Next Japanese general election

Next Japanese general election

By 27 October 2028
All 465 seats in the House of Representatives 233 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Shigeru Ishiba Yoshihiko Noda Hirofumi Yoshimura Seiji Maehara Party LDP CDP Ishin Leader since 27 September 2024 23 September 2024 1 December 2024 Leader's seat Tottori 1st Chiba 14th N/A[a] Kyoto 2nd Last election 191 seats 148 seats 38 seats Current seats 191 148 38 Seats needed 42 85 195   Leader Motohisa Furukawa[b] (Interim) Tetsuo Saito Tarō Yamamoto Party DPP Komeito Reiwa Leader since 4 December 2024 9 November 2024 1 April 2019 Leader's seat Aichi 2nd Hiroshima 3rd Did not stand[c] Last election 28 seats 24 seats 9 seats Current seats 28 24 9 Seats needed 205 209 234   Leader Tomoko Tamura Sohei Kamiya Naoki Hyakuta Party JCP Sanseitō CPJ Leader since 18 January 2024[d] 30 August 2023 1 September 2023 Leader's seat Tokyo PR block Did not stand[c] N/A Last election 8 seats 3 seats 3 seats Current seats 8 3 3 Seats needed 225 230 230
Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength
Incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba LDP

The 51st general election of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2028 to elect all 465 seats of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the National Diet. Voting will take place in all constituencies, including 289 single-seat electoral districts and 176 proportional blocks.[1]

The 2024 general election resulted in a hung parliament and the formation of a minority government led by Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. An election may occur before the scheduled date if the Prime Minister dissolves Parliament for a snap election or if the House of Representatives passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely during minority governments, as the Prime Minister does not command a majority in the House of Representatives.

Background

The 2024 general election resulted in the loss of majority of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito governing coalition under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.[2]

The election will likely take place after:

• 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election (scheduled in summer 2025)

Electoral system

The 465 seats of the House of Representatives are contested via parallel voting. Of these, 289 members are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post voting, while 176 members are elected in 11 multi-member constituencies via party list proportional representation. Candidates from parties with legal political party-list, which requires either ≥5 Diet members or ≥1 Diet member and ≥2% of the nationwide vote in one tier of a recent national election, are allowed to stand in a constituency and be present on the party list. If they lose their constituency vote, they may still be elected in the proportionally allocated seats. However, if such a dual candidate wins less than 10% of the vote in their majoritarian constituency, they are also disqualified as a proportional candidate.

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Japanese general election

LOESS curve of the party identification polling for the next Japanese general election with a 7-day average

Notes

1. Currently serves as the Governor of Osaka Prefecture.
2. Party leader Yuichiro Tamaki was suspended from leadership positions for 3 months following revelations of an affair. Furukawa has been named interim chair.
3. A Member of the House of Councillors.
4. As the party's chairperson.

References

1. "選挙の種類". 総務省.
2. "Japan's ruling bloc loses lower house majority, a red flag for PM". Kyodo News. 2024-10-28.