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Israel and the nuclear program of Iran The government of Israel believes that if the Islamic Republic of Iran achieves the development of nuclear weapons, the existence of Israel will be in serious danger and this regime will be the first target of a possible nuclear attack by Iran.[1] Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, who is mentioned as one of the supporters[2] of Israel's "preemptive strike" on Iran's nuclear facilities, has repeatedly emphasized in official speeches that "all the risks are small and insignificant compared to the risk of Iran's nuclearization."[3] The Iranian government has repeatedly emphasized that the country's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes such as energy production and medical issues, and is not seeking to build nuclear weapons.[4] Also, during the threats of an Israeli attack, the Iranian government emphasizes that it will give a "heavy response"[5] to the "scenario of an Israeli attack" on Iran, and Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Iranian government and commander-in-chief, has also said that "anyone whoever in the thinks of invading the Islamic Republic of Iran, should prepare himself to receive strong slaps and steel fists from the army, IRGC and Basij."[6] Supporters and opponents of the preemptive strikes in Israel Influential and high-ranking people in Israel's army and intelligence, military and security organizations, as well as among senior politicians and Israeli media, are in favor or against that Israel's "preemptive attack" on "Iran's nuclear facilities" and each of these two groups have their own arguments and analysis.[7][8] Proponents of the "preemptive attack" on Iran's nuclear facilities evaluate the negotiations of the 5+1 group to reach a diplomatic agreement on this country's nuclear program as "failed" and "useless" and as the "waste of time" policy of the Iranian government. This proponents considers the negative impact of Western economic sanctions on Iran's economy insufficient to solve the nuclear crisis and they believes that Iran's nuclear program has progressed significantly during this period. They believe that the Iranian government is reaching an irreversible point in the cycle of uranium enrichment and making missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.[9] On the other hand, the opponents of the Israeli "preemptive attack" believe that the daily life of the Israeli people will face serious and formidable risks by going to a "risky war".[10] Possible attack methods of Israel The Israeli Air Force has purchased 125 advanced F-15L and F-16L military aircraft, a number of advanced fifth-generation F-35 fighters, and 55 GBU-28[11] laser-guided missiles capable of destroying bunker buster from the United States of America. Israeli Air Force fighters are equipped with automatic devices and additional fuel tanks and are suitable for long-range attacks.[12] Possible routes for Israel's "preemptive strike"According to the analysis of the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, there are four routes for the Israeli Air Force fighters to reach Iran: "The southern route over Saudi Arabia, the northern route over Syria and Turkey, the central route over Jordan and Iraq and a longer route over the Red Sea that does not require entering the airspace of a third country."[13] Alleged plan to attack IranOn August 15, 2012, American journalist Richard Sullivan claimed that he had obtained classified documents through an Israeli politician connected to a high-ranking anti-war officer in the Israeli army. The classified documents was about how Israel attacked Iran. According to this alleged plan, Israel has prepared for a 1-month war. According to Richard Sullivan, "military operations will be carried out with a series of extensive cyber attacks against Iran's infrastructure. After that, ballistic missiles will be hit Iran's nuclear facilities, command centers and military facilities, research and development centers related to the Atomic Energy Organization and the homes of senior figures related to Iran's nuclear program and missile development. In the final phase, manned fighters will be used to destroy the remaining targets that have not been completely destroyed by ballistic missiles."[14] Human casualtiesA study has been conducted at the University of Utah and the Omid Institute about the casualties of a possible Israeli attack on Iran, which says that in the event of an attack on Iran's nuclear centers (in Isfahan, Arak, Natanz and Bushehr), between five thousand to eighty thousand people may be killed. According to the author of this research, Khosrow Semnani, an expert in the industrial management of nuclear waste, the talk of this possible war has always been raised in the political and economic environment, but nothing has been said about the people of Iran who pay the main cost of these events.[15] According to this report, between 3,000 and 10,000 people will be killed immediately, and in addition, many people will be exposed to nuclear radiation and the death toll will be much higher. This attack may kill or injure between seventy thousand to three hundred thousand peoples only in Isfahan. Also, this research shows that Iran is not ready to help citizens who are exposed to nuclear radiation and "it will be a disaster on the scale of Bhopal and Chernobyl."[15][16] Possible reaction of Iran's air defenseIran has anti-aircraft defense to counter the attacks of hostile fighters, and it has 29 mobile Tor-M1 and S-300 systems made by Russia.[17] Iran's senior military officials have announced that in case of an attack on Iran, the entire territory of Israel and the military bases of the United States of America in the Middle East region will be targeted by Iranian missiles.[18] Iran can strike Israel using Shahab-3, Sejjil 2, Ghadr-110, Haj Qasem and Khorramshahr ballistic missiles, which are capable of reaching that country.[19][20] According to the report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which is based in London, Iran's ability to directly counterattack Israel is limited, and according to information obtained from public sources, until 2012, Iran had approximately six Shahab-3 and Ghadr-110 missile launchers. Also, Iran had twelve to eighteen devices suitable for Shahab-1 and Shahab-2 missiles, which according to the report of this institute, this number is probably increasing.[21][22] Assassination of scientists related to the nuclear program of IranIsrael has been accused by the Iranian government of assassinating several Iranian nuclear scientists such as Ardeshir Hosseinpour, Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Fereydoon Abbasi and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan.[23] Several European sources have confirmed the involvement of the Mossad in these assassinations.[24][25] For example, the English-language newspaper Independent in an article entitled "The world's deadliest assassins" named Mossad as "Israel's ruthless killing machine" and enumerated the assassinations and said that "the signature of the Israeli secret service can be seen in all of these assassinations."