Milton formed from a long-tracked tropical disturbance that originated in the western Caribbean Sea and consolidated in the Bay of Campeche on October 5. Gradual intensification occurred as it slowly moved eastward, becoming a hurricane early on October 7. Later that day, Milton underwent explosive intensification and became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). At peak intensity, it had a pressure of 897 millibars (26.49 inHg), making it the fifth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.[3] Milton fluctuated in intensity after an eyewall replacement cycle, re-intensifying into a Category 5 hurricane the following day.[4][5] Increasing wind shear caused the hurricane to weaken as it turned northeast towards Florida, falling to Category 3 status before making landfall near Siesta Key late on October 9.[6][7] Afterwards, Milton rapidly weakened as it moved across the state into the Atlantic Ocean, and became extratropical on October 10 as it became embedded within a frontal zone. The remnants gradually weakened and passed near the island of Bermuda before dissipating on October 12.
Ahead of the hurricane, Florida declared a state of emergency in which many coastal residents were ordered to evacuate. Preparations were also undertaken in Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. The hurricane spawned a deadly tornado outbreak and caused widespread flooding in Florida. As of October 18, 2024, Hurricane Milton killed at least 33 people: 30 in the United States and three in Mexico. Preliminary damage estimates place the total cost of destruction from the storm at over US$30 billion.[8]
Meteorological history
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) first outlined an area for possible development in the western Caribbean Sea on September 26.[9] A broad area of low pressure formed in the western Caribbean, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms[10] before degenerating into an open trough two days later.[11] The disturbance then interacted with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and a stationary front,[12] and consolidated in the Bay of Campeche. By October 4,[13] showing more signs of development, it was designated Invest 92L. The next day, as associated showers and thunderstorms organized further,[14] the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression Fourteen,[15] then to Tropical Storm Milton less than three hours later as satellite wind data indicated the storm was producing gale-force winds.[16] The system gradually strengthened as it moved erratically in the Bay of Campeche due to weak steering currents. A developing mid-level trough over the Central United States eventually helped steer Milton eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Milton's radius of maximum winds (RMW) was only 30 nautical miles (56 km), marking it as a relatively small storm.[17] Spiral banding and consistent bursts of convection continued through the early morning of October 6.[18]
By the afternoon of October 6, Hurricane Hunters had found that Milton had intensified into a hurricane, with an intermittent eye feature.[20] Overnight, Milton began to undergo explosive intensification, enabled by highly favorable environmental conditions consisting of very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 31 °C (88 °F), high mid-level relative humidity values and low wind shear. As it did so, a pinhole eye measuring 4 nautical miles (7 km) soon developed within very deep convection of around −80 °C (−112 °F),[21] with Milton becoming a major hurricane and soon after a Category 5 hurricane, by 11:00 UTC and 16:00 UTC respectively on October 7,[22][23] making it the second Category 5 hurricane of the season. Milton reached its peak intensity at 00:00 UTC on October 8 with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 897 mbar (26.49 inHg), the most intense since Wilma in 2005, making Milton the fifth-most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.[24][3] In the 24-hour period from 00:00 UTC October 7 to 00:00 UTC October 8, the pressure fell from 981 mb (28.97 inHg) to 897 mbar (26.49 inHg), a drop of 84 mb (2.48 inHg), while the winds increased by 90 mph (145 km/h) in the same time period. This was also the third-fastest period of rapid intensification in the Atlantic after Wilma and Hurricane Felix, and the fastest in the Gulf of Mexico.[25]
After peaking in intensity, further strengthening was halted by an eyewall replacement cycle, causing the storm to weaken to Category 4 intensity later that night,[26][27][28] but a larger eye became increasingly well-defined, and Milton re-achieved Category 5 intensity by the afternoon of October 8,[5] by which time the hurricane had undergone a second round of rapid deepening to a secondary peak with winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and a pressure of 902 mbar (26.64 inHg) at 00:00 UTC on October 9.[29] By this time, it began to turn towards the northeast and accelerate from the trough steering it towards Florida.[5] The next day, October 9, increasing wind shear began to affect Milton, and the storm fell below Category 5 intensity early that morning.[30] The eye of the hurricane became cloud-filled and increasingly ill-defined while the convection became more ragged-looking as strong southwesterly wind shear of 35–40 mph (56–65 km/h) overtook the hurricane.[31] Milton made landfall at about 00:30 UTC on October 10 (8:30 p.m. local time on October 9) near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).[32] Milton quickly weakened over land and emerged over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 1 hurricane while also becoming increasingly entangled within a nearby frontal boundary.[33] On the afternoon of October 10, it transitioned to a hurricane-force extratropical low.[34] The remnants of Milton gradually weakened as it passed near Bermuda on October 11, before losing definition and dissipating within the frontal zone on October 12.[citation needed]
