ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

This article is about the survey conducted in Europe for the European Central Bank. For the similar survey in the United States, see Survey of Professional Forecasters.

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, simply called the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the euro area issued by the European Central Bank (ECB).[1]

History

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters was started in 1999.[1][2]

In 2007, the ECB published a review of the survey based on eight years of experience.[3]

Reception

Academic research

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has been the subject of some academic research, including a 2013 paper considering whether there was a better way of combining the forecasts than simply taking the average. They found some methods of combining that did better than the average, but noted that it was not clear that these methods would continue to beat the average in the future.[4]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters". European Central Bank. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
  2. ^ Juan Angel Garcia (September 2003). "An Introduction to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters" (PDF). European Central Bank.
  3. ^ Carlos Bowles; Roberta Friz; Veronique Genre; Geoff Kenny; Aidan Meyler; Tuomas Rautanen (April 2007). "The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: A Review After Eight Years of Experience" (PDF).
  4. ^ Genre, Veronique; Kenny, Geoff; Meyler, Aidan; Timmermann, Aidan (2013). "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?". International Journal of Forecasting. 29. International Institute of Forecasters in collaboration with Elsevier: 108–121. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.06.004.