[26] Following the assassination of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, the spokesman of the Israeli army said, "We do not shed tears for this murder." According to the Jerusalem Post, the commander of the Israeli army said the day before this assassination, 2012 will be a critical year for Iran and abnormal events will happen to this country.[27] Spiegel magazine, citing an Israeli intelligence official, announced the assassination of Dariush Rezaeinejad as the first serious action of the new head of the Mossad, Tamir Pardo.[28] The NBC channel mentioned the assassination of 4 nuclear scientists since 2007 and quoted an American official, without revealing his identity, and wrote that the attacks against those involved in Iran's nuclear program were carried out by members of the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran with the financial, training and weapons support of the Israeli intelligence service. The mentioned American official told NBC that the American government is aware of the terror operation, but has no role in it.[29][30] Following the broadcast of Majid Jamali Fashi's confession on Iranian TV, Time magazine wrote: "Iran's Ministry of Intelligence has destroyed a team equipped and trained by the Mossad. Western intelligence officials have confirmed that the details of Majid Jamali Fashi's confession about the January 2010 motorcycle assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi were correct. Western intelligence officials have declared a third country responsible for leaking this team."[31] Ronen Bergman writes in the book "Rise and Kill First" that after Ariel Sharon appointed Meir Dagan as the head of Mossad, made him responsible for disrupting Iran's nuclear program. Because from the point of view of both of them, Iran's nuclear program was considered a threat against Israel. Dagan used different methods to accomplish this task. According to Dagan, the most difficult and of course the most efficient method was to identify key scientists in Iran's missile and nuclear industry and then kill them. Mossad identified fifteen of these people and eliminated six of them. Most of the elimination operations were carried out in the morning when they were on their way to work by means of quick-explosive bombs that were attached to their cars by a motorcycle rider. These operations and many others initiated by the Mossad and sometimes carried out with the cooperation of the United States were all successful.[32] Israel has also been accused of assassinating Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. A senior Israeli official, who has been tracking Mohsen Fakhrizadeh for years, announced in an interview with the New York Times a few days after Fakhrizadeh's assassination, says that the world should thank Israel for killing Fakhrizadeh. Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz announced after the operation that Fakhrizadeh's assassination is positive for the world.[33][34][35][36] Israeli prime minister Netanyahu said in a video message after the assassination of Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics official Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: "During the last week, I did some things that I don't want to tell you about. This is for you, the citizens of Israel, for our country, this week was an achievement, and there will be more."[37] Iran's reactionThe Ministry of Intelligence of the Islamic Republic of Iran has claimed that after the first wave of assassinations of nuclear scientists, the agents of this ministry "monitored the intelligence and operational bases of Israel and identified and arrested some Israeli intelligence officers and mercenary terrorists".[38] On May 15, 2012, Majid Jamali Fashi, who was tried in the Islamic Revolutionary Court in connection with the assassination of Massoud Ali-Mohammadi and sentenced to execution for the crime of "spying for Mossad and commanding the assassination of Massoud Ali-Mohammadi". So, he was executed in Evin prison.[39] Television confession of the defendants to cooperate with the Israeli intelligence serviceIn January 2011, Iran's state television aired the television confession of Majid Jamali Fashi, in which he introduced himself as an agent trained by Mossad and accepted responsibility for the assassination of Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.[39] In August 2012, the Islamic Republic of Iran's TV channel 1 (IRIB TV1) aired a special program called "Assassination Club", televised the confessions of some of those accused of involvement in the murder of people related to Iran's nuclear program, in which Israel was referred to as the "headquarters of the assassination of nuclear scientists."[40] List of those killed
Accusation of attacking Israeli diplomats and citizensIn reaction[43] to the assassination of scientists related to Iran's nuclear program, the government of that country is suspected of planning and executing a series of retaliatory attacks that took place on February 13, 2012, in Hindustan, Thailand, and Georgia against Israel's diplomatic affiliates.[44] Also, Iran has been accused by the Israeli authorities of trying to bomb Israel's interests in Kenya and Cyprus.[45] In this regard, the International Police has ordered the arrest of several Iranian citizens who were suspected of participating in these operations.[46] On July 18, 2012, a suicide attack on a bus carrying Israeli tourists in eastern Bulgaria resulted in the death of 5 Israeli citizens.[47] Israel's reactionIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in response to these attacks: "Iran is the biggest exporter of terrorists in the world and the traces of this country can be seen behind these attacks".[44] The Iranian government has denied these accusations.[48] Malware and computer virusesOn January 16, 2011, the New York Times wrote in an investigative article that "Israel first tested the Stuxnet computer worm at the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center and on similar centrifuges used in Iran at the Natanz nuclear facility." This is despite the fact that the government of Israel or the United States have never officially confirmed involvement in the spread of the Stuxnet virus.[49] On June 20, 2012, the Washington Post newspaper wrote in an investigative article that the Flame malware, which had a very complex structure[50] with the purpose of "spying on computer networks and obtaining information necessary to disrupt the progress of Iran's nuclear program" has been produced and used against Iran by the US Central Intelligence Agency, the US National Security Agency and the Israel Defense Forces.[51] Kaspersky Lab has evaluated the date of the beginning of the malware attacks known as "Flame" from August 2010.[52] Accused of vandalismOn September 17, 2012, Fereydoon Abbasi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, announced the occurrence of a deliberate explosion in the power lines of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant on August 17, 2012, and added that "power outage is one of the ways to damage centrifuge machines".[53][54] On October 30, 2013, Iran's Minister of Intelligence, Mahmoud Alavi, said: "Actually, these people were thieves, not nuclear saboteurs, and they were from the village around the power plant, and they had a history of doing these things."[55] See also
References
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