2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

February 27, 2016 (2016-02-27)

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 39 14 Popular vote 272,379 96,498 Percentage 73.44% 26.02%

County results Clinton:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%

The 2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 27 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Clinton won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a landslide margin of more than 47%, receiving a larger percentage of the African American vote than Obama, the first black President, did in 2008.[1]

With the Republican Party having already held its South Carolina primary a week earlier on February 20, the Democratic primary in South Carolina was the only presidential primary on that day.

Debates and forums

November 2015 forum in Rock Hill

See also: Democratic Party presidential debates, 2016

Rachel Maddow was selected to moderate the First in the South Candidates Forum with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley, which was held at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on November 6, co-sponsored by the Democratic Parties of 13 southern states.[2] The forum was not in debate format; instead, each candidate was interviewed individually and sequentially.[3] Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also invited, but their campaigns never responded to the invitations,[4] and both have since withdrawn from the race. A Public Policy Poll of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted from November 7–8, after the forum, discovered that 67% of viewers thought Clinton won the forum, 16% thought Sanders won, and 6% thought O'Malley won, with 11% unsure.[5]

January 2016 debate in Charleston, South Carolina

Main article: Fourth Democratic Party presidential debate, January 2016 in Charleston, South Carolina

On January 17, 2016, the Democratic Party held a fourth debate at the Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina. Hosted by Lester Holt and Andrea Mitchell, the debate aired on NBC News and was streamed on YouTube. It was also sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. It was notable as being the final debate before the start of precinct caucuses and primary voting. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley. It was the final debate appearance of O'Malley, who suspended his campaign on February 1.

Both before and after the debate, commentators said the debate was focused on Sanders and his voting record on gun control and slights against President Obama, among other issues. During the debate, O'Malley interrupted to take 30 seconds to talk about "homeland security and preparedness".[6] Also during the debate, Clinton and Sanders had some back-and-forth exchanges to define themselves on Wall Street, foreign policy, and gun control.[6]

Opinion polling

See also: Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Delegate count: 53 Pledged, 6 Unpledged

Winner: Hillary Clinton
Primary date: 27 February 2016

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Official Primary results[7]	February 27, 2016	Hillary Clinton 73.4%	Bernie Sanders 26.0%		Others 0.6%
Clemson[8] Margin of error: 3.0% Sample size: 650	February 20–25, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64%	Bernie Sanders 14%		Others / Undecided 22%
Emerson College[9] Margin of error: 6.0% Sample size: 266	February 22–24, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 37%		Others / Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[10] Margin of error: 4.8% Sample size: 425	February 15–17, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 32%		Other 8%
Bloomberg Politics[11] Margin of error: 4.9% Sample size: 403	February 13–17, 2016	Hillary Clinton 53%	Bernie Sanders 31%		Not sure 16%
ARG[12] Margin of error: 5% Sample size: 400	February 14–16, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 31%	Someone else 1%	No opinion 7%
Public Policy Polling[13] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 525	February 14–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 34%		Undecided 12%
CNN/ORC[14] Margin of error: 6% Sample size: 289	February 10–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 56%	Bernie Sanders 38%	Someone else 3%	No opinion 4%
ARG[15] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 12–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 65%	Bernie Sanders 27%		Other 1%, Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News[16] Margin of error: ± 8.7% Sample size: 404	February 10–12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 59%	Bernie Sanders 40%		No Preference 1%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[17] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 446	January 17–23, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64%	Bernie Sanders 27%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News[18] Margin of error: ± 9.4% Sample size: 388	January 17–21, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 38%	Martin O'Malley 0%	Undecided 2%
SC New Democrats[19] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 583	January 12–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 47%	Bernie Sanders 28%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 22%

