Abstract. ARIMA models as the population forecasting in Situbondo is a model of ARIMA(3, 3, 3) and mathematically, it is stated as; =2,445â1,6632â0,148+0,9732â1,0746+ 0,4676+â 1,0635. Forecasting the population in Situbondo is 667646 people in 2012 and in 2013 is 677852 people. Some other approaches in determining the population is the Arithmetic growth formula, the result of forecasting in 2012 is 657540 people and in 2013 is 661626 people, Based on Geometric growth formula, the result of forecasting in 2012 is 19696459 people and in 2013 is 35211214 people and Based on Exponential growth formula the result of forecasting in 2012 is 657611 people and in 2013 is 661799 people. If we compare the data of the forecasted result of ARIMA model with the Aritmatics growth formula and Exponential growth formula, show that the data of the population with the last ten actual data is relatively similiar.The closed last ten actual data forecasting of population is the aritmatics growth formula, whereas the data of the population result for next two year based on the Geometric growth formula got the forecasted result which is different from the forecasted result of ARIMA model, Aritmatics growth formula and Exponential growth formula. Key Words:forecasting, arima models, arithmetic, geometric, exponential
| Published by | Universitas Jember |
| Journal Name | KADIKMA |
| Contact Phone | +628991400004 |
| Contact Name | Dhanar Dwi Hary Jatmiko |
| Contact Email | dhanardwi@unej.ac.id |
| Location | Kab. jember, Jawa timur INDONESIA |
| Website | kadikma| https://jurnal.unej.ac.id/index.php/kadikma| |
| ISSN | ISSN : 20850662, EISSN : 26863243, DOI : -, |
| Core Subject | Education, |
| Meta Subject | Mathematics, |
| Meta Desc | KadikmA (p-ISSN: 2085-0662 dan e-ISSN: 2686-3243) adalah jurnal nasional bidang Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika yang diterbitkan oleh Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, FKIP, Universitas Jember. Kadikma terbit 3 kali dalam setahun pada bulan April, Agustus dan Desember. Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (Kadikma) berfokus pada penelitian matematika murni, matematika terapan, dan pendidikan matematika melalui artikel yang relevan. Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (Kadikma) menyambut baik setiap artikel tentang penelitian matematika murni, penelitian matematika terapan, penelitian pendidikan matematika di dalam kelas yang relevan, mengevaluasi dan melaporkan praktik pendidikan guru dalam pembelajaran matematika, meninjau masalah topikal dan melaporkan keberhasilan dalam pendidikan matematika. |
| Penulis | As’ad, A , Tirta, I Made , Dewi, Yuliani Setia |
| Publisher Article | KadikmA |
| Subtitle Article | KadikmA Vol 4, No 1 (2013): April 2013 |
| Scholar Google | http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=%2Bintitle%3A&… |
| View Article | http://jurnal.unej.ac.id/index… |
| DOI | http://download.garuda.ristekdikti.… |
| DOI Number | Full PDF (848.296 KB) |
| Download Article [1] | http://jurnal.unej.ac.id/index.php/kadik… |
| Download Article [2] | http://download.garuda.ristekdikti.go.id… |
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