2023 Mulgrave state by-election

2023 Mulgrave state by-election
← 2022 18 November 2023 2026 →
Electoral district of Mulgrave in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
Registered47,142
Turnout38,156 (80.94%) Increase 3.3%
  First party Second party
 
IND
Candidate Eden Foster Ian Cook
Party Labor Independent
Popular vote 14,481 6,780
Percentage 40.18% 18.81%
Swing Decrease 10.82 Increase 0.80
TCP 56.49% 43.51%
TCP swing Decrease 4.34 Increase 4.34
  Third party Fourth party
 
Rhonda_Garad.png
Candidate Courtney Mann Rhonda Garad
Party Liberal Greens
Popular vote 7,817 2,153
Percentage 21.69% 5.97%
Swing Increase 4.50 Increase 0.89
Results of the by-election by postcode
MP before election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Elected MP

Eden Foster
Labor

One of the ten polling places for the by-election

The 2023 Mulgrave state by-election was held on 18 November 2023 to elect the next member for Mulgrave in the Victorian Legislative Assembly, following the resignation of Victorian Premier and incumbent MP Daniel Andrews.[1]

Background

Resignation of Daniel Andrews

At a media conference on 26 September 2023, Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as premier, leader of the Victorian Labor Party, and member for Mulgrave, to take effect the following day. The resignation came exactly 10 months into his four year elected term as member for Mulgrave. He cited thoughts of life following his premiership, which he felt meant "it is time to go".[2][3]

Following the 2022 Victorian state election Daniel Andrews had committed to govern and remain in Parliament for a full four year term.[4]

Seat details

Mulgrave has been represented in the Victorian Legislative Assembly on two separate occasions. Its first appearance as an electoral district was during the 1958 Victorian state election, when it was captured by Ray Wiltshire of the Victorian Liberal Party. At the time, Mulgrave was regarded as a secure stronghold for the Liberal Party as its two-party-preferred vote never reached below 60 per cent. Wiltshire continued to serve as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Mulgrave until the 1967 Victorian state election, when the district was abolished. Subsequently, it was replaced by Syndal which Wiltshire represented until his retirement in 1976. The electorate was reestablished at the 2002 Victorian state election, replacing Dandenong North and won by Daniel Andrews who had held the seat up until his resignation in 2023.

Demographics

At the 2021 Australian census, Mulgrave had a median age of 40, slightly higher than the state and the rest of Australia. The electorate also boasts a significant population with Chinese ancestry comprising 17% of its residents, compared to the state where the rate is 6%. There are also large Vietnamese and Greek communities. Furthermore, 30% of Mulgrave's residents have attained a bachelor's degree or higher, and the median weekly personal income stands at $693.[5]

Two-party-preferred vote in Mulgrave, 2002–2022
Election 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
  Labor 66.20% 65.60% 58.48% 54.50% 62.71% 60.20%
  Liberal 33.80% 35.40% 41.52% 45.50% 37.30% 39.80%
Government ALP ALP L/NP ALP ALP ALP

2022 results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly) § Mulgrave.[edit]
2022 Victorian state election: Mulgrave[6][7][8][9]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Daniel Andrews 19,365 51.0 −8.5
Independent Ian Cook 6,838 18.0 +18.0
Liberal Michael Piastrino 6,528 17.2 −11.0
Greens Robert Lim 1,930 5.1 −1.3
Freedom Aidan McLindon 824 2.2 +2.2
Family First Jane Foreman 749 2.0 +2.0
Animal Justice David Mould 419 1.1 +0.9
Democratic Labour Maree Wood 327 0.9 −1.3
Independent Fotini Theodossopoulou 305 0.8 +0.8
Independent Andrew King 173 0.4 +0.4
Ind. (PIBCI) Joseph Toscano 155 0.4 +0.4
Independent Anne Moody 146 0.4 +0.4
Independent Howard Lee 120 0.3 +0.3
Independent Ezra J. D. Isma 92 0.2 +0.2
Total formal votes 37,924 91.2 −2.7
Informal votes 3,650 8.7 +2.7
Turnout 41,574 88.4 +3.3
Notional two-party-preferred count
Labor Daniel Andrews 22,976 60.2 −5.6
Liberal Michael Piastrino 15,191 39.8 +5.6
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Daniel Andrews 23,070 60.8 −5.0
Independent Ian Cook 14,854 39.2 +39.2
Labor hold Swing −5.0

Candidates

Election poster for the Libertarian Party
Election poster for the Labor Party
Party Candidate Background
Libertarian Ethelyn King Candidate for South-East Metro at the 2022 Victorian election.[10]
Sustainable Australia Celeste Ackerly Student[11]
Independent Ian Cook Former businessman and candidate for Mulgrave at the 2022 Victorian election.[12]
Family First Jane Foreman Candidate for Mulgrave at the 2022 Victorian election.[13]
Liberal Courtney Mann Political staffer, educator, and candidate for Mulgrave at the 2010 Victorian election.[14]
Victorian Socialists Kelly Cvetkova Retail worker, student and candidate for Thomastown at the 2022 Victorian election.[15]
Greens Rhonda Garad Greater Dandenong Councillor[16]
Labor Eden Foster Mayor of Greater Dandenong[17]
Independent Tina Theodossopoulou Landscaper and candidate for Mulgrave at the 2022 Victorian election.[18]
Animal Justice Bronwyn Currie Perennial candidate, HR consultant and activist.[19]