Polls in 2015

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
YouGov/CBS News[20] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 420	December 13–17, 2015	Hillary Clinton 67%	Bernie Sanders 31%	Martin O'Malley 2%	No Preference 0%
Fox News[21] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 364	December 5–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 65%	Bernie Sanders 21%	Martin O'Malley 3%	Other 1%, None of the Above 7%, DK 3%
YouGov/CBS News[22] Margin of error: ± 6.0% Sample size: 420	November 15–19, 2015	Hillary Clinton 72%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 1%
Public Policy Polling[23] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400	November 7–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 72%	Bernie Sanders 18%	Martin O'Malley 5%	Unsure 5%
Monmouth University[24] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400	November 5–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 69%	Bernie Sanders 21%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Other 1% No Preference 8%
Winthrop University[25] Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 832	October 24 – November 1, 2015	Hillary Clinton 71%	Bernie Sanders 15%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Refused 2% Undecided 9% Wouldn't Vote 1%
YouGov/CBS News[26] Margin of error: ± 8.2% Sample size: 427	October 15–22, 2015	Hillary Clinton 68%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 4%
Clemson Palmetto[27] Margin of error: 4.0% Sample size: 600	October 13–23, 2015	Hillary Clinton 43%	Bernie Sanders 6%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Undecided 50%
CNN/ORC[28] Margin of error: 5.5% Sample size: 301	October 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 49%	Joe Biden 24%	Bernie Sanders 18%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Someone else 1%, None/No one 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing[29] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: ?	September 25–27, 2015	Hillary Clinton 50%	Joe Biden 19%	Bernie Sanders 13%	Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Unsure 17%
YouGov/CBS News[30] Margin of error: ± 6.8% Sample size: 528	Sep. 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 46%	Bernie Sanders 23%	Joe Biden 22%	No preference 8%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%
Public Policy Polling[31] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 302	Sep. 3–6, 2015	Hillary Clinton 54%	Joe Biden 24%	Bernie Sanders 9%	Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb 2%; Lincoln Chafee 1%
Gravis Marketing[32] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 209	July 29–30, 2015	Hillary Clinton 78%	Bernie Sanders 8%	Elizabeth Warren 6%	Joe Biden 6%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%
Morning Consult[33] Margin of error: ? Sample size: 309	May 31 – June 8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 56%	Joe Biden 15%	Bernie Sanders 10%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Someone else 2% Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling[34] Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 252	February 12–15, 2015	Hillary Clinton 59%	Joe Biden 18%	Elizabeth Warren 10%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 8%
NBC News/Marist[35] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 352	February 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 65%	Joe Biden 20%	Bernie Sanders 3%	Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Undecided 8%

Polls in 2014

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Clemson University[36] Margin of error: ±6% Sample size: 400	May 26 – June 2, 2014	Hillary Clinton 50%	Joe Biden 12%	Andrew Cuomo 2%	Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Undecided/Don't know 35%

Results

South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	272,379	73.44%	39	5	44
Bernie Sanders	96,498	26.02%	14	0	14
Willie Wilson	1,314	0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	713	0.19%
Uncommitted			0	1	1
Total votes	370,904	100%	53	6	59
Sources: [37][38]

Results by county

Clinton won every county.[39]

County	Clinton	%	Sanders	%	Others	Total votes cast	Turnout as % of total registered electors	Margin as % of votes cast in primary
Abbeville	1,508	81.91%	312	16.95%	21	1,841	12.45%	64.96%
Aiken	6,889	70.17%	2,877	29.31%	51	9,883	9.41%	40.87%
Allendale	1,022	90.84%	95	8.44%	8	1,137	19.43%	82.40%
Anderson	5,576	66.79%	2,712	32.48%	61	8,401	7.54%	34.30%
Bamberg	1,710	89.20%	197	10.28%	10	1,928	20.08%	78.93%
Barnwell	1,561	87.45%	209	11.71%	15	1,800	13.50%	75.74%
Beaufort	9,970	73.30%	3,575	26.28%	56	13,664	13.21%	47.02%
Berkeley	9,485	71.96%	3,592	27.25%	104	13,264	12.04%	44.71%
Calhoun	1,536	86.05%	241	13.50%	8	1,809	17.31%	72.55%
Charleston	26,625	65.97%	13,527	33.47%	228	40,508	15.34%	32.50%
Cherokee	1,877	77.95%	514	21.35%	17	2,427	7.91%	56.60%
Chester	1,962	79.63%	492	19.97%	10	2,477	12.23%	59.66%
Chesterfield	2,209	82.80%	446	16.72%	13	2,696	10.71%	66.08%
Clarendon	3,571	90.87%	337	8.58%	22	3,976	17.17%	82.29%
Colleton	2,939	81.86%	584	16.40%	37	3,592	14.89%	66.15%
Darlington	4,990	81.86%	1,081	17.73%	25	6,148	14.49%	64.12%
Dillon	1,659	84.00%	302	15.29%	14	1,993	10.33%	68.71%
Dorchester	6,934	70.21%	2,885	29.21%	57	9,929	10.54%	41.00%
Edgefield	1,474	81.80%	301	16.70%	27	1,822	11.46%	65.09%
Fairfield	3,265	87.46%	440	11.76%	28	3,754	24.35%	75.68%
Florence	9,433	78.00%	2,594	21.45%	67	12,196	14.53%	55.55%
Georgetown	4,941	77.82%	1,350	21.26%	58	6,402	15.69%	56.56%
Greenville	19,966	63.95%	11,118	35.61%	138	31,398	10.56%	28.34%
Greenwood	3,623	77.46%	987	21.10%	67	4,710	11.82%	56.36%
Hampton	1,933	87.98%	241	10.97%	23	2,202	17.27%	77.01%
Horry	11,316	67.25%	5,457	32.43%	54	16,916	8.95%	34.82%
Jasper	2,195	85.08%	355	13.76%	30	2,594	15.48%	71.32%
Kershaw	3,761	77.10%	1,093	22.41%	24	4,914	12.32%	54.69%
Lancaster	3,346	72.96%	1,221	26.62%	19	4,615	8.98%	46.34%
Laurens	2,978	78.53%	801	21.12%	13	3,831	10.25%	57.41%
Lee	2,209	87.66%	288	11.43%	23	2,548	21.40%	76.23%
Lexington	8,847	60.93%	5,611	38.65%	61	14,572	8.69%	22.29%
Marion	3,361	85.37%	552	14.05%	23	3,978	18.42%	71.32%
Marlboro	2,137	88.97%	253	10.53%	12	2,412	13.60%	78.43%
McCormick	973	85.05%	162	14.16%	9	1,161	17.18%	70.89%
Newberry	2,121	80.92%	471	17.97%	29	2,641	11.77%	62.95%
Oconee	1,960	59.61%	1,304	39.66%	24	3,305	6.93%	19.95%
Orangeburg	11,872	88.64%	1,473	11.00%	49	13,515	23.74%	77.64%
Pickens	2,503	55.43%	1,995	44.18%	18	4,528	6.90%	11.25%
Richland	39,332	75.75%	12,354	23.79%	238	52,136	21.73%	51.96%
Saluda	1,023	83.72%	192	15.71%	7	1,237	10.97%	68.00%
Spartanburg	10,674	70.27%	4,467	29.41%	49	1,237	9.17%	40.86%
Sumter	9,830	86.61%	1,443	12.71%	77	15,239	17.42%	73.89%
Union	1,690	83.37%	332	16.38%	5	11,432	11.99%	67.00%
Williamsburg	4,613	88.52%	557	10.69%	41	5,272	23.90%	77.84%
York	8,890	63.40%	5,127	36.20%	57	14,216	9.26%	27.20%
Total	272,379	73.44%	96,498	26.02%	2,027	373,063	12.60%	47.42%

