Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 20 February 2005, to the day the next election was held, on 27 September 2009.

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

  Exit poll

Date Polling Firm/Source PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE Others Lead
27 Sep 2009 2009 legislative election 36.6
97 		29.1
81 		7.9
15 		10.4
21 		9.8
16 		6.2
0 		7.5
27 Sep (21:00) Eurosondagem[a] 36.5 28.0 8.3 10.6 10.2 6.4 8.5
27 Sep (20:00) Eurosondagem[a] 38.3 28.8 7.6 8.8 10.1 6.4 9.5
27 Sep Intercampus[a] 38.0 28.3 7.5 10.1 10.0 6.1 9.7
27 Sep UCP–CESOP[a] 38.0 27.0 8.5 10.0 10.5 6.0 11.0
21–24 Sep Aximage 36.6 27.5 8.0 8.1 9.2 10.6 9.1
21–23 Sep Intercampus 38.0 29.9 8.4 7.7 9.4 6.6 8.1
17–22 Sep UCP–CESOP 38.0 30.0 7.0 8.0 11.0 6.0 8.0
18–21 Sep Marktest 40.0 31.6 7.2 8.2 9.0 4.0 8.4
14–17 Sep Aximage 36.1 29.7 7.5 7.6 10.0 9.1 6.4
13–16 Sep Eurosondagem 34.9 31.6 8.4 8.4 9.6 7.1 3.3
12–15 Sep Intercampus 32.9 29.7 9.2 7.0 12.0 9.2 3.2
11–14 Sep UCP–CESOP 38.0 32.0 7.0 7.0 12.0 4.0 6.0
6–9 Sep Eurosondagem 33.6 32.5 9.4 8.0 9.6 6.9 1.1
4–8 Sep UCP–CESOP 37.0 35.0 8.0 6.0 11.0 3.0 2.0
4–7 Sep Marktest 35.3 32.4 6.9 5.2 16.2 4.0 2.9
1–4 Sep Aximage 34.5 28.9 7.8 8.1 10.4 10.3 5.6
23–28 Jul Eurosondagem 33.0 31.1 9.4 8.5 10.0 8.0 1.9
14–18 Jul Marktest 35.5 34.2 7.4 4.4 14.3 4.2 1.3
1–6 Jul Aximage 30.5 30.3 9.5 6.1 13.3 10.3 0.2
25–30 Jun Eurosondagem 35.1 33.0 9.7 7.4 9.6 5.2 2.1
16–20 Jun Marktest 34.5 35.8 7.7 4.4 13.1 4.5 1.3
7 Jun 2009 2009 EP elections 26.5 31.7 10.6 8.4 10.7 12.1 5.2
7 Jun Intercampus 36.9 31.2 10.3 6.4 13.1 2.1 5.7
1–4 Jun Aximage 35.3 29.8 9.0 6.5 11.5 7.9 5.5
28 May–2 Jun Eurosondagem 39.6 33.0 7.9 5.6 9.1 4.8 6.6
20–22 May Marktest 36.3 28.3 9.4 7.1 14.7 4.2 8.0
5–7 May Aximage 37.3 26.7 8.5 5.2 12.6 9.7 10.6
30 Apr–5 May Eurosondagem 38.8 30.5 9.2 6.9 9.8 4.8 8.3
25–26 Apr UCP–CESOP 41.0 34.0 7.0 2.0 12.0 4.0 7.0
14–19 Apr Marktest 36.2 26.4 11.2 8.3 13.6 4.3 9.8
1–3 Apr Aximage 38.1 25.1 10.3 5.7 12.6 8.2 13.0
25–31 Mar Eurosondagem 39.6 29.6 9.4 7.0 9.6 4.8 10.0
17–21 Mar Marktest 36.7 28.4 8.9 9.4 12.6 4.0 8.3
2–5 Mar Aximage 38.3 24.0 9.0 6.8 12.6 9.3 14.3
26 Feb–3 Mar Eurosondagem 39.0 28.3 9.6 7.7 10.4 5.0 10.7
17–22 Feb Marktest 38.2 28.8 10.6 4.1 14.0 4.3 9.4
2–5 Feb Aximage 38.2 23.8 9.2 7.7 12.0 9.1 14.4
28 Jan–3 Feb Eurosondagem 40.3 29.1 8.8 6.9 10.1 4.8 11.2
