Although the Czech Republic is economically well positioned to adopt the euro, following the European debt crisis there has been considerable opposition among the public to the adoption of the euro currency.[1] There is no target date by the government for joining the ERM II or adopting the euro.[2]The cabinet that was formed following the 2017 legislative election did not plan to proceed with euro adoption within its term,[3] and this policy was continued by the succeeding cabinet formed after the 2021 election.[4] However, by the start of 2024, President Petr Pavel called on the government to take concrete steps in adopting the euro.[5]
Since joining the EU in May 2004, the Czech Republic has adopted fiscal and monetary policies that aim to align its macroeconomic conditions with the rest of the European Union. Initially, the Czech Republic planned to adopt the euro as its official currency in 2010, however evaluations in 2006 found this date to be unlikely and the target date was postponed indefinitely.[7] In February 2007, the Finance Minister said 2012 was a "realistic" date,[8] but by November 2007 this was said to be too soon.[9] In August 2008, an assessment said that adoption was not expected before 2015 due to political reluctance on the subject.[10] However, in October 2009, the then Finance Minister, Eduard Janota, stated that 2015 was no longer realistic.[11] In June 2008, the Central bank governor Zdeněk Tůma speculated about 2019.[12]
In late 2010 a discussion arose within the Czech government, partially initiated by then President Václav Klaus, a well known eurosceptic, over negotiating an opt-out from joining the eurozone. Czech Prime Minister Petr Nečas later stated that no opt-out was required because the Czech Republic could not be forced to join the ERM II and thus could decide if or when to fulfil one of the necessary criteria to join the eurozone, an approach similar to the one taken by Sweden. Nečas also stated that his cabinet would not decide upon joining the euro during its term.[13][14]
2010s
The European debt crisis further decreased the Czech Republic's interest in joining the eurozone.[15] Nečas said that since the conditions governing the eurozone had significantly changed since their accession treaty was ratified, he believed that Czechs should be able to decide by a referendum whether to join the eurozone under the new terms.[16] One of the government's junior coalition parties, TOP09, was opposed to a euro referendum.[17][18]
In April 2013, the Czech Ministry of Finance stated in its Convergence Programme delivered to the European Commission that the country had not yet set a target date for euro adoption and would not apply for ERM II membership in 2013. Their goal was to limit their time as an ERM II member, prior to acceding to the eurozone, to as brief a period as possible.[19] On 29 May 2013 Miroslav Singer, the Governor of the Czech National Bank (the Czech Republic's central bank) stated that in his professional opinion the Czech Republic will not adopt the euro before 2019.[20] In December 2013, the Czech government approved a recommendation from the Czech National Bank and Ministry of Finance against setting a formal target date for euro adoption or joining ERM II in 2014.[21]
Miloš Zeman, who was electedPresident of the Czech Republic in early 2013, supports euro adoption by the Czech Republic, though he also advocates a referendum on the decision.[22][23] Shortly after taking office in March 2013, Zeman suggested that the Czech Republic would not be ready for the switch for at least five years.[24] Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, from the Social Democrats, stated on 25 April 2013, prior to his party's election victory that October, that he was "convinced that the government that will be formed after next year's election should set the euro entry date" and that "1 January 2020 could be a date to look at".[25][26] Shortly after being sworn into the new Cabinet in January 2014, Czech Foreign Minister Lubomír Zaorálek stated that the country should join the eurozone as soon as possible.[27] The opposition TOP 09 had also run on a platform in the 2013 parliamentary election, that called for the Czech Republic to adopt the euro between 2018 and 2020.[28] In line with this, the governor of the Czech National Bank, having an advisory role towards the government about the timing of euro adoption, described 2019 as the earliest possible euro entry date.[29]
In April 2014, the Czech Ministry of Finance clarified in its Convergence Programme delivered to the European Commission, that the country had not yet set a target date for euro adoption and would not apply for ERM-II membership in 2014. Their goal was to limit their time as an ERM-II member, prior to acceding to the eurozone, to as brief a period as possible. Moreover, it was the opinion of the previous government that: "the fiscal problems of the eurozone, together with continued difficulty to predict the development of the monetary union, do not create a favorable environment for the future adoption of the euro."[30]
Zeman stated in June 2014 that he hoped his country would adopt the euro as soon as 2017, arguing that adoption would be beneficial for the Czech economy overall.[31] The opposition ODS party responded by running a campaign for Czechs to sign an anti-euro petition, handed over to the Czech Senate in November 2014, but viewed by political commentators as not having any impact on changing the government's policy to adopt the euro in the medium-term without holding a referendum on it.[32]
