Electorate opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election


2016 Australian federal election
National results
State and territory results

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling prior to the 2016 federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the Australian House of Representatives.

New South Wales

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Reid (NSW)[1] 52% 48% −1.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[1] 50% 50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[1] 51% 49% −2.0 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW)[1] 51% 49% −2.8 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[1] 51% 49% +1.2 Notional marginal ALP ?
25 Jun 2016 Banks (NSW)[1] 52% 48% −0.8 Marginal L/NP ?
24 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW)[2] 50% 50% −13.2 Safe L/NP 628
23 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW)[3] 45% 55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP 636
23 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[3] 47% 53% −2.8 Notional marginal ALP 616
23 Jun 2016 Gilmore (NSW)[3] 47% 53% −6.8 Marginal L/NP 632
23 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −7.0 Marginal L/NP 610
23 Jun 2016 Macquarie (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −8.5 Marginal L/NP 636
23 Jun 2016 Page (NSW)[3] 46% 54% −7.1 Marginal L/NP 647
21 Jun 2016 Eden-Monaro (NSW)[4] 45% 55% −7.9 Marginal L/NP 719
21 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[4] 51% 49% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 656
21 Jun 2016 Page (NSW)[4] 48% 52% −5.1 Marginal L/NP 788
20 Jun 2016 New England (NSW)[5] 51% 49% −18.5 Safe L/NP 523
18 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW)[6] 47% 53% −6.1 Marginal L/NP ?
18 Jun 2016 Paterson (NSW)[6] 43% 57% −6.7 Notional marginal ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[7] 53% 47% 0.0 Marginal L/NP 502
17 Jun 2016 Robertson (NSW)[7] 51% 49% −2.1 Marginal L/NP 537
17 Jun 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[7] 50% 50% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 509
15 Jun 2016 Cowper (NSW)[8] 53.8% 46.2% −9.4 Safe L/NP 842
11 Jun 2016 Dobell (NSW)[9] 49% 51% −0.8 Notional marginal ALP 628
11 Jun 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[9] 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP ?
31 May 2016 Wentworth (NSW)[10] 58% 42% −10.9 Safe L/NP 626
19 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[11] 49% 51% −4.4 Marginal L/NP 628
14 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW)[12] 49% 51% −4.3 Marginal L/NP 514
14 May 2016 Banks (NSW)[13] 50% 50% −2.8 Marginal L/NP 501
14 May 2016 Dobell (NSW)[13] 50% 50% +0.2 Notional marginal ALP 504
14 May 2016 Lindsay (NSW)[13] 54% 46% +1.0 Marginal L/NP 554

Victoria

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP GRN IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[14] 53% 47% −2.6 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[14] 53% 47% −0.9 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Bruce (Vic)[14] 48% 52% −0.2 Marginal ALP ?
25 Jun 2016 McEwen (Vic)[14] 48% 52% −1.8 Marginal ALP ?
20 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic)[15] 45% 55% N/A Safe ALP 1100
17 Jun 2016 Batman (Vic)[7] 53% 47% N/A Safe ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[7] 51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP 509
17 Jun 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[7] 52% 48% −3.6 Marginal L/NP 500
13 Jun 2016 Menzies (Vic)[4] 61% 39% −3.4 Safe L/NP 719
11 Jun 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[9] 51% 49% −2.9 Marginal L/NP ?
11 Jun 2016 Deakin (Vic)[9] 52% 48% −1.2 Marginal L/NP ?
3–4 Jun 2016 Higgins (Vic)[16] 53% 47% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 1118
26 May 2016 Corangamite (Vic)[17] 54% 46% +0.1 Marginal L/NP 770
13 May 2016 Dunkley (Vic)[18] 48% 52% −7.6 Marginal L/NP ?

Queensland

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP KAP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Kennedy (Qld)[14] 42% 58% −5.8 Marginal KAP ?
25 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld)[14] 53% 47% −3.9 Fairly safe L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld)[14] 52% 48% −2.3 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Petrie (Qld)[14] 46% 54% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld)[14] 49% 51% −1.8 Marginal L/NP ?
25 Jun 2016 Griffith (Qld)[14] 47% 53% 0.0 Marginal ALP ?
17 Jun 2016 Herbert (Qld)[7] 54% 46% −2.2 Fairly safe L/NP 505
17 Jun 2016 Capricornia (Qld)[7] 50% 50% −0.8 Marginal L/NP 529
17 Jun 2016 Brisbane (Qld)[7] 51% 49% −3.3 Marginal L/NP 594
11 Jun 2016 Bonner (Qld)[9] 56% 44% +2.3 Marginal L/NP ?
2 Jun 2016 Longman (Qld)[19] 50% 50% −6.9 Fairly safe L/NP 836

Western Australia

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
18 Jun 2016 Pearce (WA)[6] 51% 49% −8.3 Fairly safe L/NP ?
18 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA)[6] 50% 50% −6.0 Fairly safe L/NP ?
17 Jun 2016 Burt (WA)[7] 48% 52% −8.1 Fairly safe L/NP ?
16 Jun 2016 Hasluck (WA)[20] 53% 47% −3.0 Fairly safe L/NP 753
11 Jun 2016 Cowan (WA)[9] 50% 50% −4.5 Marginal L/NP ?
10 May 2016 Cowan (WA)[21] 49% 51% −5.5 Marginal L/NP 731