20–23 Jan Marktest 39.6 24.9 11.9 9.7 10.1 3.8 14.7
7–13 Jan Eurosondagem 41.1 30.1 8.3 6.1 9.6 4.8 11.0
6–9 Jan Aximage[permanent dead link‍] 37.3 23.3 8.1 7.7 11.4 12.2 14.0
2009
16–19 Dec Marktest 39.9 25.7 11.0 8.0 11.6 3.8 14.2
13–14 Dec UCP–CESOP 41.0 30.0 10.0 4.0 9.0 6.0 11.0
3–5 Dec Aximage 37.9 25.9 8.4 6.2 9.5 12.1 12.0
27 Nov–2 Dec Eurosondagem 42.5 30.0 8.4 6.0 8.7 4.4 12.5
18–21 Nov Marktest 40.1 26.4 10.0 6.2 13.1 4.2 13.7
5 Nov Eurosondagem 41.8 32.1 8.5 5.2 8.4 4.0 9.7
3–5 Nov Aximage 38.6 26.1 9.0 4.7 9.1 12.5 12.5
21–24 Oct Marktest 39.8 28.7 10.0 6.4 11.4 3.7 11.1
17–21 Oct Intercampus 43.9 28.9 10.2 4.0 12.3 0.8 15.0
6–8 Oct Aximage 38.0 28.5 9.2 3.8 9.3 11.2 9.5
4–5 Oct UCP–CESOP 41.0 34.0 8.0 2.0 8.0 7.0 7.0
25–30 Sep Eurosondagem 40.2 33.3 9.9 4.8 7.7 4.1 6.9
16–20 Sep Marktest 36.1 29.3 12.6 7.1 10.9 4.0 6.8
8–10 Sep Aximage 35.7 28.9 10.4 3.8 9.3 11.9 6.8
27 Aug–2 Sep Eurosondagem 39.0 33.0 10.1 5.0 8.4 4.5 6.0
28–29 Jul Aximage 33.1 31.1 9.1 4.4 9.4 12.9 2.0
23–29 Jul Eurosondagem 39.6 32.0 10.0 5.5 8.1 4.8 7.6
15–18 Jul Marktest 36.7 32.7 10.0 5.1 11.4 4.1 4.0
5–9 Jul UCP–CESOP 40.0 32.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
1–4 Jul Aximage[permanent dead link‍] 32.5 32.0 9.7 4.3 8.2 13.3 0.5
26 Jun–1 Jul Eurosondagem 40.0 29.0 10.1 6.0 9.6 5.3 11.0
17–21 Jun Marktest 35.2 30.8 11.1 6.7 12.3 3.9 4.4
28 May–3 Jun Eurosondagem 41.8 25.0 11.0 6.9 10.0 5.3 16.8
19–26 May Marktest 33.0 32.0 12.8 6.7 11.3 4.2 1.0
7–8 May Aximage[permanent dead link‍] 36.5 29.0 34.5 7.5
23–29 Apr Eurosondagem 43.2 26.9 10.0 6.3 8.8 4.8 16.3
15–18 Apr Marktest 38.0 31.5 10.8 4.3 11.5 3.9 6.5
2–4 Apr Aximage 35.7 26.0 8.9 5.1 10.2 14.1 9.7
27 Mar–1 Apr Eurosondagem 42.1 29.4 9.6 6.0 8.4 4.5 12.7
17–20 Mar Marktest 37.8 31.9 12.1 4.0 10.4 3.8 5.9
3–5 Mar Aximage 33.8 28.4 9.2 4.5 8.5 15.6 5.4
20–26 Feb Eurosondagem 43.2 31.2 8.3 5.8 7.2 4.3 12.0
23–24 Feb UCP–CESOP 39.0 32.0 9.0 3.0 8.0 9.0 7.0
19–21 Feb Marktest 36.1 33.4 12.8 5.6 8.0 4.1 2.7
1–4 Feb Aximage 35.8 30.0 8.2 4.6 7.2 14.2 5.8
24–28 Jan Eurosondagem 42.5 33.0 8.0 6.3 6.9 3.3 9.5
15–18 Jan Marktest 38.1 33.5 9.9 6.3 8.4 3.8 4.6
7–9 Jan Aximage[permanent dead link‍] 35.2 31.8 9.1 4.6 6.6 12.7 3.4
2–8 Jan Eurosondagem 43.3 32.5 8.0 6.0 6.6 3.6 10.8
2008
18–21 Dec Marktest 41.0 32.5 9.5 5.4 7.8 3.8 8.5
5–7 Dec Aximage 37.0 29.2 8.5 4.4 6.7 14.2 7.8
