Opinion polling for the 2024 Salvadoran general election

The following tables list the results of opinion polls for the presidential, legislative, and municipal elections conducted since October 2022 in reverse chronological order for the 2024 Salvadoran general election. The party with the highest percentage is listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the party with the second highest percentage is listed in bold. The lead column shows the percentage between the parties with the first and second highest percentages. For legislative and municipal election polls, projected seat counts, if available, are listed below the percentage.

Presidential election

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

After 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Other None Unsure Lead Ref.
Bukele
(NI) 		Sánchez
(ARENA) 		Flores
(FMLN) 		Parada
(NT) 		Renderos
(FS) 		Murillo
(FPS) 		Cardoza
(PAIS)
2024 election 4 Feb 2024 N/A 84.65 5.57 6.40 2.04 0.74 0.60 – – – – 78.25 [1]
Cid-Gallup (exit poll) 4 Feb 2024 – 87.0 4.0 7.0 1.6 0.6 0.5 – – – – 80.0 [2]
End of the presidential campaigning period on 31 January 2024
Cid-Gallup Jan 2024 2,400 79.0 4.0 4.0 – – – – 1.0 – 12.0 74.0 [3]
Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 2,892 81.9 3.4 4.2 2.5 1.1 1.0 – – 3.0 3.0 77.7 [4]
Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 1,264 68.7 1.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 – – 7.8 19.3 66.4 [4]
CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 70.9 2.7 2.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 – – 6.1 15.0 68.0 [5]
Fundaungo 11 Nov–14 Dec 2023 1,201 56.0 2.1 3.3 0.9 – – – 1.7 0.6 22.3 52.7 [6]
Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 61.7 1.5 2.6 0.3 – 0.2 0.1 1.7 9.4 14.0 59.1 [7]
Cid-Gallup 6–13 Nov 2023 1,200 79.0 3.0 2.0 – – – – 2.0 – 14.0 76.0 [8]
Beginning of the presidential campaigning period on 3 October 2023
OPINES 18 Sept 2023 1,320 92.0 2.0 1.0 0.3 – – – – 2.0 2.7 90.0 [9]
CEC-UFG 15–21 Aug 2023 1,920 68.4 4.3 2.8 2.0 1.5 – – – 9.2 11.8 64.1 [10]

Before 20 July 2023

Presidential election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V Other None Unsure Lead Ref.
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 53.7 1.9 2.5 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 – 38.8 51.2 [11]
CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 70.3 3.3 1.2 1.8 – – – – – – 23.4 67.0 [12]
La Prensa Gráfica 15–24 Feb 2023 1,520 54.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 – – – 0.8 – – 42.5 52.5 [13]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 49.3 2.6 – 1.4 – – – 1.1 8.6 9.8 27.2 46.7 [14]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 66.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 – 0.2 0.5 – 9.8 18.2 48.0 [15]
2019 election 7 Feb 2019 N/A – 31.72 14.41 53.10 – – – 0.77 – – – 21.38 [16]

Legislative election

Local regression of polls conducted
Legislative election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD DS FPS PAIS FS Other None Unsure Lead Ref.
Cid-Gallup Jan 2024 2,400 60.0
56 		5.0
2 		2.0
1 		4.0
1 		–
0 		–
1 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		2.0
0 		– 27.0 55.0 [3]
Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 534 67.6 4.7 3.6 2.6 – 0.4 0.9 0.4 – – – – – – – 19.9 62.9 [17]
Iudop-UCA 3–14 Jan 2024 428 58.6 2.1 3.0 5.6 1.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 – – – 0.5 – – 26.2 53.0 [17]
CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 –
57 		–
2 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
1 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		–
0 		– – – – [5]
Beginning of the legislative campaigning period on 3 December 2023
Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 866 81.2 3.6 5.5 3.9 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 – – 0.1 75.7 [7]
CEC-UFG 15–21 Aug 2023 1,920 59.0
58 		5.8
1 		2.9
1 		2.5
0 		2.1
0 		1.2
0 		0.5
0 		0.9
0 		0.4
0 		0.0
0 		0.1
0 		0.4
0 		1.1
0 		– 12.0 11.1 53.2 [18]
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 45.0 2.7 2.9 3.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 – – – – – 1.6 9.1 25.9 42.1 [11]
CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 63.0 5.0 1.3 2.8 – – – 1.4 – – – – – 1.6 4.7 20.2 58.0 [19]
La Prensa Gráfica 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 49.7 2.5 1.4 – – – – – – – – – – 2.7 – 43.7 47.2 [20]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 44.3 3.1 1.1 2.6 – – – – – – – – – 1.7 9.7 33.9 41.2 [21]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 62.8 2.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 – – – – – – 10.2 18.6 59.9 [15]
2021 election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 66.46
56 		12.18
14 		6.91
4 		5.29
5 		4.08
2 		1.70
1 		1.70
1 		1.01
1 		0.56
0 		– – – – – – – 54.28 [22]