According to scientists from Climate Central, the abnormally high sea surface temperature, which enabled the fast intensification of the hurricane, was made 400-800 times more probable due to climate change, based on the group's Climate Shift Index: Ocean (Ocean CSI) model.[35] Scientists from the World Weather Attribution center calculated that 1 day rainfall events as those happened during the hurricane produce 20%-30% more rain due to climate change while the wind speed of the hurricane increased by 10%. Using statistical modeling, the scientists hypothesized that "without climate change Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 instead of a Category 3 storm".[36]
Panic buying was observed in Mérida ahead of the storm.[46] Non-essential government services, including public transportation, were suspended in parts of Yucatán as Milton rapidly intensified on October 7.[47]GovernorJoaquín Díaz Mena ordered the closure of all schools and ports in Yucatán.[48]
On October 5, 2024, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency.[49] He also issued an executive order requiring debris management sites and landfills in counties affected by Hurricane Helene to remain open around the clock to help remove debris before Milton made landfall. The order also increased the number of Florida National Guardsmen working on debris removal from 800 to 4,000 to keep debris becoming a hazard in Milton's high winds.[50][51] Dump trucks were deployed to help remove mounds of debris.[52]Sandbagging sites opened across the state.[53]
An estimated six million Floridians were ordered to evacuate, marking one of the largest evacuation orders since Hurricane Irma in 2017. The evacuation orders were primarily situated in Hillsborough and surrounding counties.[76]Volusia and Marion counties also issued evacuation orders for homes at risk.[77][61] Throughout the Tampa Bay area, comfort stations and locations to do basic utilities that were opened due to Helene were closed due to Milton.[78] In Longboat Key, officials stated that residents should evacuate from the town.[79] In coordination with the Florida Division of Emergency Management, Uber offered free rides to and from state shelters.[80]
Zoos such as the Florida Aquarium, the Palm Beach Zoo, and the ZooTampa activated their emergency plans and moved animals into higher ground locations or secure areas such as bathrooms. A few of the workers planned on staying at the zoos to continue to monitor the animals, feed them and provide care if needed.[81][82] Some national organizations such as Wings of Rescue and Best Friends Animal Society, worked with others to evacuate shelter animals to partner shelters in other states.[83]
The National Football League's Tampa Bay Buccaneers relocated to New Orleans ahead of their game against the New Orleans Saints on October 13.[87]Publix and Walmart altered store hours and closed several other of their locations in preparation for the storm and their locations among other stores faced shortages of items such as bottled water, alcohol, canned goods, and snacks due to panic buying.[88][89] Gas station shortages occurred across the state, with 16.5% out by the afternoon of October 8, including 43% in the Tampa Bay area according to GasBuddy. Governor DeSantis said fuel replenishment efforts were underway and said that there was not a fuel shortage. The Florida Highway Patrol began escorting fuel tankers to help replenish gas stations ahead of landfall to aid in evacuation efforts. DeSantis also urged that people consider evacuating "tens of miles" instead of "hundreds of miles". The American Automobile Association advised Floridians to "take only what you need" and to avoid letting their gas tanks getting too low before looking for a place to fill up.[90][91] Thirty-three Waffle House locations in Milton's projected path were closed, indicating a red level on the Waffle House Index.[92]
President Joe Biden postponed a planned trip from October 10 to 15 to Angola and Germany in order to oversee preparations and the response and urged those living in areas at risk to evacuate, saying that it was a matter of life and death.[52]
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) suffered a staffing shortage ahead of the storm, with only 9% of the agency's staff available. According to Homeland Security SecretaryAlejandro Mayorkas, the agency remained ready to respond, saying that "we can respond to multiple events at a single time".[93] Over the previous five years at least 25% of staff remained available by October 7. This figure was lower than in 2017 when FEMA's staff availability dropped to 19% as FEMA staff responded to Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, and Hurricane Maria.[94] Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre ended a briefing, accusing journalists of spreading misinformation related to disaster funding.[95]
