The timing of "fire season" in California is variable, depending on the amount of prior winter and spring precipitation, the frequency and severity of weather such as heat waves and wind events, and moisture content in vegetation. Northern California typically sees wildfire activity between late spring and early fall, peaking in the summer with hotter and drier conditions. Occasional cold frontal passages can bring wind and lightning. The timing of fire season in Southern California is similar, peaking between late spring and fall. The severity and duration of peak activity in either part of the state is modulated in part by weather events: downslope/offshore wind events can lead to critical fire weather, while onshore flow and Pacific weather systems can bring conditions that hamper wildfire growth.[3][4]
Summary
According to climate scientists, climate change increased the likelihood of the event by creating first a very strong rainfall (which resulted in more vegetation), and then a very strong drought (which dried the vegetation). The likelihood for such events increased by 31–66% from 1950. Previous climate models underestimated the risk, but even they said that a 3-degree temperature rise will increase the chances for such events 2 times in comparison to current conditions. Climate change also increases the intensity of winds, and reduces the amount of water available for stopping the wildfires.[5][6][7]
Scientists from the University of California made a fast evaluation, estimating that the difference between the average temperatures in 1980–2023 and the abnormally hot 2024 alone is responsible for 25% of the moisture deficit which was one of the causes of the wildfires. They mentioned that "Substantial anthropogenic warming occurred prior to this period, so our estimate of the effect of heat anomalies in 2024 is conservative". Their study is still not peer reviewed.[8]
Another analysis from ClimaMeter estimated that the weather conditions in the region when the wildfires begun were "up 5°C warmer, 3 mm/day (up to 15%) drier, and up to 5 km/h (up to 20%) windier" during the years 1987–2023 in comparison to the years 1950–1986. It was mainly due to climate change, while natural variability played only a small role.[9] Additionally, as climate change made the wildfire season in California longer, it further overlapped with the season of Santa Ana winds (October-January).[10]
The wildfires destroyed houses of some of the richest people in California, including many homes in Malibu's Carbon Beach, colloquially also known as "Billionaire's Beach".[11]
List of wildfires
The following is a list of fires that burned more than 1,000 acres (400 ha), produced significant structural damage, or resulted in casualties.
Evacuations forced; destroyed at least 6,770 structures and damaged 904 in Pacific Palisades, northwest of Santa Monica. Eleven confirmed fatalities and four confirmed injuries. Third most destructive wildfire in California history. Associated with extremely powerful Santa Ana wind event.
Evacuations forced; destroyed 9,418 structures and damaged 1,073 in Altadena and Pasadena, making it the second most destructive fire in California history. Seventeen confirmed fatalities and nine confirmed injuries. Associated with extremely powerful Santa Ana wind event.
^Containment means that fire crews have established and secured control lines around the fire's perimeter. These lines are barriers, like trenches or cleared vegetation, designed to stop the fire's spread. Containment reflects progress in managing the fire but does not necessarily mean the fire is under control or out.
