United States non-resident eligible voters

Absentee ballots for Americans at the Maritime Festival in Dublin

U.S. non-resident eligible voters during the midterm election in 2022 have been estimated at 2.8 million. However the absentee ballots received (cast votes) approximated to ninety-five thousand, the equivalent of 3.4% of non-resident voters.[1] The main reason for voters abroad not casting the ballot was difficulties with the voting process,[2] but also lack of connection with U.S. policy[3] and the risk of exposure to U.S. local taxation.[4]

Overseas Citizen Voting-Age Population

The Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) designates the U.S. non-resident voters with the acronym OCVAP “Overseas Citizen Voting-Age Population” that are U.S. civilians and military entitled to an absentee ballot to be sent abroad.[5] Since a single registry of U.S. non-residents does not exist, OCVAP is calculated taking the data from the Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries (DIOC) compared with IPUMS International data.[6]

As of February 2016, the FVAP publishes the Overseas Citizen Population Analysis.[7]

2022 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis (OCPA) [note 1]

Year	Election	Est. citizens abroad[1]	Est. eligible to vote[1]	Est. votes	Voting rate[1]
2010	Midterm	3,099,088	1,907,624	N/a	N/a
2012	Presidential	3,346,920	2,087,843	136,280[8]	5.4%
2014	Midterm	3,508,009	2,204,857	94,809	4.3%
2016	Presidential	3,684,898	2,248,832	206,893	9.2%
2018	Midterm	3,921,952	2,422,122	135,639	5.6%
2020	Presidential	3,991,358	2,489,074	224,017	9.0%
2022	Midterm	4,397,534	2,794,558	94,927	3.4%

Notes

1. In 2022 the FVAP changed the methods to estimate the number of citizens abroad and eligible to vote. The FVAP recommends to use the figures published in 2022 for comparisons with previous OCPA reports.

References

1. "2022 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis (" (PDF). FVAP.
2. "Millions of Americans overseas can vote — but few do". CBS NEWS.
3. "I'm an American Living Abroad Permanently. Should I Vote in U.S. Elections?". The New York Times.
4. "how voting works for Americans overseas". The Conversation.
5. "2022 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis" (PDF). FVAP. p. 4.
6. "2022 Overseas Citizen Population Analysis" (PDF). FVAP. p. 184.
7. "2022 OCPA summary brief" (PDF). FVAP. p. 5.
8. "Overseas Citizen Population Analysis" (PDF). FVAP. Feb 2016.