Municipal election

Municipal election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD DS FPS PAIS FS Other None Unsure Lead Ref.
Beginning of the municipal campaigning period on 5 February 2024
CEC-UFG 3–8 Jan 2024 1,904 54.7 5.8 2.8 3.3 – 3.0 – – – – – – – 12.1 18.3 – 48.9 [5]
Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 40.3 4.8 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 – 11.5 31.2 35.5 [7]
Fundaungo 1–5 Sept 2023 502 35.9 2.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 – 0.1 0.1 – – – – – 2.4 17.1 37.7 33.7 [23]
Primary elections finalized by 20 July 2023
Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 40.4 3.5 3.7 4.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.4 – – – – – 0.3 – 45.5 35.5 [11]
CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 56.7 4.9 2.2 3.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 – – 0.1 0.3 6.5 23.5 51.8 [19]
La Prensa Gráfica 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 41.9 4.3 2.3 1.9 – – – – – – – – – 2.0 – 47.6 37.6 [20]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 35.3 4.6 2.2 3.6 – – – – – – – – – 2.7 8.2 41.0 30.7 [21]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 50.0 3.4 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.8 – – – – – – 10.5 29.1 46.6 [15]
2021 election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 50.78
152 		19.01
35 		11.16
30 		10.86
27 		4.93
14 		1.73
3 		0.45
0 		0.39
1 		0.69
0 		– – – – – – – 31.77 [24]

Polling on Bukele's re-election

See also: Opinion polling on the Nayib Bukele presidency § 2024 re-election polling

According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid.[25][26] Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election.[27]

The following table lists the results of opinion polls regarding Bukele's re-election, with the option with the highest percentage listed in bold and displayed with its background shaded, and the lead column shows the difference between the "would support" and the "would not support" options. The following graph visualizes local regression of the table's results.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Would support Would not support Undecided Lead Ref.
Iudop-UCA 11–29 Nov 2023 1,512 69.9 24.3 5.8 45.6 [28]
TResearch Jun 2023 1,000 90.9 8.8 0.3 82.1 [29]
CEC-UFG 27 May–1 Jun 2023 1,334 75.6 12.5 11.9 63.1 [30]
CIESCA May 2023 – 91.85 5.36 2.79 86.49 [31]
TResearch May 2023 1,000 90.4 9.3 0.3 81.1 [29]
TResearch Apr 2023 1,000 91.2 7.5 1.3 83.7 [29]
TResearch Mar 2023 1,000 92.6 6.2 1.2 86.4 [29]
La Prensa Gráfica 15–24 Feb 2023 1,500 68.0 13.0 19.0 55.0 [32]
TResearch 14–16 Feb 2023 1,000 93.9 5.7 0.4 88.2 [29]
CEC-UFG 4–8 Feb 2023 1,263 62.2 19.0 18.8 43.2 [33]
TResearch Jan 2023 1,000 92.7 5.9 1.4 86.8 [29]
TResearch Dec 2022 1,000 93.7 4.8 1.5 88.9 [29]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 64.6 17.9 17.5 46.7 [34]
TResearch Nov 2022 1,000 94.1 4.5 1.4 89.6 [29]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 74.7 12.8 12.5 61.9 [35]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 77.2 11.0 11.8 66.2 [35]
TResearch Oct 2022 1,000 94.8 3.9 1.3 90.9 [29]
TResearch 17–19 Sep 2022 1,000 94.3 4.4 1.4 89.9 [26]
CIESCA 18 Sep 2022 25,623 88.3 11.7 – 76.6 [25]
CEC-UFG 10–14 Sep 2022 1,231 58.9 23.1 15.0 35.8 [36]
CEC-UFG 26 May 2022 – 72.2 – – – [37]

Intentions to vote

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Will vote Will not vote Undecided Lead Ref.
Fundaungo 1–5 Sept 2023 502 82.8 16.7 0.5 66.1 [23]
Fundaungo 2 May–9 Jun 2023 2,314 83.2 15.1 1.7 68.1 [11]
La Prensa Gráfica Feb 2023 – 83.6 9.5 6.9 74.1 [38]
La Prensa Gráfica Nov 2022 – 78.8 10.3 11.0 68.5 [38]

