Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana', as well as 'Sweepcash,' which can be withdrawn for real money, or donated to charity.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.[4] Sweepstakes are US only and 18+. All states are eligible except Washington, Michigan, Idaho, and Delaware.
History
Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[5]
Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[6] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[7] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[8]
Manifold is a reputation-based prediction market. The website has two forms of currency, 'Mana,' and 'Sweepcash.' Sweepcash can be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee.[10] One unit of Sweepcash is equivalent to one unit of USD. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[11]
^Frongillo, Rafael; Papireddygari, Maneesha; Waggoner, Bo (2023). "An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets". arXiv:2302.00196 [cs.GT].