Party how to vote Cards

Preferences as listed on each parties how to vote card
Party LBT SAP Ian C. FFV LIB VS GRN ALP T.T. AJ
Libertarian 1 2 4 2 10 7 5 3 6
Sustainable Australia 6 1 3 6 6 5 5 6 6 4
Ian Cook 2 1 3 3 9 8 7 4 9
Family First 3 4 1 4 8 10 8 5 10
Liberal 4 5 5 1 6 6 9 2 7
Victorian Socialists 10 8 9 10 1 3 3 10 2
Greens 8 9 10 9 2 1 2 9 3
Labor 7 10 7 8 4 4 1 8 5
Tina Theodossopoulou 5 6 2 5 7 9 10 1 8
Animal Justice 9 7 8 7 3 2 4 7 1

[20]

Results

2023 Mulgrave state by-election[21][22]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Eden Foster 14,481 40.18 −10.82
Liberal Courtney Mann 7,817 21.69 +4.50
Independent Ian Cook 6,780 18.81 +0.80
Greens Rhonda Garad 2,153 5.97 +0.89
Victorian Socialists Kelly Cvetkova 1,315 3.65 +3.65
Family First Jane Foreman 1,111 3.08 +1.11
Libertarian Ethelyn King 1,046 2.90 +2.90
Independent Tina Theodossopoulou 662 1.84 +1.04
Animal Justice Bronwyn Currie 403 1.12 +1.12
Sustainable Australia Celeste Ackerly 276 0.77 +0.77
Total formal votes 36,044 94.46 +3.13
Informal votes 2,112 5.54 −3.13
Turnout 38,156 80.94 −7.46
Notional two-party-preferred count
Labor Eden Foster 19,704 54.67 −5.53
Liberal Courtney Mann 16,340 45.33 +5.53
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Eden Foster 20,363 56.49 −4.34
Independent Ian Cook 15,681 43.51 +4.34
Labor hold Swing −4.34


See also

References

  1. ^ Eddie, Rachel; Carmody, Broede (26 September 2023). "Daniel Andrews to stand down as Victorian premier immediately". The Age. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  2. ^ Ore, Adeshola (26 September 2023). "Daniel Andrews resignation: Anthony Albanese 'surprised' by announcement". The Guardian. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  3. ^ Bennett, Emily (26 September 2023). "How Australians reacted to the resignation of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews". Nine News. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  4. ^ Durkin, Patrick; McCubbing, Gus (27 November 2022). "Emboldened Andrews promises to lead progressive march with PM". Archived from the original on 17 November 2023. Retrieved 31 October 2023. Mr Andrews said he was committed to govern for a full, four-year term after securing a clear majority in the Victorian state election, despite suffering a statewide swing of almost 6 per cent against Labor.
  5. ^ Australian Bureau of Statistics (28 June 2022). "Mulgrave (South-Eastern Metropolitan)". 2021 Census QuickStats. Retrieved 28 September 2023. Edit this at Wikidata
  6. ^ Green, Antony (11 January 2023). "VIC22 – 2-Party Preferred Results and Swings by District". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 28 January 2023.
  7. ^ VIC 2021 Final Redistribution, ABC News. [Retrieved 1 January 2023.
  8. ^ Mulgrave District results, Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  9. ^ Full preference distributions – 2022 State election, Victorian Electoral Commission. [Retrieved 17 June 2023.
  10. ^ Limbrick, David [@_davidlimbrick] (17 October 2023). "I'm proud to announce that Ethelyn King is the very first Libertarian Party candidate, running for the seat of Mulgrave" (Tweet). Archived from the original on 17 November 2023 – via Twitter.
  11. ^ "2023 Mulgrave by-election - 18 November 2023". Sustainable Australia Party (Press release). Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  12. ^ "I Cook Foods boss says 'the people of Mulgrave have been neglected by the Premier for years'". Herald Sun.
  13. ^ Shelton, Lyle (24 October 2023). "Media release: Cost of living, protecting kids is Family First's focus in Mulgrave". Family First Party Australia (Press release). Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  14. ^ Hevesi, Bryant (26 October 2023). "Mulgrave by-election: Former candidate and John Pesutto staffer Courtney Mann wins preselection for the Liberal Party". Sky News Australia. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  15. ^ "Announcing our candidate for the Mulgrave by-election". Victorian Socialists (Press release). 29 September 2023. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  16. ^ "Local Councillor Rhonda Garad Announced As Greens' Mulgrave Candidate, The Real Opposition This Election". Australian Greens Victoria (Press release). 19 October 2023. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  17. ^ Lucadou-Wells, Cam (6 October 2023). "Mayor running for Mulgrave". Dandenong Star Journal. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  18. ^ "Tina Theodossopoulou, one of ten independents in the Mulgrave by-election". Neos Kosmos. 12 November 2023. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  19. ^ "Announcing Bronwyn Currie for Mulgrave!". Animal Justice Party (Press release). 2 November 2023. Archived from the original on 17 November 2023.
  20. ^ VEC. "Mulgrave District by-election how-to-vote card archive". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Retrieved 21 January 2024.
  21. ^ "Results - Mulgrave by-election 2023". ABC News.
  22. ^ "Mulgrave District by-election results". Victorian Electoral Commission.