2018 Mayo by-election

2018 Mayo by-election

28 July 2018 (2018-07-28)
The Division of Mayo (SA) in the House of Representatives
Registered	107,554
Turnout	85.52% 8.67
First party Second party   Candidate Rebekha Sharkie Georgina Downer Party Centre Alliance Liberal Popular vote 39,369 33,219 Percentage 44.37% 37.44% Swing 9.51 0.32 2CP 57.53% 42.47% 2CP swing 2.56 2.56
MP before election Rebekha Sharkie Centre Alliance Elected MP Rebekha Sharkie Centre Alliance

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.[1]

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Sharkie to retain the electorate with an increased margin.[2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Sharkie and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:

• 2018 Braddon by-election
• 2018 Fremantle by-election
• 2018 Longman by-election
• 2018 Perth by-election

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer deleted her Twitter account on 13 June 2018, claiming that trolls had been attacking her with bad language, with counterclaims from Twitter users that she had deleted legitimate policy questions posted to her Facebook account.[5]

Historically, the rural seat of Mayo has been a comfortably safe Liberal seat in two-party terms, though over the past two decades, the Liberals in Mayo had been repeatedly left vulnerable by several strong election results from minor parties and independents. Mayo was represented by Liberal candidate Georgina Downer's father, Alexander Downer, for the first 24 years of Mayo's 34-year history.[6] Further back, others in the Downer family including a Premier of South Australia represented overlapping geographical areas, in the federal seat of Angas and the state seats of Barossa and Encounter Bay.[7][8][9]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[10]

• Friday, 11 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
• Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
• Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
• Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
• Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
• Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
• Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
• Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
• Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.[7]

Party		Candidate	Background
	Christian Democrats	Tracey-Lee Cane	Pastor[11]
	People	Kelsie Harfouche	Beauty therapist and business owner[12]
	Greens	Major Sumner	High-profile Ngarrindjeri elder, Order of Australia recipient, community worker and activist[13]
	Liberal	Georgina Downer	Lawyer, Institute of Public Affairs research fellow, former diplomat[14]
	Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	Previous MP for Mayo elected at the 2016 federal election[15]
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Humble	Contested the 2012 Port Adelaide state by-election and the upper house at the 2018 state election[7]
	Labor	Reg Coutts	Telecommunications consultant and academic professor[16]

The Family First Party (now the Australian Conservatives) contested Mayo at the last election on 4.6% (−2.5%) but declined to contest the by-election.[17]

Polling

Mayo by-election polling

Date	Firm	Commissioned by	Sample	Primary vote							TCP vote
				CA	LIB	ALP	GRN	OTH	UND		CA	LIB
23 July 2018	YouGov−Galaxy	The Advertiser[18]	540	47%	35%	9%	7%	2%	−		59%	41%
21 June 2018	ReachTEL	Australia Institute[19]	736	43.5%	32.7%	8.2%	9.0%	4.1%	2.6%		62%	38%
7 June 2018	YouGov−Galaxy	The Advertiser[20]	515	44%	37%	11%	6%	2%	2%		58%	42%
5 June 2018	ReachTEL	Australia Institute[21]	1031	40.1%	34.4%	7.7%	10.7%	3.5%	3.6%		58%	42%
2016 election				34.9%	37.8%	13.5%	8.1%	5.8%			55.0%	45.0%

Results

Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Mayo

2018 Mayo by-election[22][23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	39,369	44.37	+9.51
	Liberal	Georgina Downer	33,219	37.44	−0.32
	Greens	Major Sumner	7,898	8.90	+0.85
	Labor	Reg Coutts	5,370	6.05	−7.47
	Christian Democrats	Tracey-Lee Cane	1,348	1.52	+1.52
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Humble	809	0.91	−0.30
	People's Party	Kelsie Harfouche	716	0.81	+0.81
Total formal votes			88,729	96.47	−0.64
Informal votes			3,246	3.53	+0.64
Turnout			91,975	85.52	−8.67
Two-party-preferred result
	Liberal	Georgina Downer	49,375	55.65	+0.30
	Labor	Reg Coutts	39,354	44.35	−0.30
Two-candidate-preferred result
	Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	51,042	57.53	+2.56
	Liberal	Georgina Downer	37,687	42.47	−2.56
	Centre Alliance hold		Swing	+2.56

See also

• July 2018 Australian federal by-elections
• List of Australian federal by-elections
• 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis

References

1. "Four MPs, one senator gone as citizenship drama claims more victims". ABC News. 9 May 2018. Archived from the original on 29 November 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
2. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
3. "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018". Archived from the original on 22 September 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2018.
4. "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Archived from the original on 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
5. "Georgina Downer deletes Twitter account midway through Mayo campaign". ABC News. 13 June 2018. Archived from the original on 16 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
6. Grattan, Michelle (7 June 2018). "Liberals' Georgina Downer trailing in early Mayo poll". The Conversation Australia. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
7. "Mayo 2018 By-election". abc.net.au. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
8. Hancock, I. R., "Sir Alexander Russell (Alick) Downer (1910–1981)", Australian Dictionary of Biography, Canberra: National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, retrieved 17 December 2024
9. Bartlett, Peter, "Sir John William Downer (1843–1915)", Australian Dictionary of Biography, Canberra: National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, retrieved 17 December 2024
10. "2018 Mayo by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
11. "Candidate details, 2018 Mayo by-election: AEC". Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 15 July 2018.
12. "By-election 2018 endorsed South Australian candidates". Australian People's Party. Archived from the original on 10 July 2018. Retrieved 10 July 2018.
13. "Major wildcard spices up Mayo poll". The Advertiser. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
14. "Georgina Downer endorsed as Liberal candidate for Mayo ahead of by-election". ABC News. 14 May 2018. Archived from the original on 15 May 2018. Retrieved 14 May 2018.
15. "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018". Archived from the original on 10 May 2018. Retrieved 17 May 2018.
16. "NBN consultant Reg Coutts unveiled as Labor candidate for Mayo by-election". ABC. Adelaide. 7 June 2018. Archived from the original on 8 June 2018. Retrieved 9 June 2018.
17. "Sharkie "doing a good job", says Labor's Mayo hopeful - InDaily". www.indaily.com.au. 7 June 2018. Archived from the original on 19 September 2023. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
18. "Voters look set to entrench Sharkie in Mayo - InDaily". InDaily. 23 July 2018. Archived from the original on 23 July 2018. Retrieved 23 July 2018.
19. "Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018". Archived from the original on 24 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
20. "By-elections and preselections: The Poll Bludger 8 June 2018". Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 9 June 2018.
21. 5 June 2018 Mayo by-election polling: ReachTEL 6 June 2018
22. "Mayo by-election results: AEC".
23. "Mayo by-election results: ABC". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 12 July 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.

External links

• 2018 Mayo by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission
• 2018 Mayo by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
• 2018 Mayo by-election guide: The Poll Bludger
• 2018 Mayo by-election guide: The Tally Room
• By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018
• Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018