28 Nov–4 Dec Eurosondagem 44.2 32.1 8.6 5.9 6.3 2.9 12.1
20–23 Nov Marktest 43.8 31.5 9.0 4.5 7.1 4.1 12.3
7–9 Nov Aximage 36.1 27.8 8.1 3.8 6.6 17.6 8.3
24–30 Oct Eurosondagem 45.5 31.5 8.8 5.0 5.9 3.3 14.0
20–21 Oct UCP–CESOP 41.0 35.0 9.0 6.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
16–19 Oct Marktest 36.9 35.9 12.3 2.9 8.1 3.9 1.0
2 Oct Eurosondagem 45.4 28.9 10.1 5.2 5.9 4.5 16.5
1–2 Oct Aximage 34.8 27.3 9.0 3.1 6.8 19.0 7.5
18–21 Sep Marktest 41.5 27.6 10.8 8.4 7.5 4.2 13.9
3–4 Sep Aximage 34.6 28.3 11.1 3.8 5.7 16.5 6.3
22–28 Aug Eurosondagem 45.2 30.3 9.2 5.0 5.5 4.8 14.9
14–17 Aug Marktest 42.7 28.3 9.4 7.2 8.5 3.9 14.4
7 Aug Eurosondagem 43.5 33.0 7.7 4.8 6.9 4.1 10.5
21–22 Jul Aximage 38.5 28.2 10.2 4.3 5.8 13.0 10.3
17–20 Jul Marktest 43.9 29.0 8.0 6.0 9.0 4.1 14.9
4–6 Jul Aximage 40.4 26.9 32.7 13.5
19–22 Jun Marktest 40.4 29.3 10.0 7.4 8.7 4.2 11.1
5–7 Jun Aximage 38.5 26.2 35.3 12.3
24–29 May Eurosondagem 44.6 33.4 7.7 4.0 6.6 3.7 11.2
15–18 May Marktest 46.8 27.3 8.4 5.6 8.2 3.7 19.5
30 Apr–4 May Aximage 36.7 26.7 7.6 6.0 7.0 16.0 10.0
26 Apr–2 May Eurosondagem 42.2 33.5 8.9 3.7 7.7 4.0 8.7
17–20 Apr Marktest 43.3 27.7 12.6 4.8 7.8 3.8 15.6
16–18 Apr Aximage 36.9 28.2 7.3 6.3 7.5 13.8 8.7
30 Mar–4 Apr Aximage 35.7 30.0 7.0 6.5 7.9 12.9 5.7
28 Mar–2 Apr Eurosondagem 44.2 32.3 9.5 2.7 7.4 3.9 11.9
19–21 Mar Marktest 46.5 25.8 9.2 5.7 9.0 3.8 20.7
2 Mar Eurosondagem 45.4 32.0 8.6 3.8 6.4 3.8 13.4
1–2 Mar Aximage 37.4 31.2 6.2 6.3 7.6 11.3 6.2
13–16 Feb Marktest 47.1 27.3 9.7 4.8 7.0 4.1 19.8
31 Jan–2 Feb Aximage 39.0 29.4 6.5 5.0 6.0 14.1 9.6
25–30 Jan Eurosondagem 44.4 33.3 7.8 4.4 6.7 3.4 11.1
16–19 Jan Marktest 42.7 28.4 9.2 7.6 8.3 3.8 14.3
12 Jan Eurosondagem 45.5 34.4 7.7 4.0 6.6 1.8 11.1
7–9 Jan Aximage 38.9 28.4 8.2 3.4 4.9 16.2 10.5
2007
19–22 Dec Marktest 43.1 28.5 9.8 6.7 8.3 3.6 14.6
5–7 Dec Aximage 40.9 28.6 7.1 3.0 3.9 16.5 12.3
29 Nov–5 Dec Eurosondagem 44.4 31.3 8.8 4.7 8.0 2.8 13.1
13–15 Nov Marktest 43.4 28.5 10.3 5.7 8.2 3.9 14.9
10 Nov Eurosondagem 43.7 32.2 9.2 4.6 6.9 3.4 11.5
6–8 Nov Aximage 39.4 29.3 7.2 2.8 3.9 17.4 10.1
17–20 Oct Marktest 42.0 29.7 10.6 3.9 9.7 4.1 12.3
2–4 Oct Aximage 38.2 29.7 7.3 3.4 4.7 16.7 8.5
27 Sep–3 Oct Eurosondagem 44.6 33.5 7.7 4.0 6.5 3.7 11.1
19–22 Sep Marktest 45.7 29.9 9.9 1.7 8.4 4.4 15.8
6–7 Sep Aximage 36.6 29.6 9.1 3.3 6.7 14.7 7.0
31 Aug–5 Sep Eurosondagem 44.2 34.3 7.1 5.0 5.9 3.5 9.9
