Opinion polling for the 2005 United Kingdom general election

In the run up to the general election of 2005, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 5 May 2005. The previous general election was held on 7 June 2001.

Details of opinion polling

Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.

Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and Feb 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.

That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1]

Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.

Election battleground

The 2001 general election, which had the lowest turnout of any general election for more than 80 years, saw the Labour government of Tony Blair re-elected with a second successive landslide majority, which left the political landscape almost completely unchanged. William Hague resigned as leader of a Conservative opposition which failed to make any real progress from its heavy defeat in 1997, and was succeeded by Iain Duncan Smith.

The Labour government remained ascendant in the opinion polls, but its popularity began to suffer from Mar 2003 as a result of Tony Blair's decision to send British forces to collaborate with the American forces in their invasion of Iraq, which led to the end of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, as well as his eventual capture, trial and execution by a new democratic Iraqi government. However, there was a public outcry that the invasion of Iraq failed to uncover weapons of mass destruction which had long been believed to exist in Iraq. By the summer of 2003, several opinion polls were showing a narrow Conservative lead for the first time since the fuel protests of 2000, and the Liberal Democrats were also shown to be enjoying a surge in support, largely seen to be the result of Charles Kennedy's anti-war stance.

However, opinion polls showed that Iain Duncan Smith was not a popular choice with voters as a potential prime minister, and there was also the fact that Labour still had a huge parliamentary majority, while the Tories would have to almost double their share of seats in parliament to form a majority. Duncan Smith was ousted as leader in Nov 2003 following a vote of no confidence by his own party, was succeeded uncontested by the former Home Secretary Michael Howard, who helped the Tories keep close behind Labour in the opinion polls and oversaw strong showings in the local council and European parliament by-elections of 2004.

A general election was called for 5 May 2005, with Labour winning for a third successive time, but its majority dropped from 160 seats to 66 seats, with both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats enjoying substantial gains.

Tony Blair had already decided that the 2005 general election would be the last he would contest as Labour Party leader if re-election was achieved. Michael Howard announced his resignation shortly afterwards, feeling that he was too old to lead the party into the next general election (knowing that it was unlikely to be held until he was almost 70 years old), and Charles Kennedy stepped down eight months later following revelations about his personal life.

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was undertaken, as opposed to the date of publication.

The figure given in the 'lead' column is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties.

2005

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
2005 general election		5 May	–	36.2%	33.2%	22.7%	7.9%	3.0%
Ipsos MORI	Evening Standard	3–4 May	1,164	38%	33%	23%	6%	5%
Populus	The Times	2–3 May	1,174	38%	32%	21%	8%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	1–3 May	1,178	38%	32%	22%	8%	6%
Populus	The Times	29 Apr – 2 May	866	41%	27%	23%	9%	14%
Populus	The Times	27–30 Apr	863	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
Populus	The Times	25–28 Apr	853	40%	31%	22%	7%	9%
Populus	The Times	24–27 Apr	841	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	24–26 Apr	1,209	40%	32%	21%	5%	8%
Populus	The Times	23–26 Apr	835	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
Populus	The Times	22–25 Apr	831	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
Populus	The Times	21–24 Apr	819	41%	33%	19%	7%	8%
Populus	The Times	20–23 Apr	798	41%	32%	20%	7%	9%
Populus Online	The Times Online	19–22 Apr	798	41%	33%	20%	6%	8%
Populus	The Times	18–21 Apr	806	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
Populus	The Times	17–20 Apr	836	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 Apr	1,163	39%	33%	22%	7%	6%
Populus	The Times	16–19 Apr	863	39%	33%	21%	7%	6%
Populus	The Times	14–17 Apr	586	40%	31%	21%	8%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	10–12 Apr	1,169	39%	33%	22%	7%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	1–3 Apr	973	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
Populus	The Times	1–3 Apr	812	37%	35%	19%	9%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Mar	716	40%	32%	20%	7%	8%
Populus	The Times	4–6 Mar	831	39%	32%	20%	9%	7%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Feb	1,013[2]	37%	34%	21%	8%	3%
Populus	The Times	4–6 Feb	814	41%	32%	18%	9%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	21–23 Jan	1,000[2]	38%	31%	21%	9%	6%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Jan	848	38%	33%	20%	9%	5%

2004

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ICM	The Guardian	16–19 Dec	1,002[2]	40%	31%	21%	7%	9%
Populus	The Times	3–5 Dec	826	37%	33%	20%	10%	4%
ICM	The Guardian	12–14 Nov	830	38%	30%	22%	10%	8%
ICM	The Guardian	22–24 Oct	1,011	37%	31%	23%	9%	6%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	21–23 Sep	2,033	36%	34%	21%	9%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 Sep	1,005	36%	32%	22%	10%	4%
Populus	The Times	2–5 Sep	608	31%	30%	26%	13%	1%
ICM	The Guardian	13–15 Aug	1,005	36%	33%	22%	9%	3%
Populus	The Times	30 Jul – 1 Aug	570	32%	32%	24%	12%	Tie
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Jul	1,007	35%	30%	25%	10%	5%
Populus	The Times	2–3 Jul	556	33%	29%	24%	14%	4%
Ipsos MORI	Financial Times	18–20 Jun	966	32%	27%	22%	19%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	11–13 Jun	1,009	34%	31%	22%	13%	3%
		10 Jun	2004 European election
Populus	The Times	4–6 Jun	589	31%	29%	22%	18%	3%
ICM	The Guardian	20–23 May	1,001	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
Populus	The Times	7–9 May	578	32%	36%	22%	10%	4%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Apr	1,002	38%	33%	22%	6%	5%
ICM	The Guardian	10–11 Mar	1,014	37%	35%	21%	7%	2%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Mar	573	36%	34%	22%	8%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 Feb	1,006	36%	34%	21%	8%	2%
Populus	The Times	6–8 Feb	580	36%	31%	25%	8%	5%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Jan	1,007	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
Populus	The Times	2–4 Jan	566	40%	35%	18%	7%	5%