In December 2014, the Czech government approved a joint recommendation from the Czech National Bank and Ministry of Finance, against setting a formal target date for euro adoption or joining ERM-II during the course of 2015.[33] In March 2015, the ruling Czech Social Democratic Party adopted a policy of striving to gather political support to adopt the euro by 2020.[34] In April 2015, the coalition government announced it had agreed to not set a euro adoption target and not to enter ERM-2 until after the next legislative election scheduled for 2017, making it unlikely that the Czech Republic will adopt the euro before 2020. In addition, the coalition government agreed that if it wins re-election it would set a deadline of 2020 to agree on a specific euro adoption roadmap.[35] In June 2015, finance minister Andrej Babiš suggested a nonbinding public referendum on euro adoption.[36] The Andrej Babiš' Cabinet that was formed following the 2017 legislative election never planned to proceed with euro adoption within its term.[3]
2020s
Petr Fiala's cabinet that emerged from the 2021 legislative election, maintained the predecessor cabinets' intention not to adopt the euro within its term, calling the adoption "disadvantageous" for the Czech Republic.[4] The position not to set a target date for euro adoption and not to apply for ERM-II membership, was however only supported by one of the five ruling cabinet parties (ODS), while all the other four parties supported to start a euro adoption process.[37] Czech President Petr Pavel announced in his New Year's speech for 2024, that he supported the Czech Republic to take imminent concrete steps towards adopting the euro.[38]
In February 2024, the Czech government then appointed a commissioner for euro adoption, economist Petr Zahradnik, to oversee efforts to adopt the euro and communicate the beneficiary prospects to the Czech public.[39] Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS) however immediately called a five-party coalition summit in response, as his party still disagreed with the idea to start preparing for ERM-II membership now, and hoped the government instead could negotiate and reach a new joint position on this issue - more closely aligned with the viewpoint of ODS.[40] The Czech minister for European affairs, Martin Dvořák, at the other side proposed a timeline of joining ERM-II before the general elections in late 2025 and adopting the euro on 1 January 2030.[41] The coalition summit resulted in a new common government policy on the issue, first cancelling the post of the recently appointed euro adoption commissioner, and then instead ordering an expert panel advice by October 2024 on the merits of joining ERM-II. The government will now await the report of the expert panel, before taking any further decisions about ERM-II membership or euro adoption.[42] In November 2024, Fiala announced that the decision on the eventual adoption of the euro would not be taken before the end of his government, hence postponing the decision after the next parliamentary election, in October 2025.[43]
The 1992 Maastricht Treaty originally required that all members of the European Union join the euro once certain economic criteria are met. The Czech Republic meets two of the five conditions for joining the euro as of June 2022[update]; their inflation rate, not being a member of the European exchange rate mechanism, and the incompatibility of its domestic legislation are the conditions not met.
Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past),[108] then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion.[109][110] Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance.[110]
Criterion not fulfilled
Notes
^The rate of increase of the 12-month average HICP over the prior 12-month average must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
^The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10-year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not to be included in the calculation of the reference value.
^The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012.[86]
^Sweden, Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states.[86]
^ abcdefghThe maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.
^Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states, with Ireland excluded as an outlier.[86]
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013.[89]
^ abSweden, Latvia and Ireland were the reference states.[89]
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014.[92]
^Latvia, Portugal and Ireland were the reference states, with Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus excluded as outliers.[92]
^Latvia, Ireland and Portugal were the reference states.[92]
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2016.[95]
^Bulgaria, Slovenia and Spain were the reference states, with Cyprus and Romania excluded as outliers.[95]
^Slovenia, Spain and Bulgaria were the reference states.[95]
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2018.[98]
^Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[98]
^Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states.[98]
^Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2020.[101]
^Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[101]
^Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states.[101]
^Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2022.[104]
^ abFrance, Finland, and Greece were the reference states.[104]
^Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2024.[106]
^ abBelgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands were the reference states.[106]
^"Euro je v Česku reálné v roce 2012, míní MF" [Adoption of euro in Czech Republic is realistic in 2012, says the Ministry of Finance]. Novinky.cz (in Czech). 2007-02-21. Archived from the original on 2007-09-27. Retrieved 2007-08-25.
^Pop, Valentina (28 October 2011). "Czech PM mulls euro referendum". EUObserver. Retrieved 28 October 2011. "The conditions under which the Czech citizens decided in a referendum in 2003 on the country's accession to the EU and on its commitment to adopt the single currency, euro, have changed. That is why the ODS will demand that a possible accession to the single currency and the entry into the European stabilisation mechanism be decided on by Czech citizens," the ODS resolution says.
^ abcde"Zavedení eura v ČR" (Press release) (in Czech). Středisko empirických výzkumů. 2011-01-31. Archived from the original on 2014-12-29. Retrieved 2011-06-28.
