% 8% 2%
19–24 Aug YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 40% 33% 20% 7% 7%
11–15 Aug MORI 1,191 39% 31% 24% 6% 8%
12–14 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,006 38% 31% 22% 9% 7%
26–28 July YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 40% 31% 21% 8% 9%
22–24 July Populus/The Times 1,506 40% 28% 22% 10% 12%
14–18 July MORI/The Observer 1,227 41% 28% 25% 6% 13%
15–17 July ICM/The Guardian 1,005 39% 31% 23% 7% 8%
28–30 June YouGov/Daily Telegraph 3,717 38% 33% 20% 9% 5%
16–20 June MORI 1,227 42% 29% 21% 8% 13%
17–19 June ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 31% 23% 8% 7%
24–26 May YouGov/Daily Telegraph – 38% 31% 23% 8% 7%
19–23 May MORI/Financial Times 1,274 37% 30% 26% 7% 7%
5 May 2005 general election – 36.2% 33.2% 22.7% 7.9% 3%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (7 October 2007). "Gordon Brown: Why I put off an early election". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  2. ^ Sylvester, Rachel (22 April 2015). "What if... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007?". Prospect Magazine. Archived from the original on 6 March 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
  3. ^ Wintour, Patrick (8 June 2009). "European elections: Labour suffers long, dark night of humiliation". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 8 December 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
  4. ^ Wyburn-Powell, Alun (11 June 2014). "The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year's General Election" (PDF). Democratic Audit UK. London School of Economics. Archived (PDF) from the original on 5 July 2022. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  5. ^ "Predicting Results". UK Polling Report. Archived from the original on 21 December 2010. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  6. ^ Baston, Lewis (18 April 2010). "Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 6 March 2016. Retrieved 4 December 2016.
  7. ^ Barone, Michael (19 April 2010). "The Lib Dems surge in Britain". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  8. ^ "Rivals target Lib Dem policies". BBC. 19 April 2010. Archived from the original on 24 December 2023. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  9. ^ Wells, Anthony (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Archived from the original on 18 January 2012. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
  10. ^ Wells, Anthony (29 January 2010). "YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points". UK Polling Report. Archived from the original on 3 February 2010. Retrieved 23 May 2010.
  11. ^ Editorial (20 April 2010). "General election 2010: All change for new politics". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 23 November 2020. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
  12. ^ "Exit poll: Tories to fall 19 short of majority". BBC. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 17 August 2012. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
  13. ^ a b "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 13 March 2012. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
  14. ^ "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 22 August 2019. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.