Santa Claus rally

A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January.,[1][2] According to the 2019 Stock Trader's Almanac, the stock market has risen 1.3% on average during the 7 trading days in question since both 1950 and 1969.[2][3] Over the 7 trading days in question, stock prices have historically risen 76% of the time, which is far more than the average performance over a 7-day period.

However, in the weeks prior to Christmas, stock prices have not gone up more than at other times of the year.[4][5]

In 2024-2025, the S&P 500 completed a reverse Santa Claus rally by selling off during every business day between Christmas and New Year’s, a historic first for the index.[citation needed]

The Santa Claus rally was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Trader's Almanac in 1972.[6]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed better in years following holiday seasons in which the Santa Claus rally does not materialize.[7][3]

Causes

There is no generally accepted explanation for the phenomenon.[2] The rally is sometimes attributed to the following:

  • Increased investor purchases in anticipation of the January effect[2]
  • Lighter volume due to holiday vacations makes it easier to move the market higher[3]
  • A slow down in tax-loss harvesting that depresses prices at the beginning of December[3]
  • Short sellers / pessimistic investors tend to take vacations around the holidays[2]

References

  1. ^ Ro, Sam (December 24, 2020). "Santa Claus Rally". Yahoo.
  2. ^ a b c d e KENTON, WILL (November 8, 2018). "Santa Claus Rally". Investopedia.
  3. ^ a b c d Pisani, Bob (December 21, 2018). "The Santa Claus rally: No ho-ho-ho". CNBC.
  4. ^ Hulbert, Mark (November 21, 2018). "Opinion: Santa Claus Rally is just another Christmas story". MarketWatch.
  5. ^ Agrrawal, Pankaj; Skaves, Matthew (31 August 2015). "Seasonality in Stock and Bond ETFs (2001—2014): The Months Are Getting Mixed Up but Santa Delivers on Time". The Journal of Investing. 24 (3): 129–143. doi:10.3905/joi.2015.24.3.129. S2CID 155997185.
  6. ^ Nesto, Matt (December 18, 2012). "The Santa Claus Rally: It's Not Make Believe".
  7. ^ Hulbert, Mark (January 2, 2019). "Opinion: 2018's stock-market Santa rally is leaving this message for 2019". MarketWatch.