Delegates[40]

Analysis

As South Carolina's majority-black Democratic electorate had dealt a severe death-blow to Clinton's 2008 presidential effort against Barack Obama, it gave her campaign new life in 2016. Clinton won the primary in a 47-point routing thanks to ardent support from African American voters. According to exit polls, Clinton won the black vote 86–14, which comprised 61% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina; she won among black women 89-11 who comprised 37% of the electorate. Clinton's near-unanimous support from black voters was fueled by their interest in a continuation of President Obama's policies,[41] and by black women who wanted to see a woman elected.[42]

Clinton won every county statewide. She won in upcountry 66–34, Piedmont 74–25, Central South Carolina, including the region which is majority African American 78–22, Pee dee/Waccamaw 83–17, and lowcountry 70–30.[43] She also swept the major cities of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Rock Hill.

References

1. "Black Voters Boost Clinton in South Carolina". ABC News. February 28, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2016.
2. "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow to moderate 2016 Democratic forum at Winthrop". The State. October 7, 2015.
3. "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow will bring Southern focus to forum". Charlotte Observer. November 4, 2015.
4. "S.C. Democrats to host three presidential candidates in Rock Hill". Greenvilleonline.com. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
5. "Three Republican candidates speak at anti-gay pastor's rally". MSNBC. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
6. Fix, Team (January 17, 2016). "The 4th Democratic debate transcript, annotated: Who said what and what it meant". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 18, 2016.
7. Official Primary Results
8. "Clemson University Palmetto Poll Democratic primary summary". Retrieved February 26, 2016.
9. "EMERSON POLL: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY A WIDE MARGIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
10. "Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll". Retrieved February 19, 2016.
11. "Clinton Strong in South Carolina But Warning Signs Ahead, Bloomberg Poll Shows". Retrieved February 18, 2016.
12. "South Carolina primary: ARG Poll". Retrieved February 17, 2016.
13. http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html
14. "South Carolina primary: CNN/ORC poll full results". Retrieved February 16, 2016.
15. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748
16. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. February 14, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
17. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 South Carolina Questionnaire" (PDF). Retrieved February 5, 2016.
18. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. January 24, 2016. Retrieved January 24, 2016.
19. SC New Democrats
20. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF).
21. Fox News
22. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
23. "Trump Still Leads But Declining in SC; Clinton Dominant" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
24. "South Carolina: Clinton with Big Lead" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2015.
25. "Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll – Current Findings". winthrop.edu.
26. "PDF file" (PDF). Retrieved October 12, 2015.
27. "SC Poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
28. "CNN SC poll". Retrieved November 5, 2015.
29. "The Buzz". Retrieved October 1, 2015.
30. Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
31. "The Buzz". Retrieved September 9, 2015.
32. "SC polling" (PDF). Retrieved August 4, 2015.
33. "Morning Consult SC" (PDF). morningconsult.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
34. Public Policy Polling
35. NBC News/Marist
36. Clemson University
37. The Green Papers
38. South Carolina State Election Commission
39. "South Carolina Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates - POLITICO".
40. The South Carolina Democratic Party - State Election Results Archived October 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
41. Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (February 27, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
42. Hannah-jones, Nikole (February 26, 2016). "For Black Women in South Carolina, It's Clinton's Turn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
43. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 18, 2016.