South Australia

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP NXT L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
29 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)[22] 47% 53% +0.9 Marginal ALP 518
29 Jun 2016 Port Adelaide (SA)[22] 33% 67% −3.0 Safe ALP 500+
25 Jun 2016 Hindmarsh (SA)[14] 50% 50% −1.9 Marginal L/NP 500+
25 Jun 2016 Boothby (SA)[14] 53% 47% −4.1 Fairly safe L/NP 500+
20 Jun 2016 Barker (SA)[23] 48% 52% −18.6 Safe L/NP 869
20 Jun 2016 Adelaide (SA)[24] 51% 49% +4.9 Marginal ALP 364
17 Jun 2016 Sturt (SA)[25] 58% 42% −2.1 Safe L/NP 596
16 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA)[7] 48% 52% −14.5 Safe L/NP 681
11 Jun 2016 Mayo (SA)[9] 45.7% 54.3% −16.8 Safe L/NP ?
9 Jun 2016 Grey (SA)[26] 46% 54% −17.5 Safe L/NP 665
22 May 2016 Sturt (SA)[13] 51% 49% −9.1 Safe L/NP 762
16 May 2016 Mayo (SA)[13] 48.5% 51.5% −14.0 Safe L/NP 681

Tasmania

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP IND L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
25 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas)[1] 50% 50% −4.0 Marginal L/NP 538
25 Jun 2016 Braddon (Tas)[1] 50% 50% −2.6 Marginal L/NP 566
25 Jun 2016 Denison (Tas)[1] 35% 63% N/A Safe IND 552
25 Jun 2016 Franklin (Tas)[1] 41% 59% −3.9 Marginal ALP 550
25 Jun 2016 Lyons (Tas)[1] 45% 55% −6.2 Marginal L/NP 540
17 Jun 2016 Bass (Tas)[7] 52% 48% −2.0 Marginal L/NP 517
31 May 2016 Bass (Tas)[27] 49% 51% −5.0 Marginal L/NP 824
15 May 2016 Denison (Tas)[28] 34% 66% N/A Safe IND 596
15 May 2016 Bass (Tas)[29] 51% 49% −3.0 Marginal L/NP 632
15 May 2016 Lyons (Tas)[29] 51% 49% −0.2 Marginal L/NP 602
15 May 2016 Franklin (Tas)[29] 46% 54% +1.1 Marginal ALP 597
15 May 2016 Braddon (Tas)[29] 53% 47% +0.4 Marginal L/NP 592

Northern Territory

Date Seat 2CP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP swing Seat classification Sample size
22−23 Jun 2016 Solomon (NT)[30] 39% 61% −12.4 Marginal L/NP 513

References

Notes
Citations
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition – the Poll Bludger". 25 June 2016. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
  2. ^ "ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition - The Poll Bludger". 24 June 2016. Retrieved 24 June 2016.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Another electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 23 June 2016
  4. ^ a b c d Electorate polling round-up: Poll Bludger 21 June 2016
  5. ^ "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  6. ^ a b c d "Highlights of week six - The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Nocookies". The Australian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  8. ^ Paul Karp (15 June 2016). "Rob Oakeshott 'uplifted' after poll shows large swing against Nationals | Australia news". The Guardian. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g Mark Kenny (11 June 2016). "2016 election polls: Labor behind, Xenophon candidates set to displace Liberals". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  10. ^ Malcolm Turnbull facing 10% swing in Wentworth as his popularity plummets: SMH 5 June 2016
  11. ^ "7 News – Macarthur Poll: ReachTEL 19 May 2016". Archived from the original on 20 September 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2016.
  12. ^ "Galaxy: 54-46 to federal Coalition in Queensland – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  13. ^ a b c d e No Cookies | The Advertiser
  14. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l ReachTEL: 51-49 to Coalition
  15. ^ Richard Willingham (20 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Poll points to Greens Batman win". Theage.com.au. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  16. ^ Mark Hawthorne (13 June 2016). "Federal election 2016: Shock poll result for Kelly O'Dwyer. Is Higgins the 'Indi of 2016'?". Smh.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  17. ^ 7 News – Corangamite Poll: ReachTEL 26 May 2016
  18. ^ Libs struggling in Dunkley without Billson: The Australian 13 May 2016
  19. ^ 7 News – Longman poll – 2 July 2016: ReachTEL
  20. ^ "Blog". ReachTEL. 17 June 2016. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  21. ^ Barnett backlash dents hopes of WA Liberals: The West Australian 2 Jun 2016
  22. ^ a b Kate Ellis and Mark Butler expected to keep their seats, The Advertiser poll shows: The Advertiser 30 June 2016
  23. ^ Election 2016: Malcolm Turnbull could lose another seat to independent Nick Xenophon’s team - Herald Sun 20 June 2016
  24. ^ Labor frontbencher Kate Ellis headed for defeat to Liberals in Adelaide, ALP poll shows: The Advertiser 20 June 2016
  25. ^ No Cookies | The Advertiser
  26. ^ "Blog". ReachTEL. 10 June 2016. Archived from the original on 21 September 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  27. ^ Narrow margins for Nikolic in Bass: poll – 9news.com.au 3 Jun 2016
  28. ^ "ReachTEL Tasmanian electorates polling – The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  29. ^ a b c d "Category". The Mercury. 14 May 2016. Retrieved 15 June 2016.
  30. ^ An independent poll shows Solomon MP Natasha Griggs will struggle to retain her seat at the federal election: NT News (News Ltd) 27 June 2016