There were casualties involved as a result of evacuating: one fatality occurred after a car accident in Marion County southeast of Orange Lake,[96] while three people were injured after the plane they were in crashed into Tampa Bay after its engine failed while taking off from Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg.[97] In addition, two people died on eastbound SR 82 while evacuating.[98]
On October 7, 2024, Atlanta Motor Speedway opened its campground for evacuees with pop-up campers and tents with access to a complementary shower house, including those from Florida, in collaboration with the Henry County Emergency Management Agency. A limited number of camping spaces with water, power, and sewer hook-ups were made available as well.[100]
Heavy rainfall from Milton caused flooding in the city of Campeche.[119] Dangerous storm surge and torrential rainfall impacted the state of Yucatán, with the seawall at Progreso being inundated by high waves. Over 12,000 people were affected in the state by power outages.[120] Flooding from the storm surge led to evacuations being carried out during the hurricane in Celestún.[121] Strong waves caused sections of the Ciudad del Carmen–Isla Aguada federal highway to be inundated by sea waters.[122] A man and a woman drowned in Calkiní due to waves produced by the hurricane.[123][124] Heavy winds from Milton caused an old house in Progreso to collapse,[125] and heavy winds and rainfall nearly demolished a home in Chuburná.[126]
The municipalities of Sisal and Celestún suffered the most damage, with flooding, fallen trees, and blackouts affecting the cities. In Sisal, there were reports of some roofs of softball field stands and palapas collapsing. Over a thousand people from El Cuyo, Río Lagartos, and Las Coloradas needed to be transferred to shelters.[127] Heavy swells and intense winds from Milton destroyed the dock of the port of Chelem.[128]Cancún International Airport canceled several flights due to Milton.[43] Fifteen fishermen on four boats from Progreso went missing while out on the water as Milton passed.[129] Two of the ships with eight fishermen returned on October 9, while one of the missing ships, Peyucsa 12, was spotted from a Mexican Navy plane overturned about 133 mi (214 km) northeast from Progreso with one man on top a day later. The man was unable to be rescued by the plane and pilots called for a Defender-class patrol boat from the Mexican Navy in Progreso to come to his rescue. The brother of the man who was on the search plane said he saw his brother slide off the boat and into the water face first before eventually sinking before the rescue boat arrived, but the Mexican Navy has not confirmed this account.[130][116][131] On October 11, the last missing ship, Halcón I, was spotted by the Mexican Navy capsized with no crew members.[132]
Cuba
As Milton neared Cuba, its rainbands caused flooding to be reported in Surgidero de Batabanó.[133] In Havana Bay, deteriorating weather conditions from Milton caused officials to suspend ferry services on October 8.[134] The Institute of Meteorology [es] (INSMET) reported that Western Cuba experienced winds of 25–30 mph (40–48 km/h) and maximum gusts in Casablanca, Havana, of 50 mph (80 km/h).[135] Flooding was also reported in the country.[136]
United States
Initial estimates by Fitch Ratings said that Milton caused USD$30–50 billion in damage.[1]
Florida
In Marineland, sustained winds reached 83 mph (134 km/h) with gusts reaching 92 mph (148 km/h).[137] In Daytona Beach, sustained winds reached 60 mph (97 km/h) with gusts reaching 87 mph (140 km/h).[138] Gusts reached 107 mph (172 km/h) in Sarasota, 99 mph (159 km/h) in Ponce Inlet, 92 mph (148 km/h) in West Palm Beach and 86 mph (138 km/h) in Orlando.[139][140][141] Heavy rain also occurred in the state, with over 13 in (330 mm) of rain in Plant City and nearly 19 in (480 mm) in St. Petersburg, including 5.09 in (129 mm) in a single hour.[142][143][144] In Tampa, nearly 12 in (300 mm) of rain fell, which pushed the city to its wettest year on record.[145] Further east, rainfall totals exceeded 12 in (300 mm) in portions of Volusia County, and 10 in (250 mm) in Indian River County.[146][147] Rainfall totals in Flagler County were lower, but 5.61 in (142 mm) of rain was still recorded in Flagler Beach.[148] A storm surge of 5 ft (1.52 m) to 10 ft (3.04 m) was recorded from Naples to Siesta Key, including Charlotte Harbor.[149] Water levels rose over 8 ft (2.4 m) near Sarasota.[149] Naples saw a storm surge of 5.75 ft (1.75 m).[149] On the other side of the state, Daytona experienced a storm surge peak between 4 ft (1.2 m) to 4.5 ft (1.37 m).[150] The Hillsborough River crested at nearly 2 ft (.61 m) over record height Friday at Zephyrhills. At the river’s Morris Bridge site, it crested over 3 ft (.94 m) above record flood stage. [151] A reverse storm surge occurred in Tampa, however, dropping water levels by 5 ft (1.5 m).[152]