2003

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ICM[3]	The Guardian	12–14 Dec	1,001	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Dec	557	35%	33%	22%	10%	2%
ICM[3]	The Guardian	14–16 Nov	1,002	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Nov	554	35%	31%	24%	10%	4%
		6 Nov	Michael Howard elected Conservative Party leader
ICM[3]	The Guardian	17–19 Oct	1,004	38%	33%	21%	8%	5%
Populus	The Times	3–5 Oct	524	36%	28%	27%	9%	8%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	23–25 Sep	2,306	31%	32%	30%	7%	1%
ICM	The Guardian	19–21 Sep	1,002	35%	30%	28%	8%	5%
Populus	The Times	5–6 Sep	511	37%	35%	20%	8%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 Aug	1,001	37%	32%	22%	9%	5%
Populus	The Times	1–3 Aug	564	35%	33%	25%	7%	2%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–24 Jul	2,219	34%	37%	22%	7%	3%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Jul	1,003	36%	34%	22%	9%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 Jun	1,001	38%	34%	21%	7%	4%
Populus	The Times	13–15 Jun	513	36%	34%	21%	9%	2%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 May	1,000	42%	29%	21%	8%	13%
Populus	The Times	2–4 Mar	565	35%	34%	23%	8%	1%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	22–24 Apr	2,390	40%	32%	21%	7%	8%
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 Apr	1,000	42%	30%	21%	7%	12%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	26–27 Mar	2,282	40%	33%	20%	7%	7%
Populus	The Times	10–12 Mar	540	42%	29%	22%	7%	13%
ICM	The Guardian	14–16 Mar	1,002	38%	32%	24%	6%	6%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Mar	498	34%	34%	24%	8%	Tie
ICM	The Guardian	14–16 Feb	1,003	39%	31%	22%	8%	8%
Populus	The Times	7–9 Feb	555	35%	34%	25%	6%	1%
YouGov	The Daily Telegraph	28–30 Jan	1,949	36%	32%	24%	8%	4%
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 Jan	1,002	43%	30%	21%	6%	13%
Populus	The Times	3–5 Jan	565	38%	31%	25%	6%	7%

2002

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ICM	The Guardian	13–15 Dec	1,006	41%	27%	23%	8%	14%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 Nov	1,000	42%	29%	22%	7%	13%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Oct	1,001	43%	32%	20%	6%	11%
Populus	The Times	11–13 Oct	1,001	42%	30%	21%	6%	12%
ICM	The Guardian	20–22 Sep	1,000	39%	34%	20%	7%	5%
Populus	The Times	5–7 Sep	610	39%	33%	21%	6%	6%
ICM	The Guardian	23–25 Aug	1,003	41%	32%	21%	6%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	26–27 Jul	1,002	42%	33%	20%	4%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	21–23 Jun	1,002	42%	32%	20%	7%	10%
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 May	1,003	42%	34%	19%	5%	8%
ICM	The Guardian	20–21 Apr	1,000	45%	29%	18%	8%	16%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 Mar	1,001	43%	34%	17%	6%	9%
ICM	The Guardian	15–17 Feb	1,003	47%	30%	18%	5%	17%
ICM	The Guardian	18–20 Jan	1,003	45%	30%	19%	6%	15%

2001

Pollster	Client	Dates conducted	Sample size	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
ICM	The Guardian	14–16 Dec	1,000	44%	29%	20%	7%	15%
ICM	The Guardian	16–18 Nov	1,004	46%	29%	19%	6%	17%
ICM	The Guardian	19–20 Oct	1,000	47%	29%	19%	5%	18%
ICM	The Guardian	14–16 Sep	1,007	46%	29%	20%	5%	17%
		13 Sep	Iain Duncan Smith elected Conservative Party leader
ICM	The Guardian	17–19 Aug	1,004	46%	30%	17%	7%	16%
ICM	The Guardian	13–14 Jul	1,001	46%	30%	18%	6%	16%
2001 general election		7 Jun	–	42.0%	32.7%	18.8%	6.5%	9.3%

References

1. Predicting Results UK Polling Report
2. The number of responses used to calculate the voting intention was not provided; the total number of participants in the poll is therefore listed.
3. The responses to the questions on voting intention are not included in this document; they have therefore instead been taken from Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984.

External links

• Guardian/ICM polls: every one since 1984