15–18 Aug Marktest 44.4 30.9 9.8 2.2 8.5 4.2 13.5
18–21 Jul Marktest 43.1 31.9 9.7 2.6 8.6 4.1 11.2
29 Jun–4 Jul Eurosondagem 43.8 32.5 8.7 3.9 7.5 3.6 11.3
20–23 Jun Marktest 44.1 28.6 9.5 6.1 7.8 3.9 15.5
8 Jun Eurosondagem 43.0 34.5 8.0 4.9 6.9 2.7 8.5
2–3 Jun Aximage 36.8 31.7 7.6 3.8 5.7 14.4 5.1
16–19 May Marktest 42.1 30.2 8.2 7.0 8.5 4.0 11.9
4–5 May Aximage 37.5 32.2 8.2 4.6 3.8 13.7 5.3
26 Apr–2 May Eurosondagem 43.3 36.0 6.9 5.0 5.2 3.6 7.3
18–21 Apr Marktest 43.1 30.5 8.0 5.2 9.0 4.2 12.6
10 Apr Eurosondagem 42.4 36.6 7.7 4.7 5.0 3.6 5.8
1–3 Apr Aximage 37.8 34.2 7.6 3.8 4.4 12.2 3.6
21–24 Mar Marktest 41.9 35.1 7.2 4.0 7.8 4.0 6.8
2–7 Mar Eurosondagem 42.6 34.3 8.4 4.8 6.3 3.6 8.3
1–3 Mar Aximage 37.9 34.1 6.9 4.0 5.1 12.0 3.8
15–19 Feb Marktest 38.0 35.8 9.6 3.8 8.8 4.0 2.2
2–7 Feb Eurosondagem 41.4 36.0 8.0 5.2 5.8 3.6 5.4
1–3 Feb Aximage 37.9 34.5 6.9 4.4 7.3 9.0 3.4
5–10 Jan Eurosondagem 43.3 33.0 7.7 5.8 6.9 3.3 10.3
3–5 Jan Aximage 37.5 33.9 7.1 4.2 8.2 9.1 3.6
2006
30 Nov–2 Dec Aximage[permanent dead link‍] 35.4 34.9 7.4 4.8 7.7 9.8 0.5
15–19 Nov Marktest 35.4 37.7 9.1 5.3 8.5 4.0 2.3
7–8 Nov Aximage 35.1 33.4 8.1 4.1 7.2 12.1 1.7
18–21 Oct Marktest 37.3 36.1 8.2 5.3 9.1 4.0 1.2
17–19 Oct Aximage 35.4 32.7 7.6 3.7 8.0 12.6 2.7
9 Oct 2005 2005 local elections 35.9 39.9 10.9 3.1 3.0 7.2 4.0
22–27 Sep Eurosondagem 42.5 33.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 3.5 9.5
20–26 Sep Marktest 33.7 39.0 9.6 4.3 9.6 3.8 5.3
5–6 Sep Aximage 38.2 30.1 31.7 8.1
1–6 Sep Eurosondagem 43.0 31.9 7.8 6.2 6.8 4.2 11.1
19–22 Jul Marktest 43.0 31.2 8.2 4.0 9.4 4.2 11.8
1–5 Jul Aximage 40.4 28.4 6.5 4.5 7.2 13.0 12.0
18–20 Jun UCP–CESOP[usurped] 42.0 31.0 11.0 3.0 8.0 5.0 11.0
14–17 Jun Marktest 46.5 27.7 10.8 4.2 6.9 3.9 18.8
3–6 Jun Aximage 45.7 26.0 5.8 3.1 6.7 12.7 19.3
17–19 May Marktest 48.8 30.2 6.0 4.2 6.8 4.0 18.6
3–4 May Aximage 46.1 26.5 6.6 4.9 5.2 10.7 19.6
19–22 Apr Marktest 45.7 30.6 7.2 4.5 8.1 3.9 15.1
3–4 Apr Aximage 44.7 29.3 7.2 4.8 5.8 8.2 15.4
15–18 Mar Marktest[usurped] 51.7 26.3 6.5 5.0 6.7 3.8 25.4
20 Feb 2005 2005 legislative election 45.0
121 		28.8
75 		7.5
14 		7.2
12 		6.4
8 		5.1
0 		16.2

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d This poll provides data ranges and/or approximations. In order to simplify, the average of these data is given.

References