Tropicana Field, which had been set up to house first responders, lost a large part of its fiberglass roof as a result of wind gusts.[161] The Tampa Bay Times building in downtown St. Petersburg was severely damaged when a construction crane from a nearby partially built skyscraper collapsed into it. There were no reported injuries.[162]Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport lost the entire roof of Concourse B, which housed the airport's Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screening checkpoint and all 13 aircraft loading gate hold rooms.[163] Multiple areas across the state experienced significant flooding including parts of Orlando, Saint Johns, and throughout Hillsborough County.[164] Rescuers saved 565 people from a Clearwater apartment complex where flooding was neck-deep in some places.[165] Across the state, about 125 homes were destroyed before Milton made landfall, and more than 3 million homes and buildings were left without power.[166][167][168] Nearly 1,000 people and 105 animals were rescued as of October 10.[169][170] A sinkhole opened up in Hillsborough County as a result of Milton.[171]US 17/92 collapsed with a sinkhole in Orange City, as well.[172] Another sink hole opened up in Polk County which swallowed a pick up truck.[173]
The outbreak first started late on October 8 with an EF1 tornado striking the west side of Key West.[183] The next day, at least 34 tornadoes touched down during the morning and afternoon. Two EFU tornadoes moved across I-75 in the Everglades with no serious damage noted.[184] Later, an EF1 tornado caused damage in the Sky Valley neighborhood of Clewiston.[185] A low-end EF2 tornado impacted the western part of Fort Myers, causing extensive damage to homes and knocking down numerous trees in the area.[186] An EF3 tornado, the strongest recorded tornado in southwest Florida's history, struck a neighborhood in the area of Lakeport in Glades County, destroying 39 homes, before weakening and causing minor damage in Brighton Reservation.[187][185] Clusters of supercells then passed west of the Miami metropolitan area and struck the Treasure Coast, producing several tornadoes. Another EF3 tornado struck a mobile home in Wellington before weakening and traveling northward where it then restrengthened to an EF3 and damaged a shopping and residential area in western Palm Beach Gardens before weakening again and eventually dissipating in the area of Jupiter Farms.[185] At least six people were killed in St. Lucie County by a EF3 tornado that touched down at 4:30 p.m.[188][189] The same tornado also damaged dozens of homes near Fort Pierce.[190][185] A total of nine tornadoes struck the county, including three in the span of 25 minutes.[191] In all, at least nine tornadoes impacted the Treasure Coast. The final tornado was an EF1 tornado in Cocoa Beach ripped off the roof of a Wells Fargo bank.[192]
Bimini and West Grand Bahama experienced winds of around 15–20 miles per hour (24–32 km/h) and waves of two to four feet (0.61 to 1.22 m). Power and water outages occurred on a few islands. Localized flooding also occurred.[196]Grand Bahama and Abaco experienced coastal floodings and strong gusts.[197] Aarone Sargeant, the Managing Director of The Bahamas' Disaster Risk Management Authority, stated that there were no reports of injuries or significant damage,[198] with only minor damage occurring in the country.[197]
Aftermath
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Amtrak again modified their Silver Service routes between October 13 and 15 due to residual impacts after the storm.[199] Most tolls in Florida were re-instated on October 14, although exceptions were made for Orlando and Tampa.[200]
Following the storm, Taylor Swift donated $5 million to help with combined relief from Milton and Hurricane Helene, with Walmart donating $16 million.[201] On October 12, Joe Biden issued a disaster declaration for the state. By October 13, over 250,000 Floridians registered for help, which was the most in a day in national history.[202] There has also been mention that other celebrities have made contributions, such as Dolly Parton, Morgan Wallen, Blake Lively, Tom Brady and Metallica.[203]
Widespread fuel shortages occurred at gas stations after the storm. Governor Ron DeSantis opened up three fuel sites where residents can get ten gallons of fuel as a result.[204]
On October 13, Joe Biden flew to MacDill Air Force Base aboard Air Force One where he then boarded Marine One and embarked on an aerial tour of St. Petersburg before landing at Albert Whitted Airport. Biden met with state and local officials such as Senator Rick Scott, Representative Anna Paulina Luna, and Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri. Biden then departed the airport in a motorcade and traveled to St. Pete Beach where he met residents and first responders before giving a speech about the recovery efforts. During the speech, Biden announced $612 million for six Department of Energy projects to improve the resilience of electric grids in areas affected by hurricanes, which included $94 million for two projects in Florida.[207][208]
The Florida Supervisors of Elections (FSOE), in an October 15 letter addressed to Florida Secretary of StateCord Byrd and Division of Elections Director Maria Matthews, requested a lessening of election and voting restrictions in Collier, Glades, Highlands, Indian River, Manatee, Orange, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, and St. Lucie counties. Among the requests included extensions to early voting and to the deadlines for mail-in ballot delivery, notification of the location of mail-in ballot drop boxes, and the appointment of poll workers. FSOE also asked if requirements could be waived for the relocation of polling places and to authorize "immediate family members of first responders, line workers and relief workers to request mail-in ballots on their behalf.", according to Florida Politics.[209]
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