See also

References

  1. ^ "En Vivo: Cierre de Escrutinio Final de la Elección de Presidente y Vicepresidente 2024" [Live: The Final Tally of the 2024 Election for President and Vice President Closes]. El Mundo (in Spanish). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 9 February 2024.
  2. ^ America Elects [@AmericaElige] (4 February 2024). "El Salvador, CID Gallup exit poll: Presidential election Bukele (NI, Conservative): 87% Flores (FMLN, Left): 7% Sánchez (ARENA, conservative): 4% … Fieldwork: 4 February 2024 #ElSalvador #Elecciones2024 #EleccionesSV" (Tweet). Retrieved 4 February 2024 – via Twitter.
  3. ^ a b Magaña, Yolanda (19 January 2024). "Cid-Gallup: 79% Votaría por Bukele y Nuevas Ideas ya Tiene Asegurados 52 Escaños" [Cid-Gallup: 79% Will Vote for Bukele and Nuevas Ideas now Has 52 Seats Assured]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  4. ^ a b Magaña, Yolanda (18 January 2024). "Encuesta Iudop–UCA: 81.9% Votó por Nuevas Ideas en Simulación de Presidencial" [Iudop–UCA Poll: 81.9% Voted for Nuevas Ideas in Presidential Simulation]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  5. ^ a b c Magaña, Yolanda (16 January 2024). "Bukele con 70.9% de Intención de Voto y Nuevas Ideas con 57 Diputados: Encuesta UFG" [Bukele with 70.9% of the Intended Vote and Nuevas Ideas with 57 Deputies: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 January 2024.
  6. ^ Guzmán, Jessica (18 January 2024). "Encuesta Coloca a Bukele más de 50 Puntos Sobre sus Contendientes" [Poll Gives Bukele more than 50 Points Above His Competitors]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 January 2024.
  7. ^ a b c Magaña, Yolanda (6 December 2023). "Nuevas Ideas con Amplia Ventaja Sobre Partidos Opositores: Encuesta Iudop-UCA" [Nuevas Ideas With High Support Over Opposition Parties: Iudop-UCA Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  8. ^ Martínez, Verónica (17 November 2023). "De Realizarse las Elecciones Hoy, el Presidente Bukele Ganaría con un 93% de Votos a Favor" [If the Election Happened Today, President Bukele Would Win with 93% of Votes in Favor]. La Noticia SV (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 November 2023.
  9. ^ "Presidente Nayib Bukele con 92% de Intención de Voto para Elecciones Presidenciales 2024" [President Nayib Bukele Has 92% of the Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election]. La Noticia SV (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. 18 September 2023. Retrieved 18 September 2023.
  10. ^ Crespín, Verónica (28 August 2023). "Bukele Ganaría Ampliamente la Reelección, Según Estudio de UFG" [Bukele Would Widely Win Re-Election, According to a UFG Study]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 August 2023.
  11. ^ a b c d Magaña, Yolanda (29 June 2023). "Encuesta: 45% Votaría por Nuevas Ideas, 2.9% por el FMLN y 2.7% por ARENA" [Poll: 45% Would Vote for Nuevas Ideas, 2.9% for the FMLN, and 2.7% for ARENA]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 June 2023.
  12. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (6 June 2023). "El 70.3% Votaría por Nuevas Ideas en Presidenciales 2024: UFG" [70.3% Will Vote for Nuevas Ideas in the 2024 Presidential Election: UFG]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
  13. ^ Segura, Edwin (13 March 2023). "Nuevas Ideas Amplía su Favoritismo Electoral" [Nuevas Ideas Increases Its Electoral Favoritism]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 March 2023.
  14. ^ Segura, Edwin (14 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Nuevas Ideas Arranca como Favorito en Elección" [LPG Statistics | Nuevas Ideas Runs Away as Election Favorite]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2022.
  15. ^ a b c Picardo Joao, Óscar (10 November 2022). "La Última Encuesta del CEC–UFG: Reelección, Coyuntura Política y Preferencias Electorales" [The Most Recent Poll from CEC–UFG: Re-Election, Political Situation, and Electoral Preferences]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 11 November 2022. Retrieved 12 November 2022.
  16. ^ Supreme Electoral Court [@TSEElSalvador] (7 February 2019). "Resultados (Elección Presidencial de 2019)" [Results (2019 Presidential Election)] (Tweet) (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. Archived from the original on 29 August 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022 – via Twitter.
  17. ^ a b Tobar, Tatiana (18 January 2024). "Nuevas Ideas Obtendría Mayoría en la Asamblea Legislativa, Según Encuesta de la UCA" [Nuevas Ideas Will Obtain a Majority in the Legislative Assembly, According to UCA Poll]. Diario la Huella (in Spanish). Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  18. ^ "Encuesta UFG: Bukele y NI Dominarían Todas las Elecciones en 2024" [UFG Poll: Bukele and NI Dominate All the 2024 Elections]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). 28 August 2023. Retrieved 28 August 2023.
  19. ^ a b Magaña, Yolanda (6 June 2023). "63% Votaría por Diputados de Nuevas Ideas, 43% Quiere Equilibrio: Encuesta UFG" [63% Will Vote for Nuevas Ideas Deputies, 43% Want Equilibrium: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
  20. ^ a b Segura, Edwin (13 March 2023). "Salvadoreños Creen que es Más Conveniente una Asamblea Plural" [Salvadorans Believe a Plural Assembly is More Convenient]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 13 March 2023.
  21. ^ a b Segura, Edwin (15 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Ciudadanos Prefieren un Parlamento con Diversidad de Pensamiento" [LPG Statistics | Citizens Prefer a Parliament with Diversity of Thought]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 31 December 2022.
  22. ^ "Elecciones 2021 – Diputados y Diputadas para Asamblea Legislativa" [2021 Elections – Deputies for the Legislative Assembly] (PDF). Supreme Electoral Court (in Spanish). March 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 April 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
  23. ^ a b Peñate, Susana (28 September 2023). "Tres de Cada Diez Personas Prefiere un Cambio de Partido Gobernante en su Municipio, Señala Encuesta" [Three Out of Every Ten People Prefer a Change in the Governing Party in Their Municipality, Says Poll]. El Diario de Hoy (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  24. ^ "Elecciones 2021 – Conformación de Consejos Municipales" [2021 Elections – Formation of Municipal Councils]. Supreme Electoral Court (in Spanish). March 2021. Retrieved 12 November 2022.
  25. ^ a b Genoves, Alessia (19 September 2022). "88.3% de la Población, a Favor de Reelección de Bukele" [88.3% in Favor of Bukele's Re-Election]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 18 October 2022. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  26. ^ a b America Elects [@AmericaElige] (20 September 2022). "Would you vote for the re-election of President Nayib Bukele (NI, conservative) if he decides to run?" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 October 2022 – via Twitter.
  27. ^ Multiple sources:
  28. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (6 December 2023). "70% Avala que Bukele haya Presentado Candidatura Presidencial: Encuesta UCA" [70% Support Bukele Has Presented a Presidential Candidacy: UCA Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  29. ^ a b c d e f g h i Penna, Carlos (31 May 2023). "Jun/23 El Salvador: 4 Años de Gobierno 92% lo Aprueba" [Jun/23 El Salvador: 4 Years of Government 92% Approve]. TResearch (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 November 2022.
  30. ^ Villarroel, Gabriela (6 June 2023). "El 75.6% Apoya la Reelección de Bukele de 2024, Según Encuesta de la UFG" [75.6% Support the Re-Election of Bukele in 2024, According to Poll from UFG]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 June 2023.
  31. ^ CIESCA CENTROAMERICA [@CIESCA_OFICIAL] (31 May 2023). "Tercera entrega: Los salvadoreños aprueban la reelección del presidente @nayibbukele en un 91.85%" [Third poll: Salvadorans approve the re-election of president @nayibbukele with 91.85%.] (Tweet). Retrieved 31 May 2023 – via Twitter.
  32. ^ Rentiera, Nelson (14 March 2023). "Despite Constitutional Ban, Salvadoran Leader Heavily Favored for Re-Election, Poll Shows". Reuters. San Salvador, El Salvador. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  33. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (16 February 2023). "62.2% de Salvadoreños Están de Acuerdo con la Reelección de Bukele: Encuesta UFG" [62.2% of Salvadorans Are in Agreement of Bukele's Re-Election: UFG Poll]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 February 2023.
  34. ^ Segura, Edwin (14 December 2022). "LPG Datos | Salvadoreños a Favor de Extender Mandato Presidencial" [LPG Statistics: | Salvadorans in Favor of Extending Presidential Mandate]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2022.
  35. ^ a b Magaña, Yolanda (10 November 2022). "Mayoría Apoya la Reelección Inmediata de Bukele Según Encuesta de UFG" [Majority Support the Immediate Re-Election of Bukele According to Poll by UFG]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 10 November 2022.
  36. ^ America Elects [@AmericaElige] (30 September 2022). "Do you agree or disagree with the possible re-election of President Nayib Bukele (NI, conservative)?" (Tweet). Retrieved 16 October 2022 – via Twitter.
  37. ^ Genoves, Alessia (26 May 2022). "Reelección de Bukele Piden 72.2% de la Población, según UFG" [72.2% of the Populations Asks for Bukele's Re-Election]. Contra Punto (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 17 October 2022. Retrieved 16 October 2022.
  38. ^ a b Segura, Edwin (14 March 2023). "LPG Datos | El 68% Dice que Definitivamente Asistirá a Votar" [LPG Statistics | 68% Say They Will Definitely Come